Summer is ending and the markets are preparing for an autumn that doesn't promise to be easy. Even the unexpected decision of a new cut in the cost of money in China, announced this morning by the Central Bank, does not awaken optimism. Indeed, the reduction of the prime rate loan (-5 points to 3,65% for one year, -15 points for five-year loans) appears only as an attempt to mitigate the serious crisis in the real estate sector. The main effect, for now, is the fall of the yuan, at a 23-month low against the dollar.
Beijing to help real estate. Drought alarm
The CSI 300 of the markets Shanghai and Shenzhen earn 0,7%. Hang Seng by Hong Kong +0,2% thanks to the leap forward of some real estate companies.
The torrid heat in some regions also threatens the Chinese economic picture. The southern province of Sichuan has extended electricity rationing by another week and raised its drought alert to maximum.
European and Wall Street futures are in the red. In Asia Pacific Nikkei -0,5% Kospi of Seoul -1%, BSE sensex -0,9%. Futures on the Eurostoxx -0,3% and those on the US markets anticipate an opening in pale red: Nasdaq -0,5%, S&P -0,4%.
New records in sight for European methane
First of all, the opening of the methane futures market in Amsterdam will condition the stock exchanges of the Old Continent, which will discount Gazprom's decision to close the Nord Stream for three days for maintenance, cutting off supplies to central Europe. The price shot up on Friday to a new record of 261 euros per megawatt hour before falling back to 244,5 euros at the end of trading.
Fed and ECB towards a half point increase
In the United States, attention is already focused on the speech that the Fed chairman Jerome Powell held on Friday at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, in the traditional late summer Central Bank appointment. Continued hard line on rates is taken for granted, although the Fed could settle for a half-point hike, despite hawkish James Bullard's calls for continued hard line.
Travel to an increase of half a point also there European Central Bank. This is the opinion of the president of the Bundesbank, Joachim Nagel, who has professed himself in favor of further increases in interest rates by the ECB. “Given high inflation, further interest rate hikes will have to follow,” he explained.
The attitude of the central banks largely explains the cautious approach of operators after the negative closure of the last week, the first in the red after four recoveries. Antonio Cesarano, chief global strategist of Intermonte, attributes the closure of short positions, ie the downward bets that some large funds (such as Bridgewater) had placed on market trends, which have achieved their objective. Once the indices fell, these positions were filled and therefore an upward movement was generated, now exhausted.
ECB minutes, PMI indices arriving
Hot data for the week includes i ECB minutes, arriving on Thursday.
Tomorrow spotlight on PMI indices, which anticipate the economic trend through the judgments of the purchasing managers of the companies, will be at the center of investors' attention.
Oil down, euro towards parity with the dollar
This morning the Treasury Notes at ten years it is just below 3%. WTI oil down 1% to 89,8 dollars a barrel. Gold down slightly to $1.743, -3% last week. Euro and 1,004.
Piazza Affari: Carige merged into Bper, increase in installments for Mps
Monte dei Paschi could divide the 2,5 billion euro capital increase into several phases.
The boards of Bper, Banca Carige e Bank of Monte di Lucca (Bml) approved the draft on Friday merger by incorporation. The exchange ratios were set at 0,360 Bper ordinary shares for each Carige ordinary share and 11.234 Bper ordinary shares for each Carige savings share. Lastly, the exchange of 0,045 Bper ordinary shares for each Bml ordinary share was also fixed.
Enel wrote down by 527 million euros Enel Russia pending the go-ahead from Moscow for the sale of the stake, according to what is learned in the utility's half-yearly report. Enel Russia has filed a claim for damages of almost 23 billion rubles against its wind turbine supplier, the German Siemens Gamesa.
