Il world trade continues to grow, but its geography is changing rapidly. In 2025, the value of goods traded in the world reached a new record, over 26 trillion dollars, equal to 22,4% of global GDP. In the first six months of 2026, however, 90% of global export growth came from Asia, while Europe's contribution was essentially zero.
It is the photograph contained in the new study of the Confindustria Study Centre "Italian exports between fractures and new routesWars, tariffs, and geopolitical tensions do not halt trade, but they do alter its routes and players: the United States remains the main driver of demand and imports, China of production and exports, while the center of gravity of growth is shifting toward Asia, India, ASEAN, Latin America, and, ultimately, sub-Saharan Africa.
Italian exports will increase by 3,3% in 2025, but growth remains concentrated.
In this scenario, theItalian export closed 2025 with a growth of 3,3%, supported mainly by a few markets and sectors. The United States provided the most significant contribution and the pharmaceutica the largest among the sectors, while the EU remains the main outlet, with 51,3% of Italian exports. Growth, however, is not generalized: in the US it is concentrated in some productions and, on the procurement front, the dependence on China for technologically advanced products. Between 2019 and 2025, China's share of Italian imports of these goods increased from 14,2% to 34,8%.
“Globalization is not stopping, but it is changing shape and direction,” he observes. Lucia Aleotti, vice president of Confindustria's Research Center. Growth is concentrated in areas that are increasing production, demand, investment, and technological capacity, while Europe risks progressive marginalization. According to Aleotti, Italy needs more investment, innovation, and technological autonomy, along with a European industrial policy capable of supporting this transformation.
Technology and AI are reshaping global trade chains
The new geography of trade is mainly led by the technologyThe boom in US investments in digital andartificial intelligence It has activated global value chains concentrated in Asia: in 2025, US import growth was entirely linked to ICT goods, which accounted for 60% of the growth in Chinese exports and imports and approximately three-quarters of the increase in trade with other Asian countries over the past two years. In Europe, however, the sector had a marginal impact.
The gap also emerges in research: in 2024 Amazon, A, Meta, ecosystem e Apple generated approximately 15% of the global private R&D spendingThe United States and China have each invested approximately $1.000 trillion in public and private research, accounting for 60% of the global total, compared to the EU's $600 billion. In 2025, China also filed approximately 74.000 patent applications, nearly 27% of the global total, while Asia reached 157.000, or 57%. The ICT services confirm the trend: their trade has doubled since 2019, growing at twice the rate of overall services and reaching 15% of world trade, over 9.000 billion dollars in 2025, equal to 7,8% of global GDP.
US tariffs and new markets: the challenge for Italian exports
I duties US tariffs are increasing pressure on Italian exports: the effective weight of tariffs has increased from 2,3% in 2024 to approximately 11% after the summer 2025 agreement. According to estimates by the Confindustria Research Center, all other things being equal, Italian sales to the US could drop to almost zero in the first month, by approximately 2% after two to three months, and up to 9% after nine months. "The tariffs make it even more urgent to expand the geographical scope of Italian exports," he emphasizes. Barbara Cimino, Vice President of Confindustria for Export and Investment Attraction. To reduce risk concentration, it is necessary to strengthen our presence in markets where demand is growing, especially by supporting smaller companies in opening new routes, without abandoning traditional markets.
- trade agreements They thus become a tool for diversifying supplies, reducing dependencies, strengthening economic security and countering protectionism. Those in the EU with Mercosur e India They open a free trade area involving over 2 billion people and nearly a quarter of world GDP and trade.
Mercosur, India, and the Gulf: New Export Routes
Il Mercosur This is one of the most significant guidelines: once fully implemented, the tariff reduction will be equivalent to 10,6% of the value of Italian exports, compared to 10,1% for Germany and 9,2% for the EU average. In the first two months of application, May and June, Italian exports to the area grew by 12,9% on an annual basis, compared to +5,5% for non-EU countries. Confindustria's mission in Argentina e Brazil According to General Manager Maurizio Tarquini, the agreement's strategic importance was confirmed, including for public procurement and local supply chains.
The India It represents a diversification trend: machinery, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and base metals account for approximately two-thirds of Italian exports to the country, worth nearly €3,5 billion. In the Gulf, Italy exported €21,8 billion to the eight countries in the area in 2025, with a surplus of €11,3 billion. From 2019 to 2025, sales grew by 76%, more than double that of non-EU markets.
For Cimmino, the new economic geography It requires real international presence strategies to open new outlets, diversify dependencies, and make supply chains more secure.
Italian exports, the crux of the 401 strategic companies
Diversification must be accompanied by the reduction of internal vulnerabilitiesAccording to the Confindustria Research Centre, the risk is concentrated in 401 strategic companies, with an average size ten times larger than that of Italian companies, double the productivity, and almost three times the propensity to export and import. They are also linked to the rest of the economy by the use of strategic goods that are difficult to replace: an interruption in supplies can transmit the shock along value chains.
Italy remains competitive on international markets, but must face a structural transformation of the geography of trade. The challenge is to make themore diversified international openness, tecnologica e resilient, through innovation, investment, capital, and strategic technologies. Globalization doesn't stop, but it's changing direction.
