ECONOMIC HANDS SEPTEMBER 2024 – Why won’t there be a recession in America? Why did the correction in stock markets last so little? Where does the stagnation of the German economy come from? Is pessimism about China justified? Will key interest rates fall…
The monthly economic analysis column edited by Fabrizio Galimberti and Luca Paolazzi will analyze the current political-economic situation, with a special focus on the markets, trying to understand what awaits us in the coming autumn
Positive stock markets after the ECB rate cut and banks in focus, towed by Unicredit-Commerzbank. On Wall Street, Nvidia (+1,3%) is doing well, while Moderna (-18%) is collapsing
INTERVIEW WITH LUCA MEZZOMO of the Intesa Sanpaolo research center. On the public debt management front, from now until the end of the year the road will be downhill, with low spreads, a drastic drop in bonds to be issued, ECB rate cuts…
Generalized increases on the stock market both in Europe and America. Effervescent banks on Piazza Affari with an eye on the ECB
After the decline on Wall Street and the bad mood on Asian stock markets, European stock markets should have the strength to bounce back today. This week the ECB will pronounce itself on rates, next week it will be the Fed's turn
Key US labor market data day has arrived, which could determine the size and speed of the Fed's next rate cuts. Markets are waiting, trending lower. In Europe, eyes are on the very weak manufacturing data…
In 1982, Fed President Paul Volcker, struggling with a US economy mired in a deep recession, was convinced to participate due to the excellent fishing practiced in his rivers. Since then, right here the greats of the planet have been doing…
The central bankers' symposium in Jackson Hole begins today, but the key session is considered tomorrow when Powell will speak. However, the markets themselves already have many elements at their disposal (from last night's Fed minutes, to the market...
The disappointing growth in US jobs is weighing on American stock markets which, however, are waiting for a signal from Powell at Jackson Hole for an initial rate reduction. In Milan, Saipem shares lead the rise
After eight consecutive sessions of increases, Wall Street returns to decline, while anticipation grows for the Fed's minutes this evening but above all for the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday to get indications on the Fed's next moves. To follow…
The meeting of central bankers in Jackson Hole is the key event of the week from which the markets hope to gain insight into the monetary policy of the Fed and ECB and its effects on the stock markets
Beyond the stock market fluctuations, the US economy belies the prophets of doom: the data deny that it is on the verge of recession. Waiting for the Fed's moves
Two record-breaking monetary moves will hardly be enough to solve the problems of the world's second largest economic power. At the conclusion of the Communist Party Plenum, the new objectives of Xi, called the "true reformer", emerged
What is really behind the effervescence of American stock markets? Curiously, mid caps are doing better than Big Tech and promise to continue. Europe awaits white smoke over von der Leyen
Market rates are falling following the rate cut by the ECB. On the other hand, government bond yields are also decreasing. The burden on financial investments remains that of the tax burden
The first three banks to show data for the second quarter confirmed the good resilience, already demonstrated by the Fed's stress tests. However, traces of an uncertain climate generated by the combination of high interest rates and slowdown…
Powell won't cut Fed rates until inflation is fully under control. Uncertainty over the future French government sends the Paris stock market into a tailspin. Only the Nasdaq is saved in the wake of Nvidia's new leap
At the ABI annual meeting, Minister Giorgetti defined the GDP +1% target as "well within our reach". Panetta: "Growth +0,3% in the second quarter". Patuelli: "Heavy taxation on savings, it must be reduced"
The second cut in Swiss rates pushes up the European stock markets, among which Piazza Affari is still the pink jersey today. Successful auction of French government bonds despite uncertainties from the election campaign
In its latest Economic Bulletin, the ECB announces that it will keep reference rates at sufficiently restrictive levels for as long as necessary. Underlying inflation continues its downward path, confirming the picture of a gradual decrease in price pressures but…
