ECONOMIC HANDS FOR SEPTEMBER 2026 – Why does the global economy continue to grow despite headwinds? What are the reasons for the continued rise in interest rates? What are the repercussions of the sharp rise in crude oil prices? Why are the currencies of Japan and…
The ECB's interest rate hike has rekindled doubts about mortgages: variable-rate mortgages still start at a lower cost, but the Euribor could rise in the coming months. Fixed-rate mortgages are more expensive, but offer protection from further rate fluctuations.
On Saturday 12th on FIRSTonline the September economic hands to try to decipher an economic and financial phase full of uncertainties like never before
After the ECB's expected rate hike, Lagarde's comments on future moves have arrived, while oil and gas prices continue to surge. But there's also anticipation for the US, with the PPI, Oracle's quarterly results, and...
Markets are under pressure on the prospect of rate hikes by major central banks. In Asia, the Kospi stands out with a 1,2% gain, but the focus is on the yen, which is at a seven-month high. Europe is expected to open around…
"The Fed will cut rates or we will stop trading with countries with which the United States has a deficit": commenting on the employment data, Trump once again addressed the new Fed chairman, Warsh.
Yesterday, Wall Street closed sharply higher, thanks to the tech and software sectors. US jobs data is expected today. European stocks opened slightly higher. At the Milan Stock Exchange, attention is focused on the banking risk game and Eni.
Bond markets are currently suffering the most, pricing in monetary tightening by central banks to quell inflation. European stock markets opened slightly lower. At the Milan Stock Exchange, eyes are on Saipem, Leonardo, and others.
All eyes on Jackson Hole. Are the Fed chairman and the Treasury secretary playing good cop, bad cop? What kind of Fed is showing up at the annual central bankers' symposium? Here's what's new already...
Nvidia's record earnings are boosting many AI stocks in New York, but the risk of rising interest rates weighs heavily on Europe. Warsh's Jackson Hole speech is eagerly awaited on Friday.
Stock markets are performing well in the U.S. and Europe, where London and Frankfurt are soaring. In Milan, StM is gaining momentum, leading the gains. The recovery in precious metals is impressive. Airbnb soars on the Nasdaq-100 after its quarterly results.
Volatility is the hallmark of the stock markets these days, buffeted by the conflicting winds of quarterly results from US and Asian companies, while the Fed is failing to clarify the interest rate outlook and causing a surge in bond yields.
For investors, tonight's meeting should primarily serve as a preparatory step for the September decision. Much will depend on inflation, which continues to be well above the central bank's 2% target.
After a positive close on Wall Street, the Kospi and Nikkei fell in Asia, but TSMC data was astonishing. European stock markets are expected to open slightly higher. At the Milan Stock Exchange, attention is on banks, Danieli, and De'Longhi.
The July Economics Lancets, a monthly column by Fabrizio Galimberti and Luca Paolazzi, will answer the main questions on current economic and financial affairs tomorrow on FIRSTonline.
Yesterday's decline in the tech sector on Wall Street, with Zuckerberg expressing disappointment over AI progress, didn't affect Asian tech stocks, which instead rebounded. European stocks opened higher. At the Milan Stock Exchange, eyes were on...
Italy raised over €8,8 billion from small investors with the new BTP Italia Sì. On the fifth and final day of placement, orders totaled €744,2 million. Additional maturities and premiums
According to a World Gold Council survey, central banks will increase their gold reserves next year. Silver has added appeal due to its industrial role in many cutting-edge businesses.
Government bonds are falling, benefiting governments as well, saving on refinancing costs: France, Spain, and Germany are expected to place nearly €30 billion in bonds in the near future. The new BTP Italia Sì will likely maintain the minimum rate...
The variable rate is becoming less convenient than the fixed rate, which, however, continues to represent the largest share of Italians' choices: 92,3%. On average, according to Mutuionline calculations, the monthly payment for a variable rate mortgage increases from €534...
The Ministry of Economy and Finance has set the minimum guaranteed rate for the first BTP Italia Sì at 1,60% per annum, plus a component linked to national inflation. From coupons to premiums, here's what you need to know about the new government bond intended for...
