Le European stocks slow mid-session and proceed in no particular order, after a more brilliant start. Weighing on sentiment are above all the new oil price rise and inflation data, which has started to run again in several Eurozone countries beyond expectationsA picture that brings back to the forefront concerns about price pressures and, consequently, about the path of central bank interest rates.
To further complicate the picture, there is also the stalemate in the conflict in Iran, which maintains high uncertainty on energy markets and inflation prospects. Caution is also reflected in bond, With returns still high despite the partial reduction in tensions.
A Milan the Ftse Mib drops 0,42% and returns below the 52 thousand point mark, followed by Paris (-0,52%), Frankfurt (-0,22%) And Amsterdam (-0,11%). They hold Madrid (+ 0,08%) and London (+0,03%). European stock markets are thus poised to close September in the red, after six consecutive months of gains.
European inflation and US data: the next signals for central banks
The inflation she returned to center stage. In Italy the harmonized rate rose to 4,1% in September, from 3,2% in August, while national inflation reached 4,2%, up from 3,3%Energy products are the main drivers, with annual growth rising from 17,1% to 22,3%, but food and shopping baskets are also accelerating, rising from 0,9% to 1,7%.
The price increase is, however, broader. In France Harmonized inflation rose to 3,4%, from 2,6% in August and above the 3,2% expected, with energy rising 21,2% and signs of acceleration in services. Spain the figure reached 5%, from 4,6%, while core inflation rose to 3,1%. The missing figure is now Germany, with the preliminary figure expected in the afternoon and estimated at 3,2%, from 2,9%.
The key step will therefore be the preliminary reading of the EurozoneIn calendar Friday, October 2nd: the consensus indicates an acceleration to 3,7%, from 3,2% in August, while core inflation is expected at 2,5%, from 2,4%. Numbers that bring attention back to the ECB's next movesThe market assigns a roughly 27% probability of a 25 basis point hike in October and a roughly 90% probability of a move in December. The curve incorporates approximately 29 basis points of tightening by the end of the year and over 60 basis points by March 2027. Rising energy prices, which could keep inflation high in the coming months, remain the main drag on the outlook.
On the American front, investors they are waiting for the PCE data, one of the most closely followed inflation indicators by Federal Reserve, expected to remain stable at 3,7%, and the second reading of the second quarter GDP, for which estimates indicate a revision from 2,1% to 1,5%. Meanwhile, the yield on the XNUMX-year Treasuries is decreasing, while the Wall Street futures they move little, with those on the Nasdaq slightly down.
The data will be important for assessing the Fed's room for maneuver, as the market has already scaled back expectations of a rate hike in October. New York Fed President John Williams, however, indicated that further action by the end of the year might be appropriate.
Piazza Affari: Technoprobe in the spotlight, banks challenged
In Milan, shopping continues to pay off Techno probe (+3,65%), which continues to benefit from the rally of the previous session. The sector is supported by expectations for the company's financial statements. micron Technology, due to be released this evening after Wall Street closes. The results will be watched not only for indications of the company's business, but also to understand whether demand for artificial intelligence continues to support the semiconductor industry and investment in the infrastructure needed for AI. Weak, however, stm (-0,47%).
He takes the podium Campari (+2,42%), while the managed savings sector stands out with Fineco (+ 1,5%) and Banking Mediolanum (+1,4%), both supported by the resumption of coverage by JPMorgan with an overweight rating.
The positive streak also continues Avio (+0,4%), following Equita's favorable assessment and the announcement of the start of work on the first US plant for the production of solid rocket motors.
On the other hand, oil stocks are going against the trend of crude oil: Eni loses 1,4%. Weak also Post (-1,24%) And Tim (-1%). Sales prevail among credit institutions, with Bpm bank (-0,95%), Intesa Sanpaolo (-0,64%), Ps (-0,55%) And Unicredit (-0,51%), while Bper salt of 0,13%.
Outside the main price list, it remains heavy Juventus (-7,25%), following the announcement of the fourth capital increase since 2019, this time for 250 million euros.
The other markets
Il Petroleum returns to being one of the main elements of pressure on the markets. The future on Brent rose 0,7% to $103,33 a barrel, while wtf gained 1,17% to $90,43. This move is part of a still uncertain geopolitical landscape, with the stalemate between the United States and Iran continuing to weigh on energy supply prospects. The European gas TTF (+4,5% to 72,6 euros), while among precious metals the is stable at $4.182 an ounce, after reaching new record levels in recent weeks.
On the currency market, however, the dollar is losing ground after having reached a two-month high the day before.euro/dollar rose to 1,1356 from 1,1333, while the dollar/yen fell to 157,058 and the euro/yen to 178,35.
Bonds, yields still high and spreads below 100
On the bond market, yields are partially recovering after the surge the day before, but the situation remains far from relaxed. spread The spread between 10-year BTPs and Bunds falls to 99 basis points, returning below 100 after having reached its highest level since May 2025 yesterday.
Il Italian XNUMX-year yield The index fell to 4,58%, from 4,62% at the previous close, while the German Bund rose to 3,59%, from 3,63%. This movement signals some respite in the bond market, but levels remain elevated.
The situation is even more delicate in France: I'10-year oat yields 4,80%, from 4,81% the day before, remaining close to the highest levels in the last 18 years.
