Between misinformation of the government and misinformation from the media on maneuver di balance for next year public opinion risks not understanding anything at all. To begin with, it must be said that all the media have stated that the maneuver involves a extra deficit of almost 16 billion. In this way the common citizen who is generally distracted by other and more urgent needs, does not realize that the deficit in our public accounts for next year is much higher, almost 90 billion (4,3% of GDP) . This is more or less the additional debt that we will have to request from the market in addition to the renewal of expiring debts which is between 300 and 400 billion. These are much more worrying figures that investors will have to evaluate.
Then there is the confirmation that our debt, which is equal to around 140% of GDP, is not destined to fall in the coming years. And indeed its holding more or less at current levels is due on the one hand to a certain optimism about GDP growth forecasts and on the other hand on the possibility of cashing in with privatizations 20 billion is not an easy figure to reach.
A lean maneuver is not enough for growth
As for theimpact of the maneuver on growth it can be said that there will be no improvement. In fact, the support for consumption should come from the confirmation of the cut in social contributions already in place which therefore does not entail any increase in the pay slip but avoids a reduction, and on the other from the merging of the Irpef rates for low incomes which will cost over 4 billions to the State but which will give citizens just under 20 euros a month increase. The risk that the Prodi Government had already run into is that of displeasing the citizens who, instead of appreciating the gift, will feel cheated by the Government which had promised heaven and earth during the electoral campaign and then had to limit itself to giving a few tips . Nor does the situation change with the other small provisions contained in the budget law with the reduction of the TV license fee or baby bonus.
It would have been much better to act as a consequence of what had been said by Giorgetti and by Meloni herself that we are in a lean period, that there is not a penny, and that only some expenses need to be made for security and for the unemployed by entrusting the reforms the possibility of stimulating private investments as well as obviously maintaining a strong commitment to using European funds Pnrr.
The government wakes up about the debt
We'll see what she says now Commission di Brussels and especially the rating agencies which direct investors to buy our securities. The Government probably hopes that in view of the European elections the Commission will be understanding and the ECB will be able to use its own means to maintain the spread at one level acceptable.
Talking about spread Giorgetti, instead of boasting about the fact that the Government is not guided by the markets, needs to take note of the fact that we have the highest differential compared to German Bunds in Europe, even greater than that of Greece, double that of Spain and four times that of France. One point of spread is only valid for next year, considering the approximately 400 billion that we will have to ask for from the market, at least 4 billion, which becomes 12 billion in three years by renewing 1200 billion of debt. Nothing but the ECB's fault for raising rates! It's ours debt that there penalizes compared to competitors.
A compromise maneuver will not help revive Italy
A courageous government should have clearly told Italians that this year all attention would be focused on debt reduction both through containment of the deficit and through a real push for GDP growth done with reforms that do not cost as much as increased competition. The increase in consumption should have been entrusted to the change in the climate of opinion due to the increased confidence in our future, the further increase in jobs, and the inflow of capital from abroad.
Instead, once again we present ourselves to the world with the usual ones compromise Italian style. Certainly compared to the climate that reigns in the country and the proposals that come from the opposition of the Democratic Party and the 5 Stars (who know nothing other than to propose new expenses), Meloni and Giorgetti are trying to erect a dam to defend themselves from the assault of corporations and parties. But it is precisely a "minimum wage" that cannot be enough for a government created with the intention of "relaunching the nation".
In reality, the only way to increase tax revenues and GDP with our taxation that counteracts professional growth and favors the black would be a reduction in taxes especially for the highest incomes in order to encourage the return from the black. Instead, in perfect continuity with the left-wing governments, they continue to beat the most qualified and educated classes to favor the usual poor, a measure that will have no effect on the return from the black economy.