Financial analysts argue that the AI stock market crash may be a breather before resuming its rally. From the arrival of mega-IPOs on Wall Street to a season of…
Consumer and producer price data spoke clearly this week: the war in the Middle East is fueling inflation, and central banks will have no choice but to raise interest rates. There are also concerns about rising…
A completely different scenario from the one seen between 2024 and 2025, when the ECB decided on eight reductions in the cost of money. Notary statistics (DSN) showed a 6,6% increase in transactions in 2025...
The Bank of Japan was the first of the world's central banks to take action this week. The final decision was to leave rates unchanged, but with three members of the board opposed. On Wall Street yesterday, Nvidia was...
ECONOMIC HANDS FOR APRIL 2026 – What will change with the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz? Is demand destruction underway? Will inflation continue to rise? Will central banks raise rates? Are there signs of worsening expectations?
After leading gold's sharp rise until January, when it reached an all-time high of $5.600, central banks had begun to reap the benefits. But China's purchases, taking advantage of the decline in...
Following the change in interest rate trajectory already indicated last week by Lagarde, now Nagel, the Bundesbank's "hawk," is issuing an even more precise warning. Certainly, the ECB does not want to repeat the mistake it made in 2021-2022. But it is necessary to be…
Even with Wednesday's rebound, gold has lost a quarter of its value, and the environment remains intact. For the metal to regain its role as a safe haven, now replaced by the dollar, it would require a significant impact on...
The deposit rate remains at 2%. Inflation estimates have been revised upward and growth estimates downward. Lagarde: "It is urgent to strengthen the euro area." The BoE also remains firm and says it is ready to take action to combat rising prices.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the body responsible for monetary policy in the United States, has opted to keep interest rates at 3,50%-3,75%, as expected by analysts.
Government bond yields are rising from the U.S. to Europe, including Germany. Next week's agenda includes monetary policy meetings at the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England, as well as the Reserve Bank of Australia.
ECONOMIC HANDS FOR MARCH 2026 – What will be the effects of the war on economies? And on oil and gas prices? Will an inflationary spiral begin? Will the ECB and the Fed keep rates on hold? Why have Italian government bond spreads widened?
The BTP Valore 2026 closed its seventh issuance with €16,2 billion raised and 522 contracts. Coupon rates, revised upward due to tensions in the Middle East, are set at 2,60% for the first two years,...
The ECB's economic bulletin: Eurozone households pay roughly twice as much for electricity as energy-intensive industries, because all components of the bill are more expensive. In Italy, this phenomenon is even more pronounced than elsewhere.
Trump's words fueled speculation that the dollar was beginning a long-term decline, with implications for U.S. debt. ECB officials are monitoring the single currency.
According to the latest ECB bulletin, inflation in the euro area will stabilize around 2% in the medium term, with growth continuing to be driven by consumption and services. Government bond spreads are at historic lows, but geopolitical risks and financial volatility remain.
The surge in major precious metals dwarfs the gains in stock indices. Central banks fear the existence of a bubble, but many analysts believe otherwise. Copper, widely used in the energy, construction, and manufacturing sectors, rose 40%,…
Wall Street is betting on better corporate profits after the GDP data beat expectations. Meanwhile, the passion for technology stocks is returning. But the real boom is in commodities. European stock markets are closed for the holidays...
After a sparkling close on Wall Street, Asia followed suit with tech-dominated gains. TikTok sold its US business. European stocks opened at par, with attention focused on the EU, which approved a €90 billion loan.
Investors are struggling to shake off doubts about the 2026 interest rate outlook and the true profitability of artificial intelligence, and are opting to sell. European stock markets opened lower. At the Milan Stock Exchange, UniCredit is keeping an eye on the market.
ECONOMIC TIMETABLES FOR DECEMBER 2025 – What explains the continued rise in long-term rates? Are yield curves normalizing? Have key interest rates stopped decreasing? Will the signs of recovery in the European economy be confirmed? After the "statistical gloom"...
The Fed cuts rates as expected, raises its GDP forecast, indicates a further cut in 2026, and resumes QE. But the shadow of a bubble in the tech sector after the Oracle data clouds markets. European stock markets saw…
The Fed is preparing to cut rates by 25 basis points, but uncertainty surrounds the economic outlook for the first quarter of 2026. Piazza Affari is among the worst performing stock markets, suffering the fall in Leonardo and, above all, Ferrari.
Analysts predict it will be one of the most turbulent meetings in recent years due to the divergences that have emerged among FOMC members. This raises concerns about its independence. Markets are showing increasing volatility in options...