THE CLOCKS OF THE ECONOMY OF JUNE 2024 – What factors are behind the stability of the Italian economy? Why is growth virtuous? Is export gaining market share? Is the quality of exported goods increasing? Is GDP more dynamic than it seems? Why…
Are there cracks in the American economy? And China? Will others arrive after the ECB's first rate cut? Why did BTP yields rise instead? What effects will the result of the European elections have on the euro? Tomorrow on FIRSTonline…
Stock markets begin uncertainly after the Fed confirmed market expectations yesterday, extinguishing any hope of immediate rate cuts. Wall Street, however, has once again shown its muscles and is breaking new records. Apple still on the rise.…
The political earthquake that has hit France is alarming the European financial markets and the Milan stock exchange is the one that bears the brunt of it due to the size of the public debt. The Ftse Mib loses 34 thousand…
The fixed rate is already discounting the next cuts, while the variable rate costs much more. Meanwhile there is a rush for subrogations: now they represent a third of the mortgages granted
European stock markets fall after the ECB's mini-rate cut. Volatile Wall Street awaits Fed moves after higher-than-expected growth in jobs. In Piazza Affari Leonardo did well, utilities did poorly
The ECB's first small cut is less important than the vision that Lagarde will announce tomorrow on rates, inflation and growth in the Eurozone which the markets are watching very carefully. Piazza Affari ok despite the sales on Telecom and banks
The week of ECB rate cuts begins, even if the reduction will not go beyond 0,25%. Milan remains the best stock exchange in Europe after Amsterdam and disproves the old saying "Sell in May and go away". But the…
Bank of Italy, the final considerations of Governor Panetta: "The Italian economy suffers from serious problems but we are not condemned to stagnation". The unavoidable themes? The "high public debt" which represents a "ballast" and the South. Demography and productivity are the key issues for…
Rates and taxes, monetary policy and budget policy, economic policy and Italian and European financial rules: on these issues the new Governor of the Bank of Italy, Fabio Panetta, is expected to speak this morning in his first Final Considerations before the...
In Piazza Affari (+0,6%) boom for Interpump and strong progress for Tim, Terna and MPS
Wall Street is waiting to know the trend of US inflation. Meanwhile, the EU Commission publishes new economic forecasts, while Eurozone data relating to first quarter GDP, first quarter employment and industrial production in March will be released. Also on the agenda today…
The Fed not only left rates unchanged at 23-year highs, but hinted that there will only be one rate cut this year
For the new bond the minimum threshold is 10.000 euros. Until May 3 the bond is offered at 100 on the Mot. Tax is 26%
THE CLOCKS OF THE ECONOMY OF APRIL 2024 – Manufacturing has emerged from torpor: what are the reasons? The signs of recovery are unanimous throughout the world: should we review the forecasts upwards? Why do the markets give more confidence to Italy? What are the…
Sales on banks are pushing Piazza Affari downwards, which is currently the worst among the European stock exchanges. The spread goes back to 141
Data on US inflation yesterday worried the markets, dispelling expectations of a cut by the Fed. Today European stock markets are expected to show little movement. Bankers could benefit from the situation
European stock markets are seen moving positively today in anticipation of the ECB tomorrow. In Asia, Hong Kong shines thanks to the giant Alibaba. Fitch cuts China outlook
According to the number one of JP Morgan Chaise, the world economy is at a crucial moment and the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East increase uncertainty. On Artificial Intelligence: "It will change society like printing, electricity and the internet"
On the occasion of the celebration in Rome of the 150th anniversary of the birth of Luigi Einaudi, the Governor recalls how Einaudi managed to reduce inflation without stifling growth, but even leading to the Italian miracle. The debt issue in Italy
For now, rates remain unchanged but the reduction is approaching. Will the Fed or the ECB cut first? Let's hope that the cuts do not come too late to avoid recessionary pressures
Stock markets are cautious awaiting Powell's words on rates but the time for cuts has not yet arrived either in America or in Europe even if it is getting closer. In France, luxury stocks are suffering due to the collapse of Kering...
