In the latest episode of the podcast "Al 4° Piano", Kairos strategist Alessandro Fugnoli analyzes the behavior of the markets in times of war and draws conclusions for today
Meta's expenses for AI, the disappointing GDP of the US first quarter and inflation are weighing on Wall Street: in cascade, the American data are reflected in the European stock markets which close lower, except for London driven by the maxi offer for…
The economy remained weak in the first quarter of 2024 but is expected to strengthen in the coming months. Inflation is expected to remain stable before falling to 2% next year, despite the risk of a rise due to the war in…
In the 2023 annual report, the ECB underlined the consolidation of progress against inflation, attributing it to a total increase in interest rates of 200 basis points, with clear effects also on BTP yields
In the latest economic bulletin, Bank of Italy estimates inflation at 1,3% in 2024, loans to businesses intended for investments are decreasing, while in the private sector high profit margins absorb the recovery in wages
Saturday 13 April on FIRSTonline the new edition of Lancette dell'economia, the monthly economic analysis column edited by Fabrizio Galimberti and Luca Paolazzi
If inflation continues to approach the objective, "it will be appropriate to reduce the current level of monetary policy restriction", the Governing Council puts it in black and white. Lagarde: "We don't commit in advance, but we decide meeting after meeting"
Data on US inflation yesterday worried the markets, dispelling expectations of a cut by the Fed. Today European stock markets are expected to show little movement. Bankers could benefit from the situation
Wall Street and the Nasdaq are suffering from the prospect of a postponement of Fed rates due to the trend in American inflation. Europe on the other hand is in a swing, but at the end of the afternoon Piazza Affari starts running with the banks on the shields
European markets ignore Fitch's rejection of China and focus on the USA. Piazza Affari on the rise with banks and cars, gold takes a breather, oil prices rise
European stock markets are seen moving positively today in anticipation of the ECB tomorrow. In Asia, Hong Kong shines thanks to the giant Alibaba. Fitch cuts China outlook
Investors' eyes are already focused on US inflation on Wednesday and the ECB meeting on Thursday. Milan among the best, oil falling, yield on the benchmark 10-year BTP rising
According to the Bank of Italy's new macroeconomic projections, inflation will record a sharp decline in 2024 thanks to the fall in energy and intermediate product prices. Employment is good
The fall in inflation in Europe raises hopes that the ECB will decide to cut rates, even if not before June. In Piazza Affari the banks shine but also Telecom Italia, Stellantis and Ferrari lose ground
Interview with Jakob de Haan, president of Suerf, one of the most important groups of central bankers, economists and financial managers – “It seems that the period of high inflation will soon be behind us” – “At the moment wage increases are the indicator…
On the occasion of the celebration in Rome of the 150th anniversary of the birth of Luigi Einaudi, the Governor recalls how Einaudi managed to reduce inflation without stifling growth, but even leading to the Italian miracle. The debt issue in Italy
In the latest economic bulletin, the ECB's governing council sees a brighter picture and says it is "ready to adapt all instruments to reach the inflation target of 2%. However, the risks for economic growth remain oriented towards the downside"
Italian BTPs enjoy the interest of investors and the Treasury continues to break collection records. About a third of the collection needs for 2024 have already been put into the farm
The stock market rise has been going on for 18 consecutive months and sooner or later the correction will come. In the last episode of the podcast Al 4° piano, Kairos strategist Alessandro Fugnoli explains how to behave
Piazza Affari, where MPS and the entire banking sector stand out, is among the best stock markets of the day in Europe but Wall Street also runs
In February, consumer prices in the United States increased by 0,4% compared to the previous month, above expectations, but stock markets continue to believe that the Fed will cut rates in June. Leonardo deflates in Milan
Anticipation is rising for the publication of US inflation data, scheduled for today. Oracle flies on Wall Street, in Milan eyes on Generali and Leonardo. Bitcoin conquers the London Stock Exchange
Almost all stock markets are in negative territory and in Piazza Affari Tim (-4,6%) is still suffering. On the other hand, Bitcoin is flying, now above the record level of 72 thousand billion dollars due to the green light from the London Stock Exchange
Markets with bated breath for the detection of American inflation on which the Fed's moves on rates will depend. Gold and Bitcoin are flying. Enel and Saipem are running in Piazza Affari
The inflation estimate for 2024 goes from 2,7% to 2,3%. Lagarde on rate cuts: "We will know more in April and much more in June." Stock markets up, government bonds down
Powell will speak to the Senate on Wednesday and Lagarde will speak at the ECB summit on Thursday but the weakness of the markets in Europe and America reveals that no one expects surprises on the rate cut which will not happen before June
Although the supply chain's turnover reached 52,6 billion, there was a contraction of -8,1% compared to 2022. France and Germany remain the top destinations for exports
The month of February ended with a collection of stock market records in America, Asia and Europe. The economic growth record belongs to India which rose by more than 2023% in the last three months of 8
Inflation as expected in America and slowing in France and Germany: the Frankfurt stock exchange and the Nasdaq are running. Saipem flies to Piazza Affari. Btp Valore is still on the rocks
Markets on standby but Europe is almost in positive territory, including Milan
The loss would actually have been 7,8 billion, but 6,6 billion was covered with the risk fund, which was thus eliminated.