Wall Street will be closed today for Thanksgiving, kicking off the holiday shopping season: consumer spending accounts for about three-quarters of US GDP. Airlines are reporting significant travel. The stock markets are experiencing a renewed appetite for technology. In…
Wall Street rises on expectations of a Fed rate cut and Hassett's appointment as Powell's replacement. Nvidia falls. Abercrombie surges. Today is a decisive day for British Finance Minister Rachel Reeves. European stocks are seen opening higher.
Despite the drop from its all-time high, gold is still up 55% year-to-date and remains on track to achieve its best annual performance since 1979. Analysts say fundamentals remain strong.
After Black Friday, a bit of sunshine returns to the markets today, and futures point to a cautious rise in US and European indices. In Asia, attention is focused on the escalation of diplomatic tensions between China and Japan.
The Fed is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday and may even terminate its QT program. The ECB is expected to leave rates on hold. The least likely move will be that of the Bank of Japan, caught between wanting to raise…
The sixth BTP Valore issuance has closed: interest remained high until the final day, with orders exceeding €1,2 billion. No news on yields: rates confirmed at 2,6% for the first three years, 3,1% for the…
Sanae Takaichi, Japan's new prime minister and a fan of Britain's Margaret Thatcher, has appointed Satsuki Katayama as finance minister. Here are the market effects and the new strategies in place, in perfect Trump style.
The Treasury has announced the minimum guaranteed rates for the BTP Valore 2025, to be placed from 20 to 24 October, with increasing coupons and a loyalty bonus of 0,8% for those who hold the bond until maturity.
In the US, the economy is struggling with a weaker labor market and still-high inflation, but the full impact of Trump's tariffs is still unknown. In Europe, the thorn in its side is...
The Fed's forecasts point to two more cuts this year. Concerns are centered around the labor market, as well as inflation, fueling fears of the stagflation that gripped the 70s. Today, it's the Bank of England's turn.
In a highly bank-centric stock market like Milan's, the decline in major banking stocks drags down the FTSE MIB. Wall Street is mixed ahead of the Fed's rate cut. The dollar hits its lowest point.
Markets are expecting a 25 basis point US rate cut, and Trump would like a more aggressive move. How much weight will his loyalist Miran, newly appointed to the Fed, have? European stock markets opened slightly higher. At the Milan Stock Exchange, eyes are on...
Gold hit a new record on Tuesday, but some expect further gains, not just in the short term. However, analysts aren't ruling out a strong correction along the way before the rally resumes. But what are the reasons for all this momentum? And…
ECONOMIC HANDS FOR SEPTEMBER 2025 – How worrying are the US labor market slumps? Will the French crisis affect the entire Eurozone? And how will the ECB react? The Fed will lower its key interest rates – but by how much and for how long?
Most stock markets, from Wall Street to Asia, are hitting new highs, driven by expectations of lower Fed rates and buying in the technology sector. European stocks are expected to open higher. At Piazza Affari, keep an eye on...
The Polish economy is growing thanks to services (+3%), driven by trade (+5,9%), transportation (+4,4%), and professional activities (+6,1%). The National Bank may reduce interest rates to 4,25% by the end of the year.
Gold's renewed rally isn't just driven by the expectation of a rate cut that would reduce the dollar's price. It's also driven by concerns eroding confidence in US assets, pushing investors toward more…
The Fed's interest rate cut pushes the dollar lower, benefiting gold, which rises above $3.500. European stock markets are seen as weak. At the Milan Stock Exchange, eyes are on Mediobanca and Stellantis.
In his latest speech at the central bankers' symposium, the Federal Reserve chairman highlighted the risks of tariffs on US growth and inflation but did not rule out a 0,25% rate cut in September. According to futures...
According to the influential Fed board member, appointed by Donald Trump in 2020, the tariff increases will not be passed on to consumers. And in any case, the tariffs will not weigh on US GDP, employment, or inflation.
The increasingly high hopes that the European Union is also on the verge of reaching a trade deal with the United States are coming full circle to the turbulence surrounding Trump's tariffs. Attention now turns to the quarterly results, which show technology stocks in particular...
Markets were thrilled yesterday when Trump said he wanted to fire Powell. He then denied it: did he want to test? Keep an eye on Trump's new tariff recommendations. European stock markets opened higher. In Milan...
