To finance the Budget law the government think of make cash on pensions, again. As is known, the Ministry of Economy and Finance is looking for solutions to recover resources in order to keep some electoral promises. But pensions are not among these. On the contrary, the possibility of one becomes more and more concrete partial revaluation, compared to inflation, of the social security check for 2024. And so the dream of 41 quota or the increase of minimum pensions.
He talked about it La Repubblica recalling the last cut, in 2022, when the mechanism that adjusts the amounts of pensions to the cost of living made it possible to recover 10 billion in three years, a good 37 billion over the decade. For next year, if this measure were implemented, a possible recovery would be expected which amounts to 5,7%.
The Meloni government on the hunt for 25-30 billion
This year, however, there's a lot of irons on the fire: you're aiming for one financial of 25-30 billion, But the deficit it does not even reach a fifth of the figure. Prime Minister Meloni has already confirmed the tax wedge cut for 2024, a measure that alone will require between 8 and 10 billion euros. Then there is the reform fiscal, not to mention the high cost of energy and the high cost of petrol for which new bonuses are being evaluated for the poorest families. But time flies by: there is a month left for Nadef, the note that updates the macroeconomic picture, then, in October, the budget planning document to be sent to Brussels will be defined. Already last year the Meloni government changed calculation method, replacing the brackets (restored by the Draghi government) to the less favorable system for bands (known as the "Letta method"). And what can we expect in 2024?
Pensions: how will they change in 2024?
In 2024, the inflation of 2023 should recover, which is currently expected to be around 5,7% (but the data are those of the April Def). If the government does not change the rules, the law will be confirmed divided into six bands. If instead he decides to intervene, for example by adding other bands or lowering the percentage of revaluation, he would be able to find some more resources to finance the maneuver, but penalizing even more some pensioners. Everything will depend on how much the Ministry of Economy and Accounting will be able to raise from other funds not spent by the ministries or from cutting tax bonuses. Or, again, from the possible ones privatizations, with a new round of sale of non-strategic state shareholdings announced surprisingly by Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti on the sidelines of the first CDM after the summer break.
Ma why does the government raise funds for pensions? The logic is very simple. Either wages or pensions are cut. If we were to act on active workers, the effect would be immediate with visible results in the pay slip. A different story for the revaluation of pensions: we are less aware of it, because there is no obvious decline but only a lower increase than expected. So you don't take away something given.
Pensions: is the indexation cut unconstitutional?
I cuts to revaluations of pensions could have a boomerang effect on the government. Because the Constitutional Court could evaluate the mechanism unconstitutional. Already in the past, with the sentence n. 234 of 2020, the Constitutional Court specified that the revision of the revaluation bands is not legitimate when it is "repeated", thus contesting all those measures "intended to paralyze the adjustment mechanism". Because preventing a number of retirees from recovering part of the inflation means penalizing them permanently, as a one-year cut reduces the amount of the pension which will be subject to revaluation the following year.
In this regard, it should be remembered that in the last 5 years only with the government led by Mario Draghi (2022) one was implemented full reassessment, as regulated by the law n. 448 of 1998, and it is for this reason that Uil pensioni has launched pilot cases against the cut in the revaluation of pensions, counting on obtaining a favorable opinion from the Constitutional Court as soon as possible. Reason why, the path of the cut to the revaluation will be taken only as a last resort.
Pensions: Quota 41 a promise broken from the outset
On the contrary the League of Matteo Salvini never abandoned the idea of implementing the anti-Fornero reform through the mechanism of 41 quota. Even if it already seemed like a lost game from the start. The same exit from work for everyone regardless of age with 41 years of contributions remains a mirage and the secretary of the League and minister of Infrastructure and transport has finally understood that at the moment he cannot insist. Minister Giorgetti again sweeps away any doubts. “The amount of the maneuver will also depend on factors of a European type. In the middle of the month we will discuss, maybe we will find an agreement maybe not, on the new EU budget rules”. For now it seems increasingly likely the extension of one year of the present 103 quota (41 years of contributions and 62 years of age) or to extend the Ape Social to other categories such as overworkers and women. What is certain is that once again, the right-wing electoral promises on pensions collide with reality.