Gentiloni: "Shipping costs +400% due to the Red Sea crisis", estimates for Italy in the EU average". Germany's GDP will grow less in 2024 (+0,3%), while Spain will do so (+1,7%). Inflation forecasts are improving
Losses around 1% for the ten-year Treasury but the yield rises to 4,33%, the highest in three months. The stock markets attempted a rebound today after yesterday's retreat but Arm leaves 20% on the ground
European and American stock markets are all in the red. Piazza Affari loses more than one percentage point but defends 31 thousand. American stock markets are doing worse
The stock markets are in negative territory awaiting US inflation, which is essential for understanding the Fed's direction. Wall Street futures are also down
The eyes of the stock markets are focused on US inflation, but in the meantime the push comes from Tokyo (+2,7%) which is galloping in the wake of Softbank's rally (+6%). Bitcoin exceeds 50 thousand dollars, the price of gas continues to decline
European stock markets are all up, while Wall Street is uncertain awaiting the inflation data. In Milan the banks are still positive, Saipem also on the shields
THE CANCELS OF THE ECONOMY OF FEBRUARY 2024 – The Red Sea risks widening conflicts: does it also pose risks for inflation? Why hasn't the rise in rates slowed down economies too much? How will the ECB react to Eurozone weakness and…
Tomorrow on FIRSTonline the Lancette dell'economia, the historic column by Fabrizio Galimberti and Luca Paolazzi, will answer the main questions on the near future of the Italian, European, American and Chinese economy
The monthly economic bulletin issued by the Frankfurt institute chaired by Lagarde. How much wars weigh on growth, the objective of a timely return of inflation to 2% and the alarm on vulnerable companies: "The highest number in Italy and Germany"
For 2023 growth drops to +0,6% but accelerates slightly this year%. "Forecasts worsened due to the deterioration of the international context"
According to a study by Bankitalia and Istat, the wealth of Italian families decreased in 2022, marking -1,7% in nominal terms and a strong -12,5% in real terms - Real estate is growing, financial assets are declining
A message that ECB President Christine Lagarde has been repeating for months now like a mantra: "Restrictive rates, as long as necessary" and relaunches a possible cut for summer 2024
Volatility could come from geopolitical tensions. Perissinotto: "The capitalization of interests will be the driver of performance"
The first economic bulletin of 2024: alarm following the Israel-Hamas war and the Houthi attacks due to delays in deliveries and rising costs, fashion and oil under the spotlight. Inflation: from 1,9 in 2024 to 1,7% in 2026
Not even the words of the ECB president today in Davos have stopped the pessimism of the markets, fueled by the news arriving from the Red Sea. The risk of recession pushes gas higher. Weak stocks and bonds
Speaking to the ABI executive, the governor of the Bank of Italy admitted that "we are in a phase of cyclical slowdown". In 2023 growth at +0,6-0,7%. "Banks in a positive phase" but beware of the risks
The survey: for Italian industrial and service companies with at least 50 employees, assessments of the general economic situation and expectations on operating conditions remain overall unfavorable
The effects of the first electoral challenges of the year stand out: in Taiwan the anti-China party wins. On the internal front, the dossier on the former Ilva is in the foreground. Inflation data for December will be released on Tuesday
