The wave of selling in the stock and bond markets seems to calm down this morning, while investors are awaiting the crucial data on theUS inflation, for insights into the Fed's rate outlook. However, the government bond yields remain at multi-year peaks, while the bags They seem to ignore them, supported by excellent business results, a strong global economy, and a continued interest in artificial intelligence.
The prices of Petroleum and tensions between the United States and Iran remain the main sources of uncertainty, with markets waiting for clearer signs of progress in negotiations after the mixed signals of recent days. Brent oil fell below the dollars 103 to the barrel, while the oil transits from the Middle East are returning to pre-war levels, despite persistent risks to shipping, according to estimates by JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs.
Bond markets are more stable today, but they're closing out a nightmare month. French and German yields are at 17-18 year highs. Italian yields are at a three-year high, with a spread of 100.
I global bonds are little changed today, but they are on their way to ending their worst month in recent years, hit by a toxic combination of deteriorating public finances, excess emissions, and rising inflation, while the war between the United States and Israel against Iran keeps energy costs high. Government bond yields are a benchmark for global markets: for investing in riskier stocks and for mortgages and corporate loans.
In Asia This morning, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields held near their highest since 2007, at 5,23%, and are expected to rise nearly 50 basis points this month, the most in two years. JapanThe 10-year Treasury yield is poised to surge 42 basis points this quarter. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield remained unchanged at 4,889%.
This week 10-year government bond yields in Germany e France they have reached i highs of the last 17 and 18 years. In Italy Yields on 5- and 10-year government bonds offered at auction yesterday saw a maximum of 3 years, with the spread between the yields of Bunds and BTPs returning to 100 basis points yesterday, the highest since May 2025.
Wall Street fell yesterday. Anthropic is warming up for its IPO. The Fed sees no urgency in raising rates.
IERI (Yesterday) Wall Street closed down but limited its losses after the words of a member of the Fed who softened the trajectory of interest rates, thus causing the falling yields of US securities soon. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0,26%, the index S & P 500 by 0,17% and the Nasdaq Composite yields rose 0,08%. Meanwhile, long-term bond yields hit multi-decade highs, extending this week's gains.
The prospectus of theAnthropic IPO showed how the AI lab has grown rapidly over the past year, but has also suffered steeper losses. The company is aiming for a valuation of more than $2 trillion, potentially setting a benchmark for how Wall Street evaluates AI industry leaders. John Ternus, CEO of Apple , is undertaking a major reorganization of the iPhone company with the goal of accelerating product development, expanding its device lineup, and creating a leaner, more engineering-focused organization. OpenAI aims to raise at least $30 billion from investors in a new funding round, after the AI startup postponed its initial public offering plans. Altman says OpenAI investors are being patient about the IPO due to security concerns.
The president of the Fed from New York, John Williams, he said he didn't see “no urgency” for further interventions after the U.S. central bank's benchmark interest rate hike earlier this month. According to federal funds rate futures, market participants were late in the session estimating a 50-50 chance of a 25 basis point interest rate hike at the Fed's next meeting in October, down from nearly 70% at the start of the day. The U.S. Treasury yield 10 years benchmark rose by 1,32 basis points, standing at 5,255 %, after previously touching 5,2932%, the highest level since mid-June 2007. The yield on government bonds thirty years rose by 3 basis points to 5,592 %, after hitting its highest level since June 2002 in morning trading.
Nevertheless, investors remain concerned about the interest rate outlook ahead of the release, today, of the monthly price index of personal consumption expenditure (the Pce) in the United States, with the yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury note hitting its highest level since June 2002. The monthly U.S. jobs report is also due to be released later this week.
In Asia, the Nikkei rebounded by 2,2%, SoftBank by more than 6%.
The MSCI index of Asia Pacific stock exchanges rose 1%, on track for its biggest gain in three weeks, with 10 of the 11 key industrial sectors in positive territory. Nikkei Japan jumped 2,1% and was on track to close the month up 0,8% and the quarter down 4,7%, while the Kospi South Korea, down 0,2% today, is set to post a monthly gain of 0,7% and a quarterly drop of 19%.
In the technology sector, Softbank Group Corp., an investor in OpenAI, rose more than 6% after sources familiar with the matter said the artificial intelligence startup was aiming to raise at least $30 billion in new funding, at a valuation of $1.400 trillion. The yen strengthened 0,1% to 157,12 per dollar.
I Chinese real estate stocks They plunged after Beijing launched a mortgage subsidy program that analysts said failed to meet expectations. In the Chinese stock market, the blue-chip CSI 300 index rose 0,2% in morning trading and is struggling to recover from the yearly low it hit earlier this week. The index is on track for a 13% drop this quarter, its steepest since the peak of Covid-related lockdowns. The Shanghai Composite Index is up 0,3% at midday but is on track for a quarterly decline of 6,2%, its steepest in four years.
In the currency markets, the dollar was on track to close the month with a 2% gain, supported by rising US yields. This led theeuro trading near a 16-month low of $1,1336 and is set to close the month down 2,4% as the currency struggles to cope with the global energy shock and rising political risk in Europe. GBP weakened by 0,04%, settling at $1,3224, and was on track to close the month with a loss of 2,4%.
Lo yen, however, stabilized at 157,115 per dollar and was targeting a monthly gain of 1,6%, with investors wary of letting the currency depreciate due to the threat of joint intervention by Tokyo and Washington. In the commodities sector, their spot fell 0,07% to $4.178,10 an ounce.
European stock markets opened higher. At the Milan Stock Exchange, eyes were on Avio, Banco BPM, Stellantis, and STM.
European stock markets are expected to open higher on the basis of indications from Eurostoxx 50 futures at +0,6%.
Intesa Sanpaolo. The process of obtaining foreign authorizations for Intesa Sanpaolo's €30,6 billion public tender offer for Monte dei Paschi di Siena is proceeding rapidly. The proceedings involve approximately thirty countries in which Montepaschi, Mediobanca, and Generali companies operate. Approximately 46 authorizations have been obtained from various foreign authorities, and to date, the group led by Carlo Messina has received unconditional approval for over 75% of the requests submitted.
AvioConstruction begins on the US plant for the production of propulsion systems.
Banca MediolanumJP Morgan resumes coverage with Overweight, with a target price of 28 euros
Bpm bankS&P upgrades rating to 'BBB+' from 'BBB' with a positive outlook.
BuzziGoldman Sachs lowered its target price to €44 from €47. Its Neutral rating is confirmed.
EniSubsidiary Plenitude will offer a 30% discount on electricity and gas, with the price locked in for two years. The discount, according to a statement, will start October 1st and will be available to customers who sign up for the offer by October 24th.
FinecobankJP Morgan resumes coverage with Overweight, target price set at 29 euros.
StellantisIt will suspend production at its French plants in Mulhouse, Sochaux, and Rennes for several days, according to the French newspaper Les Echos, cited by Reuters. A spokesperson for the automotive group confirmed the news.
TernaTerna Plus has completed the sale of all of Terna Peru, owner of a power line of approximately 132 km, to Engie Transmisión Peru for approximately $15 million, according to a statement.
UnicreditHe remains optimistic about the outcome of talks with the German government regarding Commerzbank, but prefers to refrain from comment while discussions are ongoing, a spokesperson said.
