Le European stock exchanges they inaugurate October with a minus sign. The main focus is on the return of pressures on inflation, government bond yields and Petroleum. And the tech stocks rally in Asia and the United States is not enough to straighten the session on the Old Continent, after September inflation data showed higher-than-expected increases in several major European economies.
Milan loses 1,15%, Frankfurt 1,24%, Paris 1,37%, Madrid 1,59% and London 1,71%. Meanwhile, in Paris, the government is expected to present a plan for a significant reduction in the budget deficit, while investors remain vigilant about the country's debt.
Rising inflation in Europe, markets under pressure: what's changing for the ECB and the Fed?
The main pressure comes from prices. September readings of Germany, France, Italy e Spain, released yesterday, highlighted a higher-than-expected acceleration in inflation. In Italy, the rate rose to 4,2%, from 3,3% in August; in Spain, it rose from 4,6% to 5%. In France, inflation increased from 2,6% to 3,4%, while in Germany, it rose from 2,9% to 3,3%. The acceleration was driven primarily by energy prices and, to some extent, food prices.
The picture thus brings the issue of the central banks' next moves to the forefront. Operators have reduced expectations for a ECB rate hike in October, while the yield on the two-year Bund fell by around 9 basis points.
She also spoke on the subject Isabel Schnabel, a member of the ECB board, said the coming months will provide a better understanding of how the energy shock is spreading to the economy. The key question for markets is how long the renewed pressure on prices can last without complicating the path of monetary policy.
Even on the US front the situation remains delicate. Treasury yield The 10-year yield has returned to near 5,3%, returning to particularly high levels, close to the highest levels in recent decades. Expectations for a Fed rate hike in October have instead fallen to 37%, from 71% a week ago, according to CME FedWatch data, following the previous day's better-than-expected GDP and inflation data.
PMI and US data today, Eurozone inflation on Friday
The day is particularly rich on the macroeconomic front. In Eurozone manufacturing PMI data expected in Europe, France, Italy, and Germany. This afternoon, the United States will release initial jobless claims and the ISM manufacturing index, expected by economists at 55.
The most anticipated data of the week for European markets will arrive on Friday, with the first estimate of eurozone inflation for September. Expectations point to a rate of 3,7%, the highest in nearly three years. On the same day, labor market data will be released from the United States, with approximately 85 new jobs expected.
On the central banking front, several interventions are also planned. Christine Lagarde He will speak at 15:30 PM in Frankfurt, at the opening of a European Systemic Risk Board conference, while Schnabel will speak at 17:30 PM, attending a panel on monetary policy in London. Representatives from the Fed and the Bank of England are also expected to speak throughout the day.
Asia's Nikkei surges with semiconductors and artificial intelligence.
If caution prevails in Europe, in Asia the music was different. The Nikkei 225 The Topix closed up 3,30% at 68.956,72 points, after gaining 1,9% the previous session. The index was driven primarily by semiconductor and artificial intelligence stocks: Advantest rose 8,5%, Disco Corp 5%, and Tokyo Electron 5,96%. The Topix closed at 4.131,98 points, up 0,57%.
Micron's positive guidance on the sector's outlook, following record quarterly results, supported the technology sector. However, the company warned that rising personnel costs could weigh on margins.
The Japanese stock market was also helped by the weaker yen, after minutes from the Bank of Japan meeting dampened expectations of a second consecutive rate hike. Markets in mainland China and Hong Kong, however, remained closed for holidays.
The good performance of the Asian technology sector is also reflected in the Wall Street futuresNasdaq gains around 0,48%, supported by Micron's indications, while the DJ and S&P 500 are in the red.
Piazza Affari: Banks under pressure, tech is doing well
In Milan, the semiconductor sector continues to benefit from the strong global performance of chips following Micron's guidance. Techno probe, in particular, is on its third consecutive day of rally, while also stmicroelectronics e Prysmian show good grip.
Among other titles, Eni is under observation after the completion of the shareholder and governance reorganization of Fullness. It also remains in the spotlight Recordati, following the complaint filed with Consob by the family office Tokos SCF regarding the fairness of the €51,29 per share tender offer launched by CVC and GBL. The Board of Directors was divided on its assessment of the offer: six directors deemed it fair, while four independent directors voted against it.
Banks in the red, with their eyes on the banking risk