Volatile European stock markets While we await the US labor market data, investors' eyes are firmly on bonds. the storm over bonds which was unleashed yesterday on the markets, while oil continues to fall and the euro remains at its lowest level since May 2025 against the dollar, trading at 1,235 against the greenback.
Macro data: EU inflation hits three-year high, eyes on US jobs
Macroeconomic factors are also impacting market trends. Anticipation is growing for the publication of the data on the American labor market, This indicator will be particularly scrutinized for its potential implications for monetary policy, after the latest inflation figures and dovish statements from Fed leaders have dampened expectations of a further rate hike this month. A rate hike at the central bank's meeting on October 28 is now considered 26% likely, down from around 70% a few days ago, according to CME FedWatch.
Meanwhile, this morning Eurostat has published flash estimates on consumer prices, according to which theannual inflation in the euro area it should settle to 3,8% in September, up from the 3,2% recorded in August. On a quarterly basis, inflation is expected to be +0,6% in September, also up from the +0,4% recorded in August. Core inflation, excluding energy products and fresh food, stands at +2,2% year-on-year and +0,2% month-on-month. The energy component is weighing heavily, recording the highest annual rate in September at 18,8%, compared to 14,3% in August. The September year-on-year change is the highest since September 2023 (+ 4,3%).
Spreads continue to widen
In this context, the spread between BTp and Bund on a day when Italy and France are penalized by a flight-to-quality that mainly rewards the German Bund. At midday, the yield spread between Italy and Germany on the ten-year maturity stands at 127 basis points, at its highest since April 2025. The yield on the benchmark 10-year BTP, at 4,67%, sees the gap widen compared to the 10-year German Bund, which falls to 3,41% from the 3,52% reference rate the day before.
Spotlight on theOat. Following student protests and the presentation of the 2027 budget project by Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu, the yield on the French 10-year bond rose to 4,92%, while the spread with the German 10-year bond widened to 153 basis points at the mercy of debt worries.
High attention also overseas with the performance of the 10-year Treasuries at 5,247%, just below the 5,344% reached the day before, a new high since 2002.
Oil prices fall, Brent below 100
Instead, the decline in oil, Despite the Wall Street Journal reports that the US is sending a third aircraft carrier with another 10.000 soldiers Americans.
According to a report Bloomberg The drop in crude oil is due to rumours that some European countries are discussing the release of strategic reserves to mitigate the surge in fuel prices. In detail, Reuters reports that EU countries may release 50 million barrels of diesel and members of the International Energy Agency 50 million barrels of crude oil.
And so the Brent returns below the psychological threshold of 100 dollars and moves to 99,8 dollars per barrel, down 2,4%. The decline in the wtf Texas (-3,5%) which falls to 89,4 dollars a barrel. The price of gas leaves 3% on the ground at 71,7 euros per megawatt hour.
Stock Market: Europe Volatile After Inflation
In this context, European stock markets are prey to volatility, but continue to attempt to rebound after the sharp drops recorded on Thursday. Frankfurt and Amsterdam are the best places, both up by 1,1%. Also buoyant Paris (+0,77%) despite protests and concerns about the country's financial stability. Positive figures also Madrid (+ 0,45%) and London (+ 0,38%).
Milan is the most backward: the banks weigh heavily
Piazza Affari was also volatile, having gone into the red but advancing by 0,2% to 50.356 points at mid-day, balanced between strong purchases in tech and equally strong sales in banks.
At the top of the Ftse Mib are placed Technoprobe and Prysmian, which gain 5 and 4,2% respectively, followed by stmicroelectronics (+3%). He runs Stellantis (+3,94%), which yesterday announced that registrations in Italy increased by 12,6% in September, compared to a 9,92% increase for the market. These figures are pushing the stock higher, moving away from its lows amid expectations of a recovery in volumes in the fourth quarter of the year. However, the stock remains the worst performer on the market since the beginning of the year, down more than 57%.
On the opposite side the black jersey is Fincantieri (-2,1%), The banking sector is in the red, with Unicredit The stock market is down 1,58% as the guessing game begins for the new top management of Commerzbank: according to Handelsblatt, Michael Diederich, currently at Deutsche Bank but with a past at HVB, the German subsidiary of the group led by Andrea Orcel, is in pole position to replace CEO Bettina Orlopp. Sales are also on Bper (-1,5%) And Bpm bank (-1,4%). Down too Poste Italiane (-1,2%) after the purchase of a further 1% of Tim (+0,2%) on the market for 159 million.
