There is widespread concern that the economic crisis is causing a growth in criminal activity in our country. The existence of a link between the economy and crime, starting from the contribution of Gary Becker in 1968, has also been recognized by economists, with the observation that the reduction of job opportunities can make the prosecution of illegal activities relatively more advantageous.
The effective existence or the intensity of the link in question with reference to Italy, are the subject of the latest study conducted by Guido de Blasio and Carlo Menon, economists at the Bank of Italy. The outcome of the research is published in the "Discussion topics" section of the Institution's website in via Nazionale.
The study is conducted at the level of local labor systems in the first two years of the crisis, 2008 and 2009. The trend of the economy at the local level is represented on the basis of information from a data archive on company financial statements (CERVED) . The crime measures used are based on crime reports received by the judicial authorities from the State Police.
The results show that the economic crisis has indeed had a significant impact on some specific types of criminal activity, such as crimes that do not require particular criminal skills, such as thefts. Estimates indicate that a 10% reduction in economic activity at the local level would cause an increase in thefts of approximately 6%.
The impact of the crisis on other categories of crimes for which greater criminal skills appear to be necessary, such as robberies for example, is instead negative.
Furthermore, there would be no link between the trend of economic activity and the diffusion of some crimes that are not strictly economic, such as homicides, violent crimes and crimes of a sexual nature.
The effects of the crisis on thefts appear to be amplified in those local systems where the workforce is younger or where there is a prevalence of small businesses.
The link between crisis and crime is less evident in the four regions most characterized by a more entrenched presence of organized crime (Campania, Calabria, Puglia, Sicily). This result could indicate that, in these areas, organized crime holds the "monopoly" of the illegal activity, so it would be difficult for an individual to improvise a criminal activity following the economic difficulties that have arisen, compared to other parts of the country where the territorial control is less capillary
Attachments: Bank of Italy – working papers
