ECONOMIC HANDS FOR JULY 2026 – Why are interest rates rising even as inflation falls? Is the US economy slowing? Will oil prices go up or down? Why has the dollar strengthened? Why is the yen weakening? Stock markets…
The July Economics Lancets, a monthly column by Fabrizio Galimberti and Luca Paolazzi, will answer the main questions on current economic and financial affairs tomorrow on FIRSTonline.
The first significant price increase occurred in 2022, when prices jumped 13%. Data shows that ice cream prices have increased more than food price inflation.
Italy's GDP is revised to +0,7% in 2026. Consumption and investment are holding up in the short term, but the outlook will change once the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP)'s momentum fades. Prometeia warns: inflation will exceed 4% by the end of 2026 and there is a risk of a slowdown from 2027.
During his debut speech in Sintra, Warsh said that inflation risks have diminished: "Interest rates must return to being the main instrument of monetary policy, the Fed's balance sheet will have to shrink."
The ECB president's words are being interpreted by markets as a sign of a reduction in expectations for short-term rate cuts. "We must not move too quickly," Lagarde said.
The ECB's Economic Bulletin: "Interest rate decisions will be based on the assessment of the inflation outlook and associated risks, in the light of incoming economic and financial data. The Governing Council does not commit to…
Italy raised over €8,8 billion from small investors with the new BTP Italia Sì. On the fifth and final day of placement, orders totaled €744,2 million. Additional maturities and premiums
The U.S. central bank's board, under Warsh's new leadership, kept rates between 3,50% and 3,75%. At his first press conference, Trump's nominee made it clear that inflation will remain...
As Mf reveals, on Monday afternoon an anonymous Scrooge placed the largest order in history for a special BTP destined for retail.
THE ECONOMIC HANDS OF JUNE 2026. The effects of the Iran-US agreement (assuming it's signed and reopens the Strait of Hormuz). The stalemate in negotiations continues to weigh heavily. If America isn't laughing, Europe...
The Ministry of Economy and Finance has set the minimum guaranteed rate for the first BTP Italia Sì at 1,60% per annum, plus a component linked to national inflation. From coupons to premiums, here's what you need to know about the new government bond intended for...
US consumer price growth is in line with estimates. Europe is declining ahead of the ECB meeting. Banco BPM is rising in Milan, while STM, Poste Italiane, and TIM are doing well.
In his final remarks, the Governor of the Bank of Italy warns: "If the war continues, inflation risks 6% in the Eurozone." On banks: "There's room for new mergers." Among the key issues are young people and Europe.
The Strait of Hormuz is the main factor: a prolonged closure could worsen the economic situation and push oil prices up to $200 a barrel in the extreme scenario.
Inflation is a key issue, and central banks are ready to respond with monetary tightening. Interest rates are also rising negatively on stock markets, as it becomes more expensive for companies to finance themselves. Linkers are in vogue, covering bonds from…
Despite the slowdown and a favorable external environment (primarily the Eurozone), the Polish economy is among the best performing in Europe and maintains a solid growth rate above 3%. Consumption remains the main driver of the economy, even if…
ECB, what the economic bulletin says: the war in the Middle East "is weighing on economic activity" and the data "point to a weakening of growth since the outbreak of the war", with consumer and business confidence about the future having "undermined"
On Saturday 16th May on FIRSTonline the May economic news by Fabrizio Galimberti will be available and will answer the main current issues: from the economic situation to structural changes, from rates to currencies and stock markets.
Above-expected US inflation on the eve of the new Fed presidency and the financial effects of the British political crisis are shaking up markets. Gains in Diasorin, Avio, Tenaris, and MPS are limiting the losses on the Milan Stock Exchange, which, however, are not…
The ECB's 2025 annual report marks a turning point for the Eurozone, with inflation returning to close to 2% and growth better than expected, but the outlook for 2026 remains more cautious. Vice President Luis De Guindos calls for…
The Bank of Italy's first annual report on financial stability portrays a solid system but in a more fragile global context: war in the Middle East, declining growth, rising inflation and volatile markets.
"The ongoing conflicts risk fueling a new surge in prices," said Bankitalia Governor Fabio Panetta, speaking at the "Gold of Naples" meeting in the Campania capital.
Bank of Italy, Economic Bulletin: "High energy prices over a long period would not only impact consumption and inflation but would also undermine the competitiveness of Made in Italy exports in energy-intensive sectors such as chemicals, metallurgy, non-metallic minerals, and food products…
Pirelli's 2025 budget has been approved by a majority vote: nine out of fourteen directors are in favor. Chinese company Sinochem has rejected the approval: three vote against, two abstain. The proposed total dividend is €0,34 per share, equal to approximately...
