More turbulence on the financial markets, always due to what is happening to the government bond yieldsThe latest data has shown a US economy that is able to withstand rising energy prices without slowing down: the perfect cocktail to give central banks carte blanche on interest rates, and the result is that bond rates are rising and the stock markets are falling. Today The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond has returned above the 5% threshold., at levels not seen since 2007 and even exceeding 5,1%. The Italian 10-year BTP is also affected, approaching 4,6%, with the spread with the Bund is moving towards 100 basis points, the highest since the end of MarchThe Spanish bond exceeds 4% and the French OAT even reaches 4,7%.
As if that wasn't enough, oil prices are definitely starting to rise again today: Brent crude in London reaches $107 a barrel, a level briefly touched in mid-September but effectively the highest since May. WTI Crude Oil trades at $96 a barrel. Rising tensions in the Middle East clouded the prospects of a diplomatic solution to the conflict: Yahya Rahim Safavi, military advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader, warned that the conflict could spread from the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean if the United States or Israel launched a new attack. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated that Tehran is ready to resume negotiations to end the conflict, but will not give in to threats. European natural gas also rose sharply, which has returned above 75 euros per megawatt-hour. Gold and silver have moved little, but are still trending downwards towards $4.250 and $63 per ounce, respectively.
Given this backdrop, it's no surprise that Western stock markets are all in negative territory. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones is currently down 0,7%, the S&P 500 is down 0,5%, and the Nasdaq is down about 0,8%. In Europe, the markets are closing down as follows: Milan -0,85%, Madrid -0,3%, London -0,24%, Paris -0,5%, and Frankfurt -0,57%. The US dollar continues to strengthen against the euro, with the exchange rate falling below 1,14 today. Bitcoin is down 2,5% at $83.000. On the Nasdaq, this is definitely Meta's week, accelerating its AI efforts with the presentation of its new Muse platform and its revolutionary application for glasses. It's still up 3% today, making it one of the most traded stocks. Micron, AMD, Sandisk, Intel, and Nvidia are in the red, but tech in general is suffering. This is clearly bucking the trend, however. Nebius +6%, after Palantir chose it as its preferred partner for sovereign AI infrastructure. Furthermore, Nebius will increase the prices of some Nvidia GPUs by 17–21% starting October 1st. Airbnb is recovering slightly, +1% after the plunge of the last few trading sessions.
At Piazza Affari, there are only a handful of stocks in positive territory: Eni +1,4%, Poste Italiane +1%, Intesa Sanpaolo +0,25%, Generali +0,2% To name four. All sectors ended poorly, from Defense with Fincantieri -5,5%, Leonardo -2,2%, and Avio -3%, to Technology with Technoprobe -4,8% and Stm -2,7%. And then, of course, the banks: shortly before the board meeting, MPS fell 0,66%, Finecobank -2,45%, Unicredit -1,55%, Banco BPM -0,43%, and Bper -1,26%.