Following gold's record highs, platinum, palladium, and silver are also rising. The latter, at a 14-year high, is largely due to demand significantly exceeding supply. Here's why:
ECONOMIC HANDS FOR JULY 2025 – Is the dollar's weakness cyclical or structural? Will Trump's latest "penultimatums" on tariffs really bite? And what disruptions will tariffs bring to supply chains? The American labor market is…
The dollar is feeling the effects of rising expectations for a US rate cut as early as September. Some analysts say the greenback is on track for its biggest first-half decline since the early 70s. The president of the…
On the trade front, the US has reached an agreement with China on how to speed up shipments of rare earths to the US. Today, eyes on the key US inflation data that could shape the Fed's rate decision.…
Stocks are shining despite the shadows over the truce between Israel and Iran and Powell's refusal to cut Fed rates. Oil is sliding instead. In Germany Dax at historic highs and in Milan banks are doing great (Mps…
Powell, the front of supporters of the Fed's monetary policy is split. Some representatives of the US central bank are starting to see room for easing monetary policy: exactly like Trump
According to the ECB, Russia's war against Ukraine and the conflict in the Middle East remain among the main sources of uncertainty, but an easing of trade and geopolitical tensions could boost confidence
In the afternoon the Fed will give indications on rates but above all on the US economy. European stock markets seen little changed. Tensions are growing in the Middle East with the possibility that Trump will intervene directly. The US embassy in Jerusalem closed for 3 days. European stock markets…
At Piazza Affari, managed savings shine while investors take profits on banks and risk stocks remain at the center of attention. Moderate rise on Wall Street
With two days to go before the ECB board meeting, expectations are growing for a 0,25% cut in ECB rates. The German stock market is the best in Europe while Piazza Affari saves 40 points despite the heavy 3% decline in…
European stocks mixed as they await positive news from the US-China trade dispute and Russia-Ukraine talks. Gold at its highest. Energy and banking stocks hold up at Piazza Affari. Trump's new tariffs sink cars and luxury - Follow the LIVE
The prospect of a US-UK deal on tariffs could pave the way for other agreements, particularly with China over the weekend. European stock markets are seen opening positively. At Piazza Affari, watch out for Banco…
"Not even Trump managed to kill the American economy" comments with irony the creation of new jobs the television channel CNBC but on monetary policy the usual Trump-Powell duel looms. The good performance of the stock markets also counts the clearing…
Eurozone inflation slows, but tariffs and global uncertainty jeopardize economic prospects. In its April bulletin, the ECB warns: “Significant downside risks”
Another heart-stopping day on the markets, which opened sharply lower but then reduced their losses on the hypothesis, denied by the White House, of a possible 90-day freeze on rates. Trump instead threatens to raise tariffs on…
Supporting the euro are prospects of a recovery driven by new spending projects in Germany, while a weak currency would have eased export costs. Instead, recession fears are weighing on the greenback. So the forecast is for…
Gold is the real winner in the trade war unleashed by Trump and has dragged silver, platinum and palladium with it. Supporting the rally, in addition to the refuge from gloomy economic horizons, are also bets on a cut in…
Speaking to the European Parliament's Econ Committee, Lagarde explained that to respond to the US "greater trade integration is needed" And on Unicredit-Commerz: "Don't give up on bank resilience with Basel 3"
After yesterday's collapse, the main European stock markets - Milan and Frankfurt in the lead - are marking a strong rebound today and are still waiting for tomorrow's ECB rate cuts. German Bunds make a big leap
Past high-rate monetary policy continues to weigh on financing, which remains expensive and restrictive, says the new ECB Monthly Bulletin. This is also why the economy is struggling to grow. Frankfurt stresses the need to follow up on the proposals of…
This weekend Trump promised to start imposing tariffs, starting with Mexico and Canada. But then there would be the BRICS, China and Europe. But the decision could backfire on the tycoon. Tensions are high…
The ECB president confirmed that the disinflation process “is underway” and ruled out the possibility of stagflation, “there is a recovery” but warned about US tariffs: “They could weaken the economy”. On the rate cut: “It is premature…
This week, two key events on monetary policy: in the US, the Fed's decisions; in Europe, the ECB's choices. So what will Powell and Lagarde do about rate cuts? Expectations and repercussions with…
In 2023, life insurance redemptions jumped 59%, reaching 85 billion euros, driven by rising rates and inflation. The Ivass study shows that savers, more reactive in the banking channel, preferred more…
