In its "Notes and Studies", Assonime takes stock of the provisional agreement reached in the EU on the reform of the Pact. Here are the most important changes
Agreement reached overnight between Parliament and European Council on new budget rules. By 20 September 2024, European Union member states will have to present their first national plans describing spending, reforms and investments
National ownership of fiscal policy, case-by-case evaluation, longer horizons for fiscal consolidation and realism about public debt levels well above 60%: these are the reasons that make the new Stability Pact better for…
During the Ecofin meeting, the agreement was reached, promoted mainly by France and Germany and also welcomed by Italy
Decisive Ecofin meeting today to define the new Stability and Growth Pact - Deficit and debt parameters are crucial but France and Germany are already close to an agreement which Italy, despite sharing its substance, gives the impression of…
After the Ecofin, optimism emerges from the leaders - France and Germany call a summit to decide - Italy makes a wall: ok to rules on debt, but no parameters that are too penalizing on the deficit
"If the EU leaves us alone on the arrival of migrants in Lampedusa, then it will certainly not be able to pretend to nitpick Italy on the Pnrr, on the deficit-GDP ratio and on the reform of the Stability Pact": this is what the prime minister claimed Melons…
The Government has revised its growth estimates downwards: 2023 GDP to 0,8%, while for 2024 to 1,2%. The deficit/GDP ratio in 2023 will rise to 5,3% (the Surpebonus weighs heavily), while next year it will fall to 4,3%
GDP growth at 0,8% and deficit over 4%: these are the macro-sizes that will inspire the Nadef to be examined by the Council of Ministers this afternoon. In essence: less growth and more deficit - To obtain EU approval on the extra trade deficit…
The EU Commission presented the proposal to reform the Stability Pact - Dombrovskis: "Balanced proposal" - Gentiloni: "A new chapter is opening" - Compromises to convince Germany
The plan includes a minimum tax of 25% on incomes over 100 million and increases for those earning over 400 thousand dollars - Higher taxes on capital gains and Medicare safeguard
The EU has presented the guidelines on the budgets of the member states, also considering the reform of the Stability Pact which should receive the green light from Ecofin next Tuesday
The new Eurostat accounting criteria that update the weight of tax credits weigh on the deficit. Istat revises the GDP data slightly downwards. Positive signals from the manufacturing PMI
The Parliamentary Budget Office underlines that "the room for maneuver that will be available must be carefully evaluated" to combine growth and debt reduction
Two downward revisions of half a point on the 2022 and 2023 deficits emerge from the Update to the Def - But the estimate for next year's GDP collapses to 0,6%
The room for maneuver for the budget law, to be approved in record time, is very narrow and will not allow any of the most expensive electoral promises to be kept
According to a focus of the Upb, the reduction at Eurozone and EU level will be 1,8% - On the other hand, Italian debt remains 50 points higher than the euro area average
The Parliamentary Budget Office (UPB) has formulated two investment hypotheses associated with the golden rule: in both cases, the benefit in terms of growth would be significant
The Pact is obsolete and has been suspended by the EU to allow governments to deal with the pandemic but some countries would like to restore it in 2023 as if nothing had happened and with the risk of creating serious damage - A…
The new 40 billion difference that the government approved with the Def brings the bill since the beginning of the pandemic to 497 billion: almost two and a half times the money allocated to our country with the Recovery Fund
The constitutional judge emeritus Sabino Cassese bluntly rejects the budget maneuver definitively approved by the Senate: it is a "mixed fried" of tips and donations for all the corporations, in which the future of Italy and the…
The Financial Times dedicated an entire page to Stephanie Kelton, economist and co-chair of Joe Biden's economic task force according to whom "the limit to money is only our imagination". And she explains that a third way, between rigor and…
The Government has approved the new Def - Deficit at 10,4% this year and 5,7% in 2021 - With a second wave of the epidemic (and without a vaccine) the recovery will postpone
Politics has returned to ignoring the debt problem, but the EU Commission and the IMF warn that the situation will worsen further in the coming years - According to the economist Giampaolo Galli, the idea of solving everything with the deficit is illusory- Bankitalia…
There will be no "selective increase" in the consumption tax - The maneuver will instead contain an initial reduction in the tax wedge - Still doubts about the deficit - In the evening the Council of Ministers on the Def
The Government will launch the new Def on Monday afternoon - The hypothesis of a selective increase in some VAT rates is shaking up the eve and finding the right balance for all spending commitments is not easy.
