Mario Draghi predicts an “almost certain” recession by the end of the year although “not deep or destabilizing” given the good health of the labor market. Ken Griffith, Citadel's legendary number one, is more pessimistic: the world, he says, has now exhausted the peace dividend and is moving towards a thwarted de-globalization. He echoes it in the room Prime Minister of Singapore: “I don't see around - he says - a single piece of good news”. But the markets, which smell the air of change on the front of the cost of money, they don't listen to the gurus: despite a modest gain, the S&P index rises for the eighth time in a row, the Nasdaq for the ninth. Meanwhile, the race for government bond yields has stopped: the ten-year Treasury Note at 4,50%, from 4,58% yesterday. The ten-year BTP falls to 4,47%, the spread is at 185 basis points. The rally continues, favored by the drop in oil prices and good quarterly reports, but there is the feeling that the Bull is advancing on an increasingly thin sheet of ice.
Flat futures, small ones advance
• I futures of the Eurostoxx and Wall Street are flat this morning, those on the Dax -0.06% and on London -0,1% are slightly down,
• Business Square rose 0,13% to 28.433 basis points thanks to recovery in the afternoon.
• He thought about supporting Toro Ps +3,28% after a difficult start. Even the bank controlled by the Treasury has chosen not to pay the tax on extra profits, preferring to set aside an amount two and a half times higher as a reserve.
• Yesterday the outperformance of the FTSE STAR (+1%) and FTSE Mid Caps (+1%) indices continued compared to the FTSEMIB (+0,1%), an event which confirms the revival of interest in "second tier" securities .
BTP at lows. The Bundsbank's warning
• The ten-year returns of Bund and BTP they fell to their lowest levels since September. German Bund at 2,62% from 2,66%, 4,47-year BTP at XNUMX%
• Yesterday one of the ECB's most "hawks" spoke: the last phase of reducing inflation in the euro area could be the most difficult and businesses and governments must help avoid a further tightening of the European Central Bank's monetary policy. The head of the Bundesbank, Joachim Nagel, said this. “The last mile before reaching the inflation target could be the most difficult,” Nagel said, speaking in London. Despite such warnings, investors are betting on a 90bp rate cut in the Eurozone by the end of 2024 from 4,50%.
Walt Disney saves money, Barbie doesn't save Warner's accounts
There are no shortages or twists to Walt Disney in a session influenced by the quarterly reports, especially in the media entertainment sector. With a net profit of 264 million dollars and revenues of 21,24 billion dollars (+5%), Walt Disney exceeded estimates for the fourth quarter but announced cuts in the streaming division to face the activist shareholder offensive Nelson Peltz.
The most sensational news comes from Warner Bis/Discovery: despite the resounding success of the film Barbie, the stock collapses together with Paramount -7,9% due to the disappointing performance of advertising sales. Robinhood also fell -14,3% after the decline in trading in the third quarter.
Eli Lilly's anti-flab drug arrives
Eli Lilly enters the field to conquer the market for the fight against obesity. The US rival of Danish Novo Nordisk yesterday announced the birth of Zepbound, the weight loss drug derived from products to fight diabetes. The treatment remains very expensive but less than Wegovy produced by the Danish company: 1.060 dollars a month compared to 1.349. It is estimated that the potential of this market is around 100 billion dollars, including the impact on a wide range of activities.
The market is betting. First cut in May
Another major leap forward in Treasury prices. As a result, the yield on the 4,50-year TNote fell to 4,60% from 4,90%. Biennial at 50%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak again tonight. In yesterday's speech he did not provide comments on monetary policy. The markets are discounting an initial cut of a quarter of a percentage point at the FOMC in May, with a probability of almost 41% from XNUMX% a week ago.
China, deflation bites again
This morning at Pacific Asia, the Nikkei is up 1,50%, Kospi in Seoul +0,4%, S&P ASX200 in Sydney +0,3%, the BSE Sensex index in Mumbai is flat. China's stock markets are around parity. Hang Seng of Hong Kong -0,3%, CSI 300 of the Shanghai and Shenzen lists +0,1%.
La China slips into deflation in October. Consumer prices show an annual contraction of 0,2%, against the unchanged figure of September and estimates of -0,1%, while producer prices drop by 2,6%, accelerating to -2,5% of the previous month and better than the -2,6% analyst consensus, bringing deflation to 13 consecutive months. The scenario traced by the data from the National Statistics Office complicates the central government's efforts to bring the economy to a more stable recovery position, considering that even on a cyclical basis, consumer prices suffered a contraction of 0,1% (it was of -0,2% in September).
Bitcoin continues to rise, oil goes down
To signal the Bitcoin rising to $36.500 by more than +3%, reaching levels not seen since May 2022. The return of risk appetite evidently continues to reward the riskiest asset of all.
However, the decline continues Petroleum: Brent below 80 dollars, WTI at 75,5 dollars. Start of session little changed from -2,5% yesterday. In a couple of sessions, oil lost more than 5 dollars a barrel, sliding to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, the American Petroleum Institute (API) estimates that US crude inventories recorded their largest weekly increase since February, topping 11 million barrels.
Bper and Credem: other record accounts for the banks. Positive reviews about Tim
Tim presented quarterly data above expectations thanks to the boost from domestic activities. Italy's revenues rose 2,2% year over year, about 3% above the consensus estimate. Adjusted EBITDA increased 3,6%. The debt was slightly worse than expected, amounting to 21,2 billion euros. At group level, revenues grew by 3,7% to 4,1 billion euros, Ebitda +6,5% to 1,7 billion. In light of the performance of the main business segments, the group confirms the guidance already communicated with the approval of the TIM 2023-2025 Industrial Plan.
The increasingly courted nexi closes the quarter with revenues of 872 million euros, +5% year on year: the increase is in line with expectations. Ebitda grew by 8% to 496 million euros, margin at 56,9%, slightly better than expected.
BPER Banca recorded profits above expectations in the quarter and strengthened its guidance for the year thanks also to the increase in the commercial spread resulting from the favorable interest rate environment. The bank has warned that the announced staff reduction plan will lead to extraordinary costs of 400 million euros. believe closed the first nine months with a consolidated net profit that almost doubled compared to the same period last year.
stellantis, together with General Motors, will invest in the startup Niron Magnetics as part of a plan to develop magnets for electric vehicles without rare earth materials. Chrysler's next new model will be an electric crossover in 2025
Other results from the first nine months
Terna closed with a net profit for the period of 641,7 million euros, up 9,3%, on revenues of 2.247,1 million, up 12,8%.
Saras a decreasing result: 260,7 million euros – 42%.
Tod’s closed the first nine months of the year with double-digit growth in revenues across all brands thanks to the combination of solid local demand and tourist purchases.
