DRAGHI OPENS THE UMBRELLA OF LIQUIDITY TO THE BANKS
BUT FOR EUROPE THERE IS ONLY ONE "LITTLE BAZOOKA"
"The outlook for the eurozone is still uncertain." Mario Draghi does not give much hope, speaking to the European parliamentarians in the Strasbourg hemicycle. The Central Bank's “Financial Stability Review” gives even less: “The contagion of European sovereign debt remains the most serious risk for the stability of the euro area, the European Union and the entire global economy”. Draghi, in short, did not make discounts. The risks for Europe "are still significantly unbalanced downwards under the weight of financial market tensions" negatively" on the performance of the economy of the 17. The recovery in 2012 "will be very gradual" while the inflation rate will remain "above at 2% for several months before starting to decelerate”, despite the weak dynamics of wages which will weigh on consumption.
How can we be surprised, given the premises, by the weak performance of stock lists? Draghi's words conditioned the outcome of a session in which the FtseMib index steadily rose with gains even exceeding 1%. The final photo instead shows the Milanese index down by 0,19%. The performance of the other European Stock Exchanges was identical: London fell by 0,5%, Frankfurt -0,6%, Paris closed in parity. Slow but significant recovery of the ten-year BTP with the yield down to 6,74% (-17 basis points). The spread with the German Bund of the new benchmark, however, is still at 498 points, much higher than Spain.
THE FED ADJUSTS TO BASEL 3: DOWN WALL STREET. Wall Street also turned negative with the Dow Jones closing at -0,84%, while the Nasdaq lost 1,26%. The Standard & Poor's 500, down by 1,2% (-4,2% since the beginning of the year) sees the possibility of closing 2011 on a positive note. Among the notes of the day, the following stand out: 1) At&T's decision to withdraw the offer to Deutsche Telekom for T-Mobil in the face of opposition from the Antitrust. AT&T to pay DT $4 billion; 2) the decline in financial stocks: it now seems certain that the Fed intends to apply the Basel 3 capital parameters to US banks; 3) the landing of Al Waleed's Kingdom on Twitter, with an investment of 300 million dollars for the purchase of 4% of the company.
WEATHERBAG. POSITIVE START, RATING PERMITTING. Speculation should not deceive itself: the ECB will defend the euro which is "an irreversible choice", according to Draghi. Asian markets line up: euro unchanged, stock markets recovering: Nikkei 225 +0,49%; Hong Kong's Hang Seng +0,54%. Futures point to recovering stock markets awaiting price sensitive data: 1) the German confidence indicator, the Ifo index, which will be announced in the morning: a slight drop is expected; 2) new houses in the USA. There are premises for a recovery start, but the sword of Damocles of the possible downgrade of France (and of Germany itself) remains to curb the enthusiasm.
DRAGHI LENDS THE UMBRELLA TO THE BANKS. During the week, the "unlimited" opening up of liquidity by the ECB will begin, which in this way hopes to help the banks find the 500 billion they will need in 2012 to refinance themselves in 2012. The takeoff of the plan, coinciding with the first of the auctions of three-year securities by the bank of Frankfurt, has already prompted various institutions to go shopping on the secondary market for securities to be delivered to the ECB in exchange for liquidity at 1%. Another signal that can comfort the markets in the week of Christmas is Draghi's confidence in the "euro, a now irreversible choice". Finally, the markets absorbed without great tension the relay at the top of North Korea, the most indecipherable atomic power. Barring negative twists (such as a cold blow from the rating agencies) there could be room for a mini year-end rally.
EUROPE, A LITTLE BAZOOKA FOR THE IMF. But the Draghi recipe is starting to work. This is demonstrated by the slow but significant recovery of the ten-year BTP with the yield down to 6,74% (-17 basis points). The spread with the German Bund of the new benchmark is 486 points. However, under German pressure, Europe has chosen a European (or rather German) therapy for the crisis that is very different from the American recipe of 2008/09. No liquidity "bazooka", capable among other things of stimulating and supporting the performance of the stock markets, but the coordinated intervention of the countries of the Eurozone plus four other EU members (Czech Republic, Poland, Denmark and Sweden): a small bazooka 150 billion euros which will be destined for the International Monetary Fund. “It is an insufficient therapy – is the comment of Peter Kurer, former president of Ubs -. The world would need much more: a robust injection of Eurobonds, for example”. For now, there is no talk of it: Germany has limited its intervention to 41,5 billion while poor Italy has pledged 23,5 billion ahead of Spain (14,9 billion) but behind France (31,4 billion) . Greece, Portugal and Ireland are exempt from the payment. Great Britain will contribute in 2012, just to distinguish itself from the continentals. Not more than 10 billion but not as a member of Europe, but as a participant in the G20.