Piazza Affari remains above 48 points, driven by banks: Banco Bpm is grappling with the renewal of its board of directors, while Crédit Agricole strengthens its weight in the capital • MARKETS Is peace in the Middle East really close? by Gabriella…
The Parliamentary Budget Office reports increased global uncertainty related to the conflict in the Middle East. In Italy, GDP grew between 0,1% and 0,2% in the first quarter of 2026, but downside risks remain for growth and inflation in the two-year period 2026-2027.
The war is making Italian businesses more pessimistic about the future of the economy. A survey conducted by the Bank of Italy in the days surrounding the outbreak of the conflict in the Persian Gulf revealed "a marked deterioration in businesses' assessments of the macroeconomic outlook."
Economic Outlook: However, the picture would be more complicated if the magnitude of the energy shock were to prove greater. "We would be approaching a recessionary scenario, marked above all by a decline in household consumption."
The Bank of Italy's Easter Friday warning about the Italian economy removes any alibi from Prime Minister Meloni and urges her to tell the truth to Italians and prepare a budget plan that doesn't just float but…
In the adverse scenario developed by the Bank of Italy, growth this year would be zero and inflation would soar to 4,5%.
In its latest monthly bulletin, the ECB forecasts that the war will reduce global GDP growth by 0,4%. The Governor of the Bank of Italy raises the alarm about the conflict's repercussions: "It is already causing unprecedented disruptions in global energy supply chains."
After two years of losses, the Bank of Italy has returned to a profit of €1,7 billion. In the background, the war in the Middle East is increasing uncertainty and risks for growth and inflation, in a context "likely destined to continue beyond the current phase…
The final session of March closed positively: Milan soars, but the month remains in the red amid tensions and war, with a decline of approximately 6%. Brent above $119 - Follow the LIVE coverage.
If the emphasis is on the war bringing inflation, the bond market goes up for sale, but it stays put if the economy is expected to worsen. Above all, there are fears that any greater government stimulus to combat the crisis...
Despite forecasts of economic growth for Poland, risks are increasing: worsening inflation and the shock linked to the war in Iran could dampen consumption and further weaken investments.
Moody's has revised Italy's GDP downwards for this year to 0,7%, the OECD to 0,4%.
The initiative is intended to ensure the administration is prepared for all eventualities, including a prolonged conflict. The White House expresses optimism, while oil prices remain high, even at US petrol stations. But emergency measures have already been implemented in Japan,…
Following the change in interest rate trajectory already indicated last week by Lagarde, now Nagel, the Bundesbank's "hawk," is issuing an even more precise warning. Certainly, the ECB does not want to repeat the mistake it made in 2021-2022. But it is necessary to be…
This is the first major survey to show the impact of the war on businesses. The sector most affected is the service sector, while manufacturing has held steady, especially in Germany. However, the outlook remains highly uncertain.
The deposit rate remains at 2%. Inflation estimates have been revised upward and growth estimates downward. Lagarde: "It is urgent to strengthen the euro area." The BoE also remains firm and says it is ready to take action to combat rising prices.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the body responsible for monetary policy in the United States, has opted to keep interest rates at 3,50%-3,75%, as expected by analysts.
Interview with Paul de Grauwe, Director of the Europe Department at the London School of Economics. "If the conflict in the Middle East doesn't end quickly, inflation will rise, production will decline, and central banks will be forced to raise interest rates."
The overheating of energy supplies caused by the protracted conflict in the Middle East is reviving fears of rising inflation and a reversal of monetary policy. In Europe, which had been on the verge of a sharp increase...
The crisis in the Middle East is driving up oil and gas prices, with immediate repercussions on utility bills and fuel. Rising energy costs are pushing inflation higher, and the ECB may decide to maintain or raise interest rates...
Marco Leonardi and Leonzio Rizzo, university professors, have written a book entitled "The Hidden Price" (Egea), which thoroughly analyzes the problems related to our low wages: on the one hand, there are the methods of union bargaining, on the other, a…
Piazza Affari weighs heavily on the US stock market after the inflation data - Follow the LIVE broadcast.
According to polls, the prime minister's victory is highly likely. Markets are eyeing her program, which features a significant increase in public spending, but are wondering: how will she finance it?
The Eurotower leaves interest rates on hold for the fifth consecutive meeting. Lagarde: "We are well positioned; a stronger euro could push inflation lower than expected. We will send EU leaders a list of reforms."
In its February Economic Report, the UPB reports real wages still below 2021 levels, GDP +0,5% in 2025 and +0,7% in 2026-27 supported by domestic demand and the National Recovery and Resilience Plan, but global and climate risks remain high.