THE CLOCKS OF THE ECONOMY OF JANUARY 2024 – What are the geopolitical risks that threaten a year of modest growth? What factors will anticipate or delay the decline in rates? Is the soft landing of the American economy confirmed? What is behind the stability of employment and…
In 2024, will the forces of economic growth or those of recession prevail and will the danger of inflation be definitively averted? Tomorrow on FIRSTonline the answers from the Lancette dell'economia by Fabrizio Galimberti and Luca Paolazzi
The new findings on higher-than-expected American inflation disturb the markets which fear the Fed's rate cut will move away and are taking a downward path - Bitcoin rises after the green light from the SEC, boom for Ether
The decreasing trend in prices should contribute to the increase in real incomes, while exports will align with the improvement in foreign demand. Geopolitical risk from war in Ukraine and the Middle East
Campari's crash on Piazza Affari is the stock market's surprise of the day while stock lists remain on guard awaiting inflation findings
China's anti-dumping investigation into EU liquors is worsening the mood. Waiting for US employment data
The shopping cart drops slightly in December. According to estimates, the national index increases by 0,6% on an annual basis. Energy goods down, food sector accelerates
Bond yields rise in anticipation of Eurozone inflation and US employment data. Meloni confirms his intention to sell a stake in Poste
After the Swiss MSC and the German Hapag-Lloyd, the Danish transport company also suspends passages across the Red Sea indefinitely
2023 has overcome recession fears with moderate growth. In 2024, inflation falls, but central banks navigate their policies uncertainly with the possibility of surprises in financial markets. The point on the economic situation by…
Overall, GDP would increase by 0,7% in 2023, 0,6% in 2024 and 1,1% in 2025 and 2026 - Inflation will reduce significantly starting from 2024, remaining below 2% - Here are the macroeconomic projections…
Intesa Sanpaolo and Centro Einaudi presented their survey on the savings and financial choices of Italians in 2023. With the rush for bonds, the stock market remains a minority choice. However, 48% of wealth remains liquid
Growth will remain limited in the short term, then will recover thanks to higher real incomes and improved external demand. The PEPP program will close by the end of 2024
Minister Lollobrigida announced the extension of the card that allows you to purchase food. New activation from December 15th, here's how it works
THE CLOCKS OF THE ECONOMY OF DECEMBER 2023 – What are the markets' reasons and the central banks' reasons for the decline in rates? Is the US economy headed for a soft landing? What weapons does China have to support the economy? Why the…
Saturday 9 December on FIRSTonline the last issue of the year of the Lancette dell'economia, the historic column by Fabrizio Galimberti and Luca Paolazzi who will explain on an economic level from the new year how 2023 went and what we can realistically expect
If even Schnabel, the priestess of German austerity, becomes a dove and says that she can rule out further rate increases, that's music for the markets. 70% of Intesa Sanpaolo employees have chosen the short week
By December 20, 21 million pensioners will receive higher checks thanks to the adjustment, but also to the payment of all arrears from January to November 2023.