BANKS BREATH. BPM HAS A PARTY
PREMAFIN IS PREPARED TO DEVALUATE FONSAI
In Piazza Affari today was the day of the banks, with a sharp rise during the session and a slowdown towards the end. Intesa rose by 0,3%, Unicredit +2,2%, Mediobanca +1,8%, Banco Popolare +1,2%. Ubi -1% and Mps -2% ended up negative. Pop.Emilia closed down by 3,8%. Extraordinary success of the Banca Popolare di Milano increase. 94,7% of the share capital is subscribed. Furthermore, Investindustrial, as already announced, will take over a share of approximately 3% to rise to 9,9%. Only 2,7% of the capital will remain in the hands of the consortium headed by Mediobanca. Meanwhile, today the cds and cdg of the bank will examine the profile of the new CEO, according to the results of the research conducted by Egon Zehnder: by January there should be a new summit in Piazza Med.
Fondiaria-Sai +5,1% recovery after the recent decreases. In the meantime, work continued on the possible consolidation of the fragile foundations of the Ligresti empire. Premafin is studying the terms of the inevitable devaluation of the stake in Fondiaria Sai, charged with a unit value of 7,45 euros (against a quotation of 0,75 euros), a choice which obliges to review the covenants with the banks. In the meantime, a meeting between the advisor Goldman Sachs and the independent directors of Fonsai is scheduled for today.
FIAT LOWERED THE 2012 TARGETS
FLIKE EN ROUTE TO EDISON
The two Lingotto stocks contrasted: Fiat -2,1%, Fiat Industrial +0,5%. The advances of Automotive News according to which the company is preparing to cut the Fiat Auto sales estimates for 2012, lowering them to 2,2 million vehicles from the previous target of 2,7 million, weighed on the share of the automotive group. Chrysler is expected to confirm its goal of 2,4 million cars in 2012.
Meanwhile, CNH, the American subsidiary of Fiat Industrial, has presented a non-binding expression of interest for 200 million euros for the purchase of 100% of the shares of Norwegian Kverneland ASA, a company that produces agricultural machinery. The offer is subject to acceptance by at least 67% of the share capital. CNH's proposal comes after that of the Japanese Kubota.
Still winds of war in Edison. Tomorrow Edison's board of directors will be faced with the risk, in the event of a new postponement of the decisions between EDF and the Italians, the risk of slipping into junk bonds. But it is unlikely that it will be possible to proceed with the capital increase in the presence of disagreement between the shareholders. Minister Corrado Passera has taken the dossier in hand: again tomorrow he will meet with the Councilor for the budget of Milan, Bruno Tabacci, on whom the majority share of A2A depends. The goal is to finally identify a common line between the Italian partners. EDF, however, is not available to review the terms of the agreement signed at the end of October.
Impregilo is up +1,5% on the hypothesis of a "war" between Gavio and Salini for control of the leading Italian construction group. In the last three sessions, the stock has gained 7%. Argo Finanziaria (Gavio group) has raised the offer to acquire the shares of Igli held by Atlantia and Fondiaria-Sai at 3,6 euros. Igli is the holding company that controls Impregilo with 29,8% and has as shareholders, with equal shares, Argo, Atlantia and Fondiaria. The board of directors of the company seems oriented towards accepting Gavio's offer, the Benettons are not. Also in the field for control of Impregilo is the builder Salini, the second shareholder of the construction group after Igli with a stake close to 8% (but according to some rumors the stake is already close to 10%). In the next few days, perhaps already today, Salini Costruzioni should present the integration plan between its group and Impregilo to the shareholders of Igli. Weak Mediaset -3,1%. The auction of digital frequencies, according to a study by Mediobanca, can bring in the State 1-1,5 billion euros.
