CHINA AND GREECE HOLDING DOWN THE ASIAN PRICE LISTS
Piazza Affari referees the duel over RCS
New shadows from China and new fears about the future moves of the Fed. The week of the markets starts in Asia conditioned by these "twin fears". Marked decline in Hong Kong and Shanghai, around two percentage points, more limited in Tokyo -0,30% thanks to the devaluation of the yen over 100 against the dollar. Japan is preparing for the next elections on July 21 which could deliver an overwhelming majority to Shinzo Abe, allowing the prime minister to accelerate the progress of reforms.
The markets restart in Europe after the unprecedented decoupling on the interest rate front between the US and Europe: the American jobs data, announced on Friday the day after Mario Draghi's reassurances on rates, sent the dollar into orbit: the euro/dollar cross it moved to 1,283, on the levels of five weeks ago. The US quarterly season starts tonight.
Meanwhile, the US T bond has shot up 24 basic points to 2,68%, a level not seen since August 2011. The Federal Reserve's lack of bond purchases has caused major swings in the government bond market . Among the victims of the strengthening dollar is gold, which plunged to 2.111 dollars an ounce, down 3%.
In this context, the different path during 2013 between the US markets and the Old Continent catches the eye: S&P +14% at the beginning of the year, Eurostoxx -1,51%, Ftse/Mib – 4,55%.
Oil is also up: Wti at 102,4 dollars/barrel (+1,1%), Brent at 107 dollars (+1,3%).
THE EU ADDRESSES THE GREEK CASE. TREASURY AUCTIONS ARE BACK
Treasury auctions are underway, the first after Mario Draghi's historic leap: "the main ECB rates are expected to remain at current levels or at lower values for an extended period of time", an expression similar to the one used by Ben Bernanke in March 2009 and maintained until August 2011.
Confident that the guidance given by Frankfurt will have at least the same duration, the Italian Treasury returns to the field, in the hope that the level of sovereign yields will cool down, despite the signals from the USA.
We start on Wednesday with the 3 and 12 month Bots. Thursday will be the turn of the three-year BTPs.
In the meantime, the Greece dossier is once again topical in Brussels today. The preision is for a conditional yes (in installments) for aid to Athens, which is behind schedule for cuts in public spending.
COUNTDOWN TO THE RCS DUEL
Spotlights on in Piazza Affari on the great duel for control of RCS Media Group. The auction on unexercised rights will begin on Wednesday and could last five days if the full house is not sold out first. The 15% not subscribed by the shareholders will be auctioned but, to define the balance of power, a 1% of the capital will also have to be counted which has so far escaped the census between those who have subscribed and those who have not. For now, in fact, the map says in order: Fiat (21,35%), Mediobanca (15,14%), Della Valle (8,8%), Fonsai (5,54%), Pirelli (5,3 %), Intesa (5,018%), followed by the Rotelli heirs (4,18% considering the share optioned by Banco Popolare), Italmobiliare (3,7%) plus 6% distributed among Edison, Edizione holdin, Mittel, Generali, Sinpar, Eridania and Francesco Merloni.
The picture could be revolutionized if Diego Della Valle, as announced, proceeds to rake in all the unopted rights, thus climbing to first place. Without excluding a counteroffensive by Fiat or other competitors, old and new, called into question by the duelists. The outcome of the challenge will probably be known as early as Wednesday evening: the regulation of the increase provides that on the first day the consortium must accept the incoming purchase proposals, while in the following four days the banks will be able to decide not to sell the securities in their possession .
QUARTERLY TESTS AT WALL STREET. SUPERSTAR BANKS
Tonight, as mentioned, the quarterly season of Wall Street opens with Alcoa's accounts, awaited with particular attention by operators to understand how far Corporate America can now go without the support of QE.
On Friday, optimism dominated the banking sector. 15 days after the release of the results for the second quarter of 2013, Morgan Stanley has published a study in which it says that the major US banks could beat expectations thanks to the recovery of home loans in recent months.
Spotlights also on technology. The rise in the dollar could have significant repercussions on the profits of the tech giants which make a large part of their profits in Europe and Asia.
The forecasts are conflicting. As many as 87 companies that make up the S&P 500 index have launched a profit waning in recent weeks. Among the hardest-hit sectors, basic materials, industrials and technology make most of their profits in Europe and Asia and are set to feel the impact of the dollar's appreciation on foreign earnings.
FIAT ACCELERATES TOWARDS DETROIT
Great expectation around Fiat. Not only for the developments of the Rcs MediaGroup match. Already this morning the Lingotto will announce the exercise of the option on a 3,5% share of the Chrysler capital in the hands of the Uaw union. The total percentage of Fiat thus rises to 68,5% of which, however, 14% sub judice: between Uaw and Fiat, in fact, a lawsuit over the price is underway in the Delaware court which is pressing for an out-of-court settlement.
Meanwhile, the Cnh-Fiat Industrial merger is in the pipeline. The last meeting of Fiat Industrial will be held tomorrow, destined to take the name of CNH Industrial. The company will be listed on Wall Street but will maintain a "flagship" presence on Piazza Affari. After the assembly Sergo Marhionne wanted to Atessa, seat of the Sevel establishment. He will announce new investments, also in the absence of the Speaker of the Chamber Laura Boldrini.
Eni fell on Friday - 2,2%, the company most exposed on the Egyptian arena. Italcementi +5% despite the problems of the Egyptian subsidiary.
Also pulling down the Milan Stock Exchange were Enel -1,8%, Tenaris -2%, Snam +1,7%.
In evidence the landslide of Telecom Italia -3% after the failure of the negotiations with H3g.
In great evidence Fondiaria Sai + 2,4% and Unipol +4%.
Out of the main basket on Yoox historical highs +5%.