In its September forecasts, the Bolognese association revises 2020 GDP upwards and estimates a 2,1% deficit for next year
In an interview with La Stampa, the Lega economist says he wants to defuse the safeguard clauses by letting the deficit run, but his calculations do not agree with those of the Parliamentary Budget Office
"The 2020 deficit cannot be less than 2%" sentences the deputy prime minister, thus rejecting the Treasury's plan - The Lega's recipe also contains interventions on Imu and Tasi - New amnesties in sight for coverage
To avoid Brussels' veto, the Treasury plans to finance the block on VAT increases and the Flat tax with a massive cut in tax breaks - Il Carroccio, however, continues to ask for a completely different maneuver
In all, the correction is worth 7,6 billion: in addition to the 6,1 billion budget adjustment, surprisingly the Executive also passed a decree that cuts spending on basic income and the 100 share by 1,5 billion but Salvini and Di…
A note from the Ref research center highlights the two unknowns that weigh on the Government's path: sterilize the safeguard clauses to avoid VAT increases and avoid the EU infringement procedure
The possible opening of the infringement procedure against Italy could have very serious repercussions on our country: from the increase in taxes to that of interest expenditure, passing through the corrective maneuver, here's what could happen
In his Final Remarks, the Governor warns that "increasing the public deficit is counterproductive" - On the fiscal side, "modifying a single tax" does not solve the problems - "Italy's weakness is not Europe's fault": on the contrary, "The Union is essential for…
The deficit that should rob us of sleep is not only that of the public accounts but the metacognitive one, which makes incompetence and ignorance triumph - even in the government - and which, as Tom Nichols explains in his recent book, constitutes…
Lega and Cinque Stelle climb the walls to hide their reversal on pensions and basic income but reveal the carelessness with which they concocted the budget maneuver that Europe has censored
The government's step backwards on the deficit causes the spread to drop to its lowest since September and brings Piazza Affari once again to positive - Other stock markets after Draghi are weak, Wall Street uncertain - Banks and utilities are doing well in Milan,…
The reverse announced by the government brings the 2019 GDP deficit from 2,4 to 2,04% - The cut is worth a total of 6,48 billion: of these, 4,2 will come from spending reductions for the two flagship measures, which are destined to change. -…
The government changes the budget maneuver, but for Moscovici: "We're not there yet" - Italy is proposing cuts of 6-7 billion to reduce the deficit and reach an armistice with the European Commission, which recognizes "good progress" in the dialogue with Italy…
Summit at Palazzo Chigi, but in the face of Europe's severity both the League and the Five Stars now seem willing to lower the deficit by postponing the basic income and the 100 quota for a few months, but the amendments to the maneuver are…
Atradius expects growth to slowly rise (+1,1% this year and +2,3% in 2019), in a scenario that has seen a strong depreciation of the real (-25%), inflation at +4,5% and unemployment at 12%. Faced with opportunities for Italian exports of…
Tria defends the manoeuvre: "We confirm the pillars of the provision: they serve to get out of the trap of low growth" - No change on income and citizen's pension and deficit at 2,4%. - No assets, but "no suicide maneuvers" - Bank of Italy: "Increase…
The European Commission corrects Italy's accounts by estimating that in 2019 the deficit will rise to 2,9% of GDP (and not just 2,4%), that public debt will remain at 131% and that Italian economic growth will lower…
In Italy's response letter to the EU, Di Maio and Salvini did not allow Tria to lower the deficit from 2,4% to 2,1% of GDP and demanded to see the final text of the letter before sending it to Brussels:…
The Economy Minister spoke at the IMF meeting in Bali, reiterating that "there is no justification for the current level of the spread", which today rose to over 308 basis points - On the risk of financing at the end of Qe: " Auctions are held…
According to the economic analysis center REF Ricerche, the Government's estimates contained in the Def are "exposed to wide margins of uncertainty" and it is possible that "the economic policy framework indicated by the government will be revised during construction"
The Economy Minister updates the Def data and sends it to the European Commission hoping for an open discussion - The Government is betting on GDP growth of 2019% in 1,5 - Public deficit at 2,4% and then declining - I …
European price lists barely moved while Milan goes up and down in line with the ministers' declarations on the deficit/GDP. The partial reverse on 2,4% leaves a lot of room for uncertainty and the tension on the Btp-Bund differential remains - The first to suffer…
Partial reverse on the government deficit in the face of the critical reaction of the markets, the EU and the Quirinale: the 2,4% ceiling on GDP will drop to 2,2% in 2020 and 2% in 2021 - But the spread is still…
The President of FIRSTonline in an interview with Radio Radicale: "The Government's decision to increase the deficit to 2,4% violates the Constitution and will lead to a recession: interest rates will rise and the banks will cut credit to businesses, which they will struggle…
