How did 2021 start for the economy and what are the forecasts for the coming months? The usual monitoring of Congiunturaref, the periodical edited by the Ref Ricerche centre, has just been released, which sees a still slow recovery, due to the still uncertain efficacy of vaccines (and the difficulties in their distribution), betting rather on a economic rebound in advanced countries and in Italy only in the second half of the year. “2021 – reads the introduction to the latest work by the Ref -, which started in a humble tone under the blows of the second pandemic wave, also saw the launch of the first vaccinations in advanced economies. The full efficacy of the vaccines is still uncertain; if it were confirmed, the hypothesis of a progressive shutdown of the pandemic starting from the summer months would open up ”.
In the second semester there would therefore be the much coveted rebound in economic activity, such as to bring the change in GDP on average for the year to 3.9% and 4.4% in 2022 according to Congiunturaref. According to the economists, coordinated by Luca Paolazzi, the speed of the recovery will be guided by the normalization of consumer behavior: families have accumulated savings in the past quarters, also because they are unable to make many types of expenses. “On the other hand, the crisis has had highly asymmetric impacts, which have increased inequality. The fall in labor demand in the third quarter of 2020 was already of a magnitude similar to that observed following the crises of 2008 and 2012".
The fall in hours worked, for example, was concentrated in sectors characterized by a high incidence of workers with medium-low incomes. It is therefore necessary, according to Ref Ricerche, that policies do not withdraw their support from the sections of the population in greatest difficulty. In the euro area, the exit strategy from the ultra-expansionary policies adopted in the crisis will be gradual: budgetary policy will start first and monetary policy only after a long time. “Policy rates will not change in the next two years. Even Italy, which has benefited from the ECB's bond purchases, could tackle the exit from the crisis by adopting a gradual fiscal correction. Once the emergency has been overcome, however, economic policy will have to return to the basic issues underlying the
Italian economic decline".
There is also a reflection of the study on the opportunity offered by the Next Generation EU aid programme, on which Italy has however shown up to now a certain delay in the planning of investments and above all of the necessary structural reforms. "Plan urges Italy on the ground of infrastructure and on that of investments, a slippery slope on which all the Governments of the last twenty years have grappled, with little success”.
