Italy"remains vulnerable to the contagion of the crisis", but the Government has implemented "an ambitious agenda to ensure stability and promote growth“. It is the judgment of International Monetary Fund, which today published the final report of the annual inspection mission in our country.
Looking at the numbers, the deficit decreased from 4,5% of GDP in 2010 to 3,9% in 2011, "in line with the Government's objectives" and should continue to fall to 2,6% in 2012 and 1,5% in XNUMX next year. The GDP real is expected to contract by 1,9% this year and 0,3% next year, while inflation it should come in at 3% this year and 2,1% in 2013.
The rate of unemployment, after 8,4% in 2011, should rise to 10,3% in 2012 and 11,1% next year. The debt, which stood at 120,1% of GDP in 2011, is expected to rise to 125,8% in 2012 and 126,4% in 2013.
In addition, Italy has already "implemented a series of fiscal adjustments and a package of reforms to improve its accounts - underline Kenneth Kang, head of the Article IV mission of the International Monetary Fund in Italy, and Aasim Husain, deputy director of the department European Union of the IMF – and will have the primary surplus highest among the countries of the Eurozone”. According to the report, Italy's primary surplus should rise to over 4% by 2013: according to the IMF, it should go from 3% of GDP in 2012 to 4,2% in 2013.
According to the IMF, with a large package of structural reforms Italy would be able to increase the size of its economy by 5,75% in five years, and according to the International Monetary Fund this would allow the peninsula to cut the debt ratio and GDP at 108 percent for 2017.
As for the risks, “Italy – continues the report – is vulnerable to the contagion of the euro area crisis and financial tensions. Despite significant fiscal consolidation, spreads on Italian government bonds remain high, and the annual volume of debt maturing for the state and banks is substantial.
Click here for the full text of the IMF report.