The yellow-green maneuver risks being rejected by Brussels even before arriving in Parliament: it would be the first time in the history of the Eurozone - Barring a reverse on the 2019 deficit, the opening of an EU infringement procedure against…
The first reactions of the financial community to the Government's decision to raise the deficit deficit to 2,4% also come from the Banca IFIS meeting in Venice on NPLs: "It's not a drama in itself even if the debt will rise.…
After the agreement on the 2,4% deficit, the reaction of the markets is heavy. Milan plummets below 4% and closes at -3,7%, leaving 20 billion in capitalization on the field in just one day. A debacle for the banks hit by the cyclone…
The government's risky maneuver and even more so the anti-Europe statements of Salvini and Di Maio cause a rain of sales on the Stock Exchange - Bank shares plummet and the spread is close to 280
Markets in fibrillation due to the government's clash over the 2019 GDP deficit to be indicated in the Economic and Financial Document - Di Maio: "It's pointless to get by: either things get done or it's not worth it. But we don't ask for resignations…
The pressures of the Five Stars on the basic income and of the League on pensions and the tax authorities cause the deficit/GDP ratio to rise in the Def but the real battle will be in Parliament on the maneuver - Renzi unmasks Salvini on the flat tax:…
The Governor of the Bank of Italy shares the opportunity to focus on investments for the development of the economy but warns the Government against excessive use of the public deficit to finance the requests of the Five Stars and the League on the manoeuvre…
According to the Economy Minister, any increase in current expenditure in nominal terms must be stopped at current levels in order to have more resources to allocate to public investments, flat tax and basic income. The new flexibility to be negotiated with Europe, at…
The 2017 accounts have been promoted, but the vice president of the EU Commission Valdis Dombrovskis underlines that "the recommendation for this year provides for a structural correction of 0,3% of GDP, while for 2019 the recommendation is for a structural correction of 0,6% %"
The European Commission does not share the optimistic estimates of the Italian government, according to which the deficit-to-GDP ratio will drop to 1% in 2018: Brussels instead expects it to remain at 1,7%.
According to the US Congressional Budget Office, in 2020 the deficit will break through a trillion dollars, while the debt-to-GDP ratio will reach 96,2% in 2028 - Both levels had never been seen in times of peace -…
The statistical institute has released updated data on the public accounts for the fourth quarter of 2017. The deficit/GDP rose from 1,9 to 2,3%. The debt/GDP ratio has also been revised upwards. The new numbers record Eurostat accounts on the incidence of the bailouts of…
In the third quarter of 2017, the deficit/GDP ratio was 2,3%, the lowest level since 2007. Tax burden down, but social inequalities are not diminishing
Moscovici and Dombrovskis write to Padoan for clarifications - Budget project at risk on both deficit and debt, but Brussels chooses to postpone the final report card also in order not to condition the upcoming electoral campaign.
Athens can breathe a sigh of relief: the finance ministers accept the Commission's recommendation and put an end to the procedure opened in 2009, when the deficit exceeded 15% of the gross domestic product - Now the budget is in…
The airline is increasingly on the verge of collapse: after losing 491 million euros in 2016, in the first two months of the year it went into the red for 203 million, in addition to debt exceeding one billion.
The economy ministers of Italy, Spain, France and Portugal formally ask Brussels to take into account the "economic conditions deriving from a prolonged period of low inflation, low growth, high unemployment". The four countries concerned are, not surprisingly, those…
To save the single currency and the European Union, it is time to think about a major public investment program financed in deficit through new fiscal stimuli covered by the creation of money that will be able to restart demand without…
This is the best result since 2010 - Consumption growth slows down, while gross fixed investments accelerate - Tax burden down by 0,4%
Tomorrow Brussels should give Italy until the end of April to implement the 4 billion euro maneuver (0,2% of GDP) already requested in recent months - Otherwise, the infringement procedure will start in May.
The minister explains that "even any improvements in the estimates, which can however be foreseen, have no impact on the structural adjustment"
This is confirmed by the new forecasts published today by the European Commission: Italian GDP will grow by 0,9% this year and by 1,1% in 2018 - Debt estimates worsen - The EU welcomes the commitment of the government of correct the trajectory of the accounts…
A report by Intesa Sanpaolo believes that the growth rate will be substantially maintained also in 2017 (+2,1%), while the good results in the fight against the deficit (expected below the 2% threshold) and public debt ( valued…
For 2016, Confindustria expects a 0,9% increase in GDP, up on the +0,7% previously estimated. In 2017, however, growth in Italy rose to +0,8% from the previous +0,5% - Down in unemployment which will settle at 11,4% in…
"The numbers are not those" of the agreements made between the Commission and Italy at the time, but "the key point is to see the numbers and what is behind them", say sources of the Brussels Commission - "We are waiting to see the documents" .