THE CANCELS OF THE ECONOMY OF MARCH 2024 – What are the reasons for the German economy's trouble? Italy records higher growth than the Eurozone, lower inflation, and sharply declining spreads: how can this be explained? The strong stability of the US economy will influence…
Where does the crisis in the German economy come from and how do you explain the fact that Italian GDP is growing more than the European average? Where are the USA and China going and what does the boom in the stock markets, gold and Bitcoin together mean? Tomorrow on FIRSTonline…
As expected, the ECB rate cut is not for today but it is approaching and the euro is strengthening while the spread is heading towards 130. Piazza Affari is less brilliant than Frankfurt and Paris but on the rise: the new course of…
The inflation estimate for 2024 goes from 2,7% to 2,3%. Lagarde on rate cuts: "We will know more in April and much more in June." Stock markets up, government bonds down
Powell will speak to the Senate on Wednesday and Lagarde will speak at the ECB summit on Thursday but the weakness of the markets in Europe and America reveals that no one expects surprises on the rate cut which will not happen before June
Intesa Sanpaolo is thinking of a subrogation discount. Mortgages are also arriving for the real estate Scrooges
Tomorrow on FIRSTonline the Lancette dell'economia, the historic column by Fabrizio Galimberti and Luca Paolazzi, will answer the main questions on the near future of the Italian, European, American and Chinese economy
As expected, the US central bank left interest rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive time - Fed President Jerome Powell curbs optimism on the markets: "a cut in March is not the most likely hypothesis"
Stock markets at two speeds: the American ones are still rising, driven by the GDP, the European ones are weak after Lagarde's intervention according to which the rate cut still has to wait. Hera stands out in Milan
A message that ECB President Christine Lagarde has been repeating for months now like a mantra: "Restrictive rates, as long as necessary" and relaunches a possible cut for summer 2024
After the Central Bank's decision, European stock markets remain weak. But the markets look above all to the words of Christine Lagarde
The market is buzzing with the first signs of a decline in mortgage rates. But experts are looking ahead: Italy is undervalued and must close the gap with its European colleagues. The Winter Olympic Games are approaching. It will all lead to a…
Volatility could come from geopolitical tensions. Perissinotto: "The capitalization of interests will be the driver of performance"
All the main European stock markets are on the rise. In Piazza Affari, STM, Bper and Unicredit shine above all. The banking risk reignites. Amplifon falls again
The words of the ECB president on rates, which will only fall in the summer, are liked by the banks which are going up on the stock market but they are not enough to save the stock markets, including Milan which loses almost 1% and is struggling to defend the 30 thousand mark
Markets down due to delay in rate cut. Today Lagarde speaks in Davos. Eni unties the Kashagan knot
Speaking on the sidelines of the international meeting in Davos, the number one of Intesa Sanpaolo, Carlo Messina, anticipated that 2024 will also be a very good year for his bank, that profits will remain high and that a contribution…
The recession in Germany and the absence of Wall Street for Martin Luther King Day are pushing down all European stock markets and Milan is no exception
THE CLOCKS OF THE ECONOMY OF JANUARY 2024 – What are the geopolitical risks that threaten a year of modest growth? What factors will anticipate or delay the decline in rates? Is the soft landing of the American economy confirmed? What is behind the stability of employment and…
There is also an increasing demand for houses with a higher energy class, from E upwards. For those who need to take out a mortgage, rates are already showing a decline
The new findings on higher-than-expected American inflation disturb the markets which fear the Fed's rate cut will move away and are taking a downward path - Bitcoin rises after the green light from the SEC, boom for Ether
In 2022, losses amounted to 132 billion francs. The cause lies in the weighting of positions in national currency.
Doubts about Apple's future and anxiety over the Fed's minutes on the next rate moves send the stock markets into the red while T-bond yields rise - In Milan the banks are holding up but not the securities...
