Despite tariffs, geopolitical tensions and a still uncertain economic scenario, the IV Italian Capitalism don't slow down and focus on growthCompanies expect a positive 2026, with revenues driven primarily by exports and a competitive model based on quality, customization, and brand strength. However, some gaps remain. challenges open: come on Costs productive to the difficulty finding qualified workers, human capital becomes the decisive game for the future.
This is what emerges from the analysis of theMediobanca Studies Area, which for years has been monitoring the dynamics of Italian medium-sized companies and the top tier of large manufacturing companies.
The so-called Fourth Capitalism includes companies with a workforce of between 50 and 499 employees and a 2024 sales volume of between €19 million and €415 million, as well as large companies with more than 499 employees and/or a turnover of up to €3 billion. These are primarily family-owned Italian manufacturing companies, key players in the country's industrial growth.
The economic, forecasting, and structural survey launched by Mediobanca in 2022 this year involved 4.350 companies, representing 29% of sales and 21% of the workforce in the entire Italian manufacturing sector. Responses came from 504 companies, representing 16% of the total turnover of the Italian IV Capitalism.
Turnover expected to increase in 2026, driven by exports
Le perspectives remain reviews: 62% of companies expect an increase in turnover in 2026, 18% stability and 20% a contraction.
Growth will be supported above all by foreign markets: 58% of companies expect an increase in exports, compared to 26% who expect stability and 16% who expect a decline. Overall, turnover is expected to grow by 2,5%, thanks mainly to exports (+3%) and, to a lesser extent, to the domestic market (+1,7%).
However, businesses remain conditioned by one complex international scenario: 81,9% call for an improvement in the global context to support development in the two-year period 2026-2027, 56,2% indicate the reduction of production costs as a priority and 41,3% emphasize the need to reduce the tax wedge on labor.
Quality, branding, and customization: the new competitive advantage
The strength of IV Capitalism is no longer based only on price, but on the ability to offer distinctive and high value-added products. For 65% of companies, Customization of the offer is the main competitive factor, followed by the brand strength (56%) and from quality of products (47%), which allows for premium pricing strategies. Also relevant are the staff skillsand (45,5%), technological innovation (34,8%), and market diversification (32,3%). More marginal, however, are sales price (22%), distribution network (13,2%), and environmental sustainability (10,9%). Over the past two years, companies have focused primarily on protecting margins and competitiveness (65,9%), strengthening their brand (41,9%), and expanding their product and service range (39,7%).
US tariffs: companies choose to defend the market
The report also highlights the impact of American protectionist policies57% of IV Capitalism companies export to the United States. Faced with American protectionist policies, the most common strategy has been to defend their position without changing prices.
45,7% of companies exporting to the US have maintained price lists remain unchanged without reducing sales volumes, while 29,6% maintained prices while accepting a reduction in export quantities. 16,6% instead chose to diversify into alternative markets. Structural strategies, such as opening factories in the United States (6,3%) or triangulating trade through third countries (3,6%), were more limited.
The real emergency remains human capital
While the economic outlook remains positive, the main obstacle concerns the work86% of companies report difficulty in finding the necessary figures.
The main problem is the gap between available skills and business needs (60%), followed by lack of candidates (51%). The most difficult profiles to find are above all runners (73%) and skilled workers (69,9%). To fill the gap, 76% of companies also employ foreign workers, who represent an average of 14% of the workforce. In 35,4% of cases, this choice is due to the difficulty of finding Italian workers for more demanding or less attractive jobs, while in 16,2% it helps compensate for the skills gap. Lower labor costs, however, remain a marginal motivation (1,9%).
Young talents, the new challenge for family businesses
Attracting young workers has become a priority. Over the last five years, 42% of hires have been for people under 35, but just over 60% of these workers are still with the company. 86% of companies believe they have a good ability to attract young people, but they identify some critical issues: less perceived flexibility (42,4%), few opportunities for professional growth (35,6%), and insufficient welfare (34,3%). To meet the challenge, over half of companies are focusing on welfare and benefits (51,5%) and training and skills development (51%). This is followed by merit-based incentives (39,7%), greater autonomy (33,8%), and agile or flexible working (26,2%).
Tools such as onboarding and mentoring (21,5%), internal mobility (20,5%) and involvement of young people in company processes (18,5%) are also growing.
La size familiar remains central: 63% of companies are controlled by a single family or individual, while 22% are controlled by multiple individuals related by family ties. Fifty-two percent of companies are in their second generation of entrepreneurs, 28% are still led by the founder, 14% are in their third generation, and the remaining 6% are in subsequent generations. Leadership turnover is complete in 33,3% of cases, underway in 14,5%, and planned in the next two years by 13,5% of companies. Among the main challenges are: resistance to change of the previous generation (50,4%), the heirs' disinterest in management (34,6%) and the lack of professional skills (31,1%).
Opening of capital: interest, but without losing control
The entry of new investors It remains a prudent decision. 17,2% of companies express immediate interest, 42,1% consider this option with caution, while 40,7% prefer to maintain independence and autonomy.
When considered, the opening of capital serves primarily to support the growth Through acquisitions (56,7%), financing investments (40,4%), and bringing in managerial expertise from outside the family (34,1%). The ideal partner is primarily industrial (69,9%), with a long-term vision (67,4%), and strategic and managerial capabilities (51,1%).
North and South, widespread trust but with different strategies
Le expectations for 2026 are positive in all areas of the country. northwest records the highest expected growth in turnover (+3,3%), while the South and the Islands show the highest expected growth in exports (+6,3%).
In North East coast The boost will come mainly from foreign markets (+2,5%), while the domestic market will grow by 0,6%. Growth in Central Italy will be more balanced, with domestic demand at +1,6% and exports at +2,1%. However, the difficulty in finding staff remains common to all regions: it affects 87% of companies in the Northwest, 88% of the North East, 80% of the Centro and 83% of the South e Islands.