ECONOMIC HANDS FOR JANUARY 2026 – Why are interest rates, prices, and the stock market rising in the Land of the Rising Sun? Why did Warren Buffett say he should never bet against the US economy? What will the Fed's next interest rate move be?
According to the latest ECB bulletin, inflation in the euro area will stabilize around 2% in the medium term, with growth continuing to be driven by consumption and services. Government bond spreads are at historic lows, but geopolitical risks and financial volatility remain.
According to the latest Bank of Italy survey, Italian businesses are showing increased confidence: demand is growing, wages are rising moderately, and investments are recovering. Inflation remains under control, while the construction industry remains struggling due to delays in the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP).
Gold, and especially silver, hit new highs. Wall Street and European stock markets are struggling. Saipem is in the spotlight at the Milan Stock Exchange. Deutsche Bank believes there is no further room for growth for defense stocks in 2026.
European stock markets closed mixed, with Milan the worst performer despite gains in oil stocks. Gold and silver hit new all-time highs, and oil continues to rise, buoyed by geopolitical tensions. Follow the LIVE broadcast.
The Vix fear index rises again. Europe is mixed at the start. In Milan, Diasorin and banks perform well, with profits being taken on Fincantieri. Edison is ready to return to the Milan Stock Exchange.
The country of asado is now only the sixth largest beef producer in the world, surpassed by Brazil, which is first with four times the number of tons sold. In the 19th century, an Argentine ate 170 kg of steak a year; today, it's less than 50 kg.
After a sparkling close on Wall Street, Asia followed suit with tech-dominated gains. TikTok sold its US business. European stocks opened at par, with attention focused on the EU, which approved a €90 billion loan.
The ECB's final meeting of 2025 ended with rates unchanged, but it forecast stronger economic growth. Lagarde: "The economy is resilient, but strengthening the euro area is urgent."
Analysts predict it will be one of the most turbulent meetings in recent years due to the divergences that have emerged among FOMC members. This raises concerns about its independence. Markets are showing increasing volatility in options...
Foreign tourists recorded 48,9 million arrivals and 149,2 million presences, but domestic tourism is declining, with Italians giving up holidays for economic reasons.
After his support for cryptocurrencies, Trump is now launching his support for the technology's development, using bombastic words, comparing it to the space race and the Apollo program, but with an eye on his voters. Meanwhile, China...
In its monthly economic bulletin, the ECB highlights the growth disparities among the major eurozone economies. GDP is expected to "expand moderately" in the fourth quarter. Downside risks are mitigated, with inflation nearing 2%.
The ECB hasn't raised any surprises regarding the cost of borrowing. Lagarde believes the impact of tariffs will be visible over time, but the truce in Gaza, the US-China agreement, and the EU-US trade deal have mitigated some downside risks.
The end of the current legislature will be a slow three-year period for our economy, which will experience little growth, partly due to trade tensions. Inflation will remain below 2%.
Inflation remains high in Estonia (5-6%), with a third of this due to taxes. Service exports grew by 8% (ICT +14%, business services +10%), while the recovery in manufacturing boosted imports (+3,2%). However, Russian threats are worrying.
Trump's new wave of tariffs isn't disrupting European markets. Wall Street is more mixed. Banks are driving Piazza Affari, but Cucinelli's stock continues to sell off.
New ECB Economic Bulletin: What will the overall impact of the US-EU trade deal be? "Economic growth in the area should strengthen," supported by the recovery in real wages and resilient employment.
ECONOMIC HANDS FOR SEPTEMBER 2025 – How worrying are the US labor market slumps? Will the French crisis affect the entire Eurozone? And how will the ECB react? The Fed will lower its key interest rates – but by how much and for how long?
Lagarde: "The disinflationary process is over, we're in a good position." "Trade uncertainty has decreased, and risks are more balanced." On France: "We're monitoring market trends; we have tools to address them if transmission isn't efficient."
Japan's Nikkei hits all-time highs. Piazza Affari tops Europe's stock exchange thanks to STM and Stellantis. Wall Street is buoyant. The thaw in US-China tariffs is boosting markets.
The U.S.-China trade truce, extended until November 10, is boosting global markets and sending Tokyo to new records. The spotlight is on U.S. inflation and the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska.
In its latest bulletin, the ECB portrays a slowing Eurozone economy, hampered by tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty, but with signs of resilience thanks to the labor market and public spending. "Risks remain tilted to the downside."