Growth will remain limited in the short term, then will recover thanks to higher real incomes and improved external demand. The PEPP program will close by the end of 2024
Vivendi rushes to Paris after the announcement of the "stew" project to enhance Canal+, Havas and Lagardère. The bond race continues unabated
Today's Fed meeting is awaited but the markets' prudence indicates that no one expects any more short-term surprises on rates despite Yellen's optimism - Salvatore Rossi will not run for re-election as Tim's Presidency
At COP28, the Texan sheikhs and oilmen avoid the flop at the last minute - transition but not elimination of fossil fuels - The lack of clarity on the real trend of inflation offers the Fed a pretext not to touch rates (for now)
All the market spotlights are on the central banks' next moves - Weak stock markets today: two-speed banks on Piazza Affari
Waiting for the central banks' pronouncement on rates but in Piazza Affari the acquittal of Alessandro Profumo and Viola sends MPS into orbit while the excellent collection rewards Fineco
THE CLOCKS OF THE ECONOMY OF DECEMBER 2023 – What are the markets' reasons and the central banks' reasons for the decline in rates? Is the US economy headed for a soft landing? What weapons does China have to support the economy? Why the…
Saturday 9 December on FIRSTonline the last issue of the year of the Lancette dell'economia, the historic column by Fabrizio Galimberti and Luca Paolazzi who will explain on an economic level from the new year how 2023 went and what we can realistically expect
If even Schnabel, the priestess of German austerity, becomes a dove and says that she can rule out further rate increases, that's music for the markets. 70% of Intesa Sanpaolo employees have chosen the short week
Fed President Powell is trying to curb the euphoria of the financial markets but the general belief is that the rate cut is only a matter of months - Overnight gold surpassed the historical record of 2.211 dollars an ounce
Oil stocks lead the rises in Piazza Affari which was among the best performing in November - All stock markets on the rise
Almost all European and American indices are around parity - Piazza Affari recovers: Inwit flies, Diasorin slips again
60% of Wall Street operators are convinced that the turning point on rates is near and this belief has caused gold to jump to 2.017 dollars an ounce - Oil falling and gas plummeting
Without the American stock exchange, closed for holidays, the European stock markets were revived by the ECB minutes which suggest a drop in rates in the first part of 2024
Two-speed stock markets: sharply rising in Europe but slightly falling in America - Purchases on Saipem, Diasorin, Leonardo and Pirelli at Piazza Affari
The 40-year mortgage duration for young people reappears, banks compete by offering mortgages at lighter rates. But house prices are also recovering. Is this a good time to buy?
All stock markets are rising while bond yields are falling - Milan is among the best stock exchanges in Europe driven by STM, Iveco and Saipem
The bull runs on stock markets but also on bonds and gold. Milan still at the top thanks also to utilities. The approval in Washington of the temporary spending law that allows us to avoid the shutdown arrived overnight. The whole…
European and American stock markets all rising sharply after the falling inflation data - Piazza Affari exceeds 29 thousand: Diasorin and Erg driving
THE CANCELS OF THE ECONOMY OF NOVEMBER 2023 – What are the reasons for the discrepancy between a weak economy and strong employment? “High rates and for longer”: why was the markets' new mantra short-lived? What are the reasons…
The Fed President does not rule out new rate increases until inflation reaches 2% but the markets are confident that he will not do so - Waiting for Fitch's verdict on Italy
Powell does not shake the market by evading the future of Fed rates - Small capitalization stocks are gaining momentum - Tim's accounts in the spotlight in view of the sale of the Internet
The President of the Fed, Powell, talks about economic models but not about rates and the bullish momentum of the markets evaporates - In Piazza Affari Moncler and MPS ok, oil companies do badly
The slowdown in the US economy suggests that the turning point on interest rates is approaching. All the spotlight on Powell's speech tonight
Powell in dove version pleases the markets - The cost of money could fall in mid-2024
Already in September there was a clear recovery in mortgage requests, even before the announcement of the ECB's rate stop. It is still possible to use the Fund for the purchase of your first home by 31 December
ECB leaves rates unchanged but Lagarde makes no commitments on the future - US GDP comes close to a 5% increase - Markets skeptical but Piazza Affari rebounds
“Now is not the time for forward guidance.” ECB President Christine Lagarde said this at a press conference in Athens after the board meeting that she unanimously decided to leave rates unchanged at 4,50%: it is…
Opening in the red for the European stock markets, Saipem down in Milan after the accounts and the capital increase to service the conversion of the bonds. All eyes are on Stellantis after Ford's agreement on the contractual renewal with the unions
The conflict in MO and the risk of new rate rises agitate the markets - Waiting for S&P's rating on Italy
The Fed president made it clear on Thursday in New York that there are no immediate US rate hikes in sight but he also said that inflation is still too high. China keeps lending rates unchanged. This evening…
Piazza Affari among the worst lists of the day despite Tim's partial recovery - Spread above 200
THE CANCELS OF THE ECONOMY OF OCTOBER 2023 – What effects will the Hamas attack on Israel and the Israeli reaction have on the economy? Is this another 'black swan'? “High rates and for a longer time” is the new mantra of the markets: is it justified?…
Markets cautious but very on guard for the developments of the conflict in MO but also for the disappointing data on US inflation - IMF ready to intervene if the BTP-Bund spread widens too much. Oil and gas are rising
