In January, the Polish balance of payments has registered a surplus of 1.153 million euros, compared to a deficit of 1.698 billion last December. The current account surplus in January was the result of: a surplus in goods of 378 million euros, a surplus in services of 3.276 million euros, and deficits in both primary income (2.417 million euros) and secondary income (84 million euros).
The surplus in the merchandise account occurred in parallel with a marked drop in turnoverThe value of exports expressed in euros decreased by 1,8% year-on-year, while imports fell by as much as 6,1%. In December, turnover increased by 9,7% and 10,1%, respectively. This was due to one fewer working day than the previous year and the harsh winter last January, which hampered transport and logistics activity.
Poland: Energy and war weigh on consumption and investments
Furthermore, in January, a a decline in the value of exports in investments, intermediate goods and transport equipment, while in agricultural products it was due to the fall in prices. Now the war in the Middle East andrising energy prices will partially alter the Warsaw balance of payments, but the risk should be reduced compared to 2022. Analysts predict that if crude oil and gas prices remain at 100 US dollars per barrel and 50 euros per MWh respectively until the end of this year, and if imports of both raw materials are comparable to 2025, the import expenditure It would increase by PLN 26 billion, or about 0,6% of GDP. By comparison, in 2022, spending on oil and gas imports increased by 1,3% of GDP. Furthermore, the starting point (a projected current account deficit of 0,9% of GDP this year) is low and would inflate the current account deficit to about 1,5% of GDP.
The shock caused by the new war represents the risk that the families can maintain highest standards i savings at the expense of consumption growthThe war in Iran and rising prices also pose a threat to private investment, which has already proven weak in recent years. From a public investment perspective, the defense component could even accelerate, given that the war with Tehran could deal a severe blow to US arms sales in Ukraine.
Poland: Growth slowed by climate and inflation, interest rates remain high
In the first quarter of 2026, the low temperatures and heavy snowfall have slowed Poland's economic performance, as suggested by monthly data for industry and construction. Construction production fell 13,7% year-on-year in February, following a 12,9% decline in January, with double-digit declines in all major segments (construction, civil engineering, and skilled trades). Industrial production rebounded (+1,5% year-on-year), but not enough to offset January's contraction (-1,5% year-on-year).
The growth of wages stabilized around 6% on an annual basis in the first two months of the year, reflecting a modest increase in the minimum wage (3,0% versus 8,5% in 2025) and public sector indexation (3,0%). In February employment It decreased by 0,8%, the same as the previous month. The labor market no longer poses a threat to price stability, as wage growth is now consistent with the central bank's objectives.
Despite the growth forecast of the GDP of 3,7% for this year, downside risks are increasing. Inflation prospects have worsened and analysts now expect average inflation to exceed 3%. Therefore, a reduction in inflation is unlikely. rates by the National Bank, keeping the main monetary policy rate at its current level of 3,75%.
