La Red Sea trade route is increasingly at risk, the wars know no respite, the bankers are holding back on the reductions in the cost of money, Germany estimates a recession in 2023, yet the European stock markets do not break down much on this Monday in which they close with a fractional decline , without indications from Wall Street, stopped for the Martin Luther King holiday.
Meanwhile a Davos the international economic forum kicks off, which in the next few days will be able to provide new indications to the markets and this evening we will know if Donald Trump prevailed, it seems, in the Republican primaries in freezing Iowa. For now there are no upheavals following the victory of the progressive candidate a Taiwan, while on the Chinese monetary side the central bank disappointed, leaving rates unchanged today.
Energy costs, which could put the inflation trajectory at risk, are falling. The gas hits its lowest level since August (around 30 euros per MWh).
Stock market closes January 15th: Europe weak
Business Square lost 0,47%, between purchases of managed savings securities and sales of some banks. The situation is not much different a Paris -0,72% Frankfurt -0,49% London -0,39% Amsterdam -0,3% Madrid -0,16%. The catchphrase of a marriage between is back in the European banking sector Commerzbank (+ 1,41%) and Deutsche Bank (-0,88%).
Today the meeting of the financial ministers of the euro zone took place, who had to deal with the fact that, probably, the first economy of the bloc is leaving behind a year in recession: according to the first calculations of the German statistical office in fact, 2023 ended with a decrease of 0,3%.
The recessive framework could induce the ECB to widen the cordons, but the EU commissioner for the economy, Paolo Gentiloni, invites us "not to underestimate" the possibility that tensions in the Red Sea will have consequences on energy prices and therefore on inflation.
Government bond yields rise in the eurozone; Stable BTP-Bund spread
European bankers appear increasingly cautious on rates and euro area government bond yields are rising. The governor of the Bundesbank, Joachim Nagel, reiterates: inflation is still too high and we must avoid the mistake of lowering interest rates too soon. He echoes it Robert Holzman, of the Austrian central bank, according to which the ECB may not touch rates throughout the year, while investors are betting on the first cut as early as April.
In this context it remains stable BTP-Bund spread. The spread between the two ten-year benchmark bonds closes at 158 basis points (-0,53%), but i returns they grew slightly to +3,78% and +2,2%.
Slight decline for oil
Il Petroleum today it retreats on profit taking, after last week's flare-up due to the war in the Middle East and the attacks in the Red Sea. The picture does not seem to be improving much after the Anglo-American raid in the area and today an American commercial ship was hit by a missile off the coast of Yemen. Brent, March 2024, falls by 0,2% to 78,1 dollars per barrel; the WTI also lost 2024% in March 0,3, to 72,56 dollars a barrel.
Il natural gas it goes down and in Amsterdam it is around 30 euros, something that hasn't happened since last August.
On the foreign exchange market the euro-dollar it is colorless at 1,094, while the yen appears increasingly weaker.
Piazza Affari, squeezed between Banca Mediolanum and Saipem
Today she steps onto the podium of the best blue chips of the day Banca Mediolanum +2,34%, in a well-bought asset management sector: Azimuth + 0,77% General Bank + 0,76%.
The session was also positive for a large group of utilities: Snam + 0,91% Italgas + 0,94% Terna + 0,54% Enel + 0,25%. A2a however, it lost 1,88% after the Municipality of Milan opened up the possibility of reducing its shareholding in the company. Well Inwit +1,01% and insurance companies, Generali + 0,51 %, Unipol + 0,45%.
It is at the bottom of the list Ps -2,34%, in a sector weakened by the fact that Mediobanca analysts have worsened the overall assessment for 2024.
In the oil sector it is losing ground Saipem, -2,14%, weighed down by the news that a Brazilian federal body has suspended for two years the possibility for the group to sign new contracts with the public administration in Brazil due to an administrative measure relating to a 2011 order.
Healthcare stocks fall, with Recordati -1,9% Amplifon -1,62% and the automotive sector weakens, Ferrari -1,88, Pirelli -2% stellantis -1,56%.
Outside the main basket, the declines are heavyr Italia Independent -21,43% EPH -25% and DoValue, -21,15%.