Interview with Gabriel Debach, market analyst at eToro, after the US-EU trade deal: "More than an agreement, it's a tribute. Trump's real triumph lies in the implicit sovereign wealth fund, fueled by foreign capital and targeted at key sectors of the economy…
Following gold's record highs, platinum, palladium, and silver are also rising. The latter, at a 14-year high, is largely due to demand significantly exceeding supply. Here's why:
European stocks are dodging tariffs as they await news on the Stellantis and Prysmian negotiations in Milan, with banks under close scrutiny - Follow the LIVE broadcast.
ECONOMIC HANDS FOR JULY 2025 – Is the dollar's weakness cyclical or structural? Will Trump's latest "penultimatums" on tariffs really bite? And what disruptions will tariffs bring to supply chains? The American labor market is…
Stocks and bonds, dollar and duties, growth and inflation: these are the questions on the table and on Saturday 12 July, Fabrizio Galimberti and Luca Paolazzi's Lancette dell'economia will answer the main questions.
He had hinted at it, and he did: the US president sent a letter to his colleague Lula, urging him to "immediately cease the witch hunt against Bolsonaro" and announcing new tariffs. Washington buys from Brazil mainly meat, coffee, and...
According to the Bank of Italy survey, Italian companies are seeing signs of improvement again: domestic demand is recovering, investments and employment are growing. Inflation expectations are stabilizing at 2%, but concerns remain linked to US tariffs and the…
According to Elderson, a member of the ECB's executive committee, the repercussions of climate change on economies are so significant that they cannot be ignored. An approach that contrasts with that of the Fed, which has downplayed the impact of climate on financial stability
At the Monetary Policy Forum in Sintra, Portugal, the Fed chairman responded indirectly to Donald Trump, who had put him under pressure: "I will continue working, 2025 will be a difficult year". Lagarde: "EU inflation at 2%, target achieved but we remain…
The oceanic country has been a model of development and well-being for decades, but now the data says otherwise: after the pandemic it has recorded the sharpest drop in real disposable income among all OECD countries
According to the ECB, Russia's war against Ukraine and the conflict in the Middle East remain among the main sources of uncertainty, but an easing of trade and geopolitical tensions could boost confidence
Bankitalia and macroeconomic projections for Italy in the three-year period 2025-27: GDP estimates confirmed, inflation at 2% in two years, negative effects of Trump's duties on our growth
The ECB cut rates by 0,25%, bringing the deposit rate to 2%, underlining the "exceptional uncertainty" that characterizes the current context due to the trade war. Lagarde: The president: "Today we arrive at the end of the monetary policy cycle".…
With two days to go before the ECB board meeting, expectations are growing for a 0,25% cut in ECB rates. The German stock market is the best in Europe while Piazza Affari saves 40 points despite the heavy 3% decline in…
Europe remains mixed as investors eye upcoming inflation data and hopes of a judicial halt to US tariffs fade. Italgas and A2A rise in Milan - Follow LIVE
All set for the 20th issue of the Btp Italia May 2025. The Mef has announced the minimum guaranteed rate. Here are the characteristics of the new inflation-indexed bond
Inflation is moving lower much faster than forecast in March, which had not yet incorporated Trump's April 2 tariff measures.
The Ftse Mib surpasses the psychological threshold of 40 thousand points in the wake of Stellantis, Monte dei Paschi and Iveco and the Btp-Bund spread stands at 102 points. The Nasdaq is the index that shines the most
Duties, inflation, growth, rates, currencies, gold, stock exchanges and much more: the "Lancette dell'economia" by Fabrizio Galimberti and Luca Paolazzi will explain on Saturday 10 May on "FIRSTonline" how things are going
Eurozone inflation slows, but tariffs and global uncertainty jeopardize economic prospects. In its April bulletin, the ECB warns: “Significant downside risks”
Despite employment records, wages in Italy remain low and do not grow. Politics limits itself to reporting, but the real causes are structural and complex
ECB President Christine Lagarde has warned that a trade war, caused by US tariffs, could slow eurozone growth and increase uncertainty about inflation
The latest economic bulletin from the Bank of Italy signals moderate growth in Italian GDP, with rising inflation and risks related to US tariffs. Global uncertainty and trade tensions could slow down the economy, despite support from consumption and public investments
Growth or recession, inflation and rates, euro and dollar, stock markets and bonds: on all the highly topical economic and financial issues in a turbulent time, tomorrow the Lancette dell'economia will answer on 'FIRSTonline', the historic monthly column…
Businesses expect the overall economic situation to worsen, as uncertainty and concerns over the effects of U.S. trade policies weigh heavily
Safe haven assets, for Goldman Sachs, US investment bank, the Japanese currency "appears as a more attractive hedge for the bearish view of US growth"
2025 will be a difficult year for the global economy due to US tariffs. Italy is growing slowly, but Germany's revival and the ECB's moves offer some hope