Oil stocks lead the rises in Piazza Affari which was among the best performing in November - All stock markets on the rise
In his first official appearance as Governor at the 60th anniversary of Iccrea, Fabio Panetta underlines that interest rates are already at a level "sufficient to bring inflation back in line with the 2% objective" and "useless damage" must be avoided For…
Almost all European and American indices are around parity - Piazza Affari recovers: Inwit flies, Diasorin slips again
Without the American stock exchange, closed for holidays, the European stock markets were revived by the ECB minutes which suggest a drop in rates in the first part of 2024
Inflation which is finally falling is the best news for America which is preparing to experience the day of great shopping which goes hand in hand with the stock market rally
The first agreements between Biden and Xi encourage the markets but the economic scenarios are not exciting
The European Commission forecasts Italian GDP growth of 0,7% in 2023, 0,9% and 1,2% in 2025. Inflation is forecast at 6,1% in 2023 and 2,3% in 2025
The bull runs on stock markets but also on bonds and gold. Milan still at the top thanks also to utilities. The approval in Washington of the temporary spending law that allows us to avoid the shutdown arrived overnight. The whole…
European and American stock markets all rising sharply after the falling inflation data - Piazza Affari exceeds 29 thousand: Diasorin and Erg driving
The latest survey on US inflation will be released at 14pm Italian time: what will the Fed do on rates? In Italy, banks are booming on the stock market and continue to drive the Ftse Mib
THE CANCELS OF THE ECONOMY OF NOVEMBER 2023 – What are the reasons for the discrepancy between a weak economy and strong employment? “High rates and for longer”: why was the markets' new mantra short-lived? What are the reasons…
Next year the pension revaluation will be 5,6%, while the minimum will be 1,2%: this is the estimate contained in the explanatory report of the Budget law. Here's who and how much will be lost in 2024
Did the markets celebrate the Fed's victory over inflation in early November? But is it really like that? And what will the effects be on rates, on growth, on the stock markets? Fabrizio Galimberti and Luca Paolazzi will explain it tomorrow on FIRSTonline in the famous…
The drop in inflation beyond forecasts in Europe calls monetary policy into question and now the stock markets are starting to think that the ECB could begin to reduce rates - Also watch out for the Fed
Building on the momentum of the last October session, the Ftse Mib is close to 28 thousand while the BTP-Bund spread remains well below 20 points
Inflation drastically reduced in October thanks to the drop in energy prices. Food also decreases but underlying inflation remains at +4,2%
Positive inflation data in Germany and Spain give courage to European stock markets. Oil drops despite the war Israel Hamas. Wall Street is also preparing for a positive start. Stellantis and Tim barely moved
There is no default on the horizon for the Italian economy but the party is over, GDP is slowing down, inflation is not falling enough, confidence is falling and the debt burden is becoming more cumbersome
“Now is not the time for forward guidance.” ECB President Christine Lagarde said this at a press conference in Athens after the board meeting that she unanimously decided to leave rates unchanged at 4,50%: it is…
In the middle of the session, European markets fluctuate around parity - The euro rebounds and bonds weaken slightly - Gold, gas and oil slow down
THE CANCELS OF THE ECONOMY OF OCTOBER 2023 – What effects will the Hamas attack on Israel and the Israeli reaction have on the economy? Is this another 'black swan'? “High rates and for a longer time” is the new mantra of the markets: is it justified?…
In its October Economic Bulletin, our Central Bank reports a general slowdown in the economy, including Italy - Inflation is also falling but not enough
Growth or recession, inflation, rates, currencies, stock markets, but what effect will the new conflict between Israel and Hamas have on economic affairs? The 14th edition of the Lancette dell'Economia will reveal it on Saturday 50 October on FIRSTonline
The trend in American prices dampens hopes for a softer monetary policy and the stock markets deflate - Gas prices have risen by 40% in a week
So far no earthquake on the financial markets. Today all the spotlight is on US inflation while China opens its wallet to provide the big banks with the capital necessary to support the stock prices
The Italian companies interviewed by Bankitalia report a significant deterioration in the economic situation. The IMF reduces Italy's GDP to 0,7% in both 2023 and 2024, more pessimistic than the Mef. The Fund instead provides better news for inflation and…
The publisher GoWare offers for reading an essay on the politician of the moment, the economist Javier Milei who is running for the Argentine presidential elections: here are his thoughts
In the September Forecast report, Prometeia revises growth estimates for the Italian economy downwards. Inflation down, but the slowdown in the core component is limited. Resumed in 2024
From 1 October to 31 December the anti-inflation quarter will be active which will bring with it the tricolor trolley: products at controlled prices in supermarkets and shops. Here's which ones and how it works
The President of the ECB announces that "inflation will be high for a long time" and the European stock markets immediately reverse their march, taking the downward path - Piazza Affari loses more than 4,65% but Banca BPM shines - The yield soars to XNUMX%...
Two and a half million Italians have stopped buying fruit and vegetables. Are export successes just a memory?
Powell warns that the fight against inflation is not over and does not rule out the possibility of a Fed rate hike within the year - The dollar strengthens, the stock markets fall
In his podcast "Al 4° Piano" Kairos strategist Alessandro Fugnoli outlines a market context in which the stock correction will remain superficial and the stock markets will continue to receive positive news. What to do?