Italy would be a country today even smaller and much older without over forty years of immigration International. This is one of the most significant conclusions emerging from an analysis of the age structure of the resident population. Migration has not only increased the number of inhabitants: it has profoundly altered the demographic composition, concentrating its contribution primarily in the youngest age groups and, therefore, in the most economically important ones.
The phenomenon is taking on an increasing weight in a A country that has lost approximately 1,4 million residents since 2014 and where the birth rate continues to decline. According to data cited by Neodemos, without the international migration of recent decades, the Italian population would today be approximately 7,4 million smaller.
The decisive contribution to working ages
The most evident effect is concentrated in the working-age population. Immigration has brought mainly young people to Italy, helping to at least partially offset the progressive decline of the Italian post-baby boom generation. Between 2002 and 2024, the working-age population decreased by approximately 752 people. However, this figure conceals two opposing dynamics: the number of Italians in the working age bracket decreased by approximately 3,6 million, while the number of foreigners increased by approximately 2,85 million.
It is also a crucial element for the economyFewer people of working age means a smaller base of workers, taxpayers, and consumers, and simultaneously greater pressure on pension and welfare spending. Immigration has thus acted as a demographic buffer, but has failed to reverse the trend.
Without older and less young immigrants
The change emerges with particular clarity when observing the share of people over 65. Between 2002 and 2024 the percentage of elderly people in the population has risen, but the increase was much smaller than what would have occurred without immigrationWithout immigration, the share of those over 65 would have risen from 19,1% to 26,2%. With immigration, however, it remained at 24,3%.
The difference may seem small, but in a population of almost 59 million inhabitants it equates to millions of people. This means that migration has the ratio between the active population and the elderly population has been significantly modified, slowing down the speed of aging.
But immigrants also get older.
The effect isn't meant to last automatically. The first generation that arrived in Italy in the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s is gradually entering the older age groups. In 2004, foreigners between 60 and 69 years old were less than 35 thousandIn 2024, they reached over 388. Over the same period, foreigners between the ages of 70 and 79 increased from less than 19 to approximately 128, while those over 80 rose from less than 9 to approximately 34.500.
It is a a transition destined to have significant economic consequencesThe immigrant population cannot be considered an indefinite reserve of young labor: as residents stabilize, their average age also increases and the demand for pensions, healthcare, and social services grows.
The real emergency remains the workforce
The Italian problem, therefore, is not only how many inhabitants there will be, but above all how many will be of working age. Projections indicate that between 2026 and 2029 the resident population could decrease by more than 900 thousand peopleOver the same period, the under-20s would lose approximately 620 units, while the over-65s would increase by over 750.
Even more significant is the data relating to the 20-64 age groupThe projected loss is approximately 1,05 million people in just three years. To offset this reduction, according to estimates cited by Neodemos, a positive net labor migration of around 300 people per year would be necessary.
From emergency management to economic policy
The immigration issue thus takes on a dimension that goes beyond the debate on immigration. In an economy grappling with a declining working population, the availability of workers becomes a growth factorImmigration can help support employment, production, and the contribution base, but it is not a sufficient solution. Greater female participation, increased youth employment, investment in productivity, and improved retention of skilled workers are also needed.
On the other hand, Italy continues to lose part of its young and educated population abroadThe risk is therefore that we will simultaneously find ourselves with fewer young Italians, more older ones, and a growing need for workers from abroad. Demography is therefore becoming a fully-fledged economic variable. And the numbers suggest that, for Italy, the issue is no longer a matter of the future: it is already a concrete constraint on growth.