The Premier in the Chamber in view of the next European summit: "It is one thing to achieve significant growth percentages with a 2,4% deficit, another thing with 5,1%: any reference to Spain is purely intentional" - Open controversy on…
The Council of Ministers approved the Update Note of the Def which forecasts for 2017 GDP growth of 1% against 0,7-0,8% this year and growth of the deficit to 2%, with more flexibility (+0,4%) for…
The premier spoke at the Ambrosetti Forum and linked the development possibilities also to the referendum: "If the No wins, everything remains as before but a less agile country grows less". Minister Padoan announces targeted measures for growth…
After years of austerity and rigidity, EU policy has officially embarked on the path of flexibility, giving the two countries more time to meet deficit targets - Spain will have two years, Portugal will have to return…
The Council's decision can now trigger the sanctions but the ball returns to the field of the Commission, which has 20 days to always propose the sanctions to be adopted to Ecofin - The fine, if decided, would be equal to 0,2% of the…
The two countries have not corrected the public deficit as recommended by the parameters of the Stability and Growth Pact - Now the decision on possible sanctions is up to Ecofin.
INTESA SANPAOLO REPORT - Internal and regional tensions continue to weigh on the Lebanese economy. In 2015 the deficit increased to 7,6% of GDP, while the public debt amounted to 103 billion. Despite this, the country continues to accumulate…
Brussels will grant our country "unprecedented" flexibility, equal to 14 billion euros, but in exchange it wants precise commitments on the 2017 GDP deficit and on the VAT increase as a safeguard clause.
The president of the German central bank, on a visit to Rome, reproaches our country for the excessive public debt and once again asks for a ceiling on the amount of government bonds in the portfolios of the banks.
Downward revision of GDP growth estimates, Deficit-GDP ratio to 2,4%, sterilization of safeguard clauses, reduction of public debt - these are the central arguments of the Def that the Council of Ministers will approve today.
Istat certifies it. The tax burden, on the other hand, was 43,5%, a very slight reduction compared to 43,6% in 2014 - In the fourth quarter, the primary balance was positive for 8.112 million euro.
In an economic phase in which demand is depressed and inflation is no longer frightening, we are once again discussing Milton Friedman's so-called Helicopter Money in which the central bank gives banknotes to the population but the idea that…
A higher public deficit boosts economic activity in the immediate term, but at the cost of a future recession and an increase in the debt burden, which is already very high in Italy. Easy finance increases debt/GDP in the long run and…
Now the EU Executive forecasts that the Italian GDP will grow by 1,4% in 2016 and 1,3% in 2017 - Deficit at 2,5% and 1,5% of GDP respectively - At the same time, the EU now expects +1,1% in employment this year and +1%…
The current account adjustment is attributable to a reduction in imports rather than an increase in exports, while external debt rose to 108,5%. For 2016 an acceleration of imports is expected while the contribution of net exports will be modest.
The government plans to immediately resort to an increase in flexibility to finance security expenditure without waiting for the European Commission, which will publish its assessment of the Italian budget in the spring.
Brussels revises upwards estimates of Italian GDP, but also of the trend of the deficit and debt - Unemployment is slowly falling, while employment is increasing above all in terms of hours worked- Renzi: "EU and Istat data say that the Italy…
Upward revision for our country both on 2015 (+0,8%) and on next year (+1,3%): however, the numbers are still lower than those forecast by the government - The Fund also improves forecasts on employment and public accounts…
To begin the repayments of pension revaluations, next Friday or Tuesday the Council of Ministers will approve a decree law worth 3-3,5 billion on 2015, but the total cost of the repayments should be between 4 and 4,8 billion…
The 2014 Deficit/GDP ratio, which was 2,3% in the last few months of the year, remains within the limits set by Europe - Istat also communicates an increase in the tax burden of 0,1% in comparison between the 2013 data and…
For Secretary Gurria "this year it can reach up to +0,6%: Italy is back" - "With the reforms, GDP can grow by 6,3% in 10 years" - The deficit is improving - Slower the recovery of employment - "Focus on…
European estimates for 2015 indicate a return to growth for all EU countries "for the first time since 2007". But the Italian GDP will grow by only 0,6%. However, there are encouraging signs from the deficit/GDP ratio, which will stabilize under…
The recent elections in Brazil prevented the approval of the structural reforms that the country would need to become competitive on the markets again. Meanwhile GDP and consumption slow down and inflation is still high. Growth is expected only from 2016
Data on German GDP exceed government forecasts which assumed a 1,2% increase - In France, the state budget is reduced to 85,6 billion euros and the deficit-GDP ratio is estimated at 4,4%
The proposals presented today, which concern new interpretative rules on the Stability and Growth Pact and the legislative texts of the new 315 billion investment fund, represent the legal basis on which to start Juncker's plan: more flexibility…
