“International uncertainty and the still highly unstable geopolitical context” will lead bad loans of companies on the rise (that is, those credits that the person in debt is no longer able to repay regularly or at all). The relationship Abi-Cerved predicts that in 2026 the rate of deterioration of banks' credit to companies “will settle down to 2,8 % (from 2,6% in 2025). In 2027, "modest economic growth, persistent uncertainty, and a slightly increasing interest rate dynamic should push this indicator to 2,9%, while at the end of the forecast horizon, in 2028, it is expected to decline slightly to 2,8%: two tenths of a percentage point above 2025."
ABI-Cerved: Corporate bad loans on the rise
Il climate of instability in which companies operate "is also demonstrated by the continuing increase in the rate of deterioration of credit of non-financial companies reported by Bank of Italy: from the minimum value observed in 2021 (1,95%), a continuous albeit moderate growth was recorded, reaching 2,63% in 2025". The fconsumer families, on the other hand, supported by low interest rates and an increase in employment, showed a slightly decreasing trend, with the value for 2025 equal to 0,86% compared to 0,95% for 2024.
“Our estimates on the evolution of non-performing loans confirm that Italian companies operate in an uncertain and unstable scenario – comments Luca Peyrano, CEO of Cerved -. However, despite a slight expected deterioration, the estimates for 2028 show that the peaks reached in 2012 are far from being reached, demonstrating the improved profitability and capital position of our companies. "The data highlight signs of increased pressure on credit quality in a context characterized by high economic, geopolitical, and regulatory uncertainty. In this scenario, it will be essential to preserve the solidity of the banking sector and the conditions necessary for banks to continue to support families, businesses, and the real economy," commented the Director General of the ABI, Marco Elio Rottigni.
Bad loans: the hardest-hit sectors
The growth in bad loans that will affect Italian companies in 2026 and 2027 will affect large and small companies and all sectors with more significant increases this year for construction e industry and in 2027 for theagriculture. Looking at the Abi-Cerved report, it emerges that "the flow of new defaulted loans affects all the sectors considered: construction records the most significant increase, from 2,9% in 2025 to 3,3%, industry increases from 2,5% to 2,7% (the only sector that exceeds the level of the pre-Covid period, 2,3%, due to the significant contraction in production), services from 2,6% to 2,7%. More specifically, in industry, small businesses saw the highest increases (from 1,8% in 2025 to 2,3%), while microbusinesses saw more modest increases (from 3,0% to 3,2%).
In construction, a widespread increase is observed, which is higher than in all other sectors, but with different intensities:
modest in micro-enterprises (0,1 percentage points between 2025 and 2026, the only ones to remain below the pre-Covid level
3,0% vs. 4,1%), significant in medium and small (2,1 and 1,3 percentage points, respectively).
In the services sector, the dynamics are polarised: the risk for the micro enterprises (+0,2 percentage points), while it decreases for other size classes (approximately -0,3 percentage points). Agriculture shows widespread increases. In 2027, risk is expected to increase across all company size classes. As for the sectors, in 2027 all will record an increase in new non-performing loans: agriculture will record +0,2 percentage points, while industry, construction, and services will record +0,1 points.
