Despite the new drop in oil, the European Stock Exchanges close with clear increases, comforted by the positive performance of Wall Street. Piazza Affari gains 2,3%, London +2,48%, Paris +2,24%, Frankfurt +1,79%, where Hochtief (construction) stood out after the announcement of favorable accounts and the dividend increase.
In Berlin, the Bundestag, the German parliament, voted against the establishment of a single European guarantee on deposits proposed by the European Commission. The spokeswoman of the CDU/CSU group in the Bundestag, Antje Tillman, indicated that the Commission should focus "on the fact that the measures decided to create a banking union in all member states and at European level are implemented effectively and that in the end the regulatory special treatments of government bonds are under scrutiny”.
The Micex rises by 0,37% despite the S&P rating agency having revised its GDP growth estimates for the current year downwards to -1,3%, down 1,6% from +0,3 .2016% estimated in October for "the further drastic drop in crude oil prices over the last few months" which removed all support for the prospects of recovery of the Russian economy in 18 after XNUMX months of recession.
In the morning, however, the Chinese Shanghai Stock Exchange closed in negative territory.
The rise in Europe and the USA was helped by a oil recovery attempt, which went from a 4% decline to a 0,8% gain. In the afternoon, however, the WTI found its way back down, closing down by 2,77% at 31,26 dollars a barrel. After a brief passage in negative territory, Wall Street tries to stabilize in positive territory: at the end of Europe, the Dow Jones rises by 0,37% and the S&P500 returns to parity. On the US macro front, durable goods orders, with a 4,9% growth, are better than expected while initial jobless claims rose by 10 to 272 in the week ending February 20. The figure is slightly higher than the estimates of analysts, who expected 270 units.
In Europe Eurostat revises inflation accounts in January bringing it to +0,3% from the previous +0,4%. But there are good indications for Italy. In 2015, the value of retail sales rose by 0,7% compared to the previous year, according to Istat, underlining that this is the first increase after 4 consecutive years of decreases. Conflicting data on confidence indices in Italy in February: that of businesses rises to 103,1 from 101,4 while that of consumers falls to 114,5 from 118,6.
The Btp-bund spread closed down at 137 basis points. Tomorrow in auction CcTeu and BTp 5 and 10 years for a maximum of 8,25 billion euro. The wait is above all on the new ten-year benchmark which will be offered for an amount between 3,5 and 4 billion euros. Operators are expecting a slightly higher yield beyond the 1,50% threshold (from 1,44% at the end of January auction) and good demand, in line with the interest that the market continues to show for stocks on the long end of the curve.
Oils ended the day mixed. Eni advances +2,63%: the Government of Mozambique has approved the development plan for the Coral discovery, in the country's territorial waters. Eni is operator of Area 4 with an indirect shareholding of 50%. Saipem -1,43%, among the worst of the Ftse-Mib: the fourth quarter closed with a net profit of 60 million euros from a loss of 442 million in the same period of 2014, but below analysts' expectations (76 million ). After sales, Tenris manages to close positively (+0,17%), which closed the fourth quarter of 2015 with revenues down 9% to 1,42 billion dollars, less than forecast by analysts (1,57 billion ).
The best stock of the Ftse Mib is Mediaset +5,28%, followed by Cnh Industrial +4,67%.
FCA leaps 4,17% supported by the renewed hypotheses of a possible merger with PSA. In a report this morning, Intermonte returns to talk about a merger hypothesis between FCA and PSA Peugeot, after yesterday's statements by the number one of the French company: "If there is a strategic opportunity, we are open to discussions with other manufacturers" , said Carlos Tavares on the occasion of the 2015 data which saw the return to profit, specifying that "there are no ongoing contacts in this sense". Intermonte analysts see strong motivations behind a merger between the two groups: FCA would bring the strong presence in North America and Latin America and the focus on light trucks and small cars while PSA has become a strong player in cars in EMEA and China . Also in evidence are Telecom Italia +4,27% and Prysmian +3,67%.
Positively the banks in the wake of a Mediobanca report on Bmps and the upward adjustment of dividends by Lloyds, which announced a special coupon of 0,5 pence per share, and by Axa, which will propose a dividend up by 16% at €1,1 per share.
In a report entitled “Scalare la vetta del Monte” Mediobanca Securities analyzes the potential advantages of a merger with Bmps +0,58% The real problem lies in credit quality: the recognition of badwill and the cleaning up of credit quality will be crucial active. According to Mediobanca, the Tuscan bank would be “an interesting asset for Bnp Paribas, “an interesting detour” for Unicredit (+2,38%), “a premature deal” for Ubi (+2,42%). Entente +1,77%, Bpm +1,24%. Banco Popolare down instead -1,98%, worst stock of the Ftse Mib.
Negative among the worst of the Ftse Mib, albeit with marginal declines, there is also Anima -0,88% and Italcementi -0,29%. Among the small caps, Prelios soars by 29,43% after confirmation of the interest of a consortium to acquire 21%. Among the buyers there is also the former CEO of Enel Fulvio Conti.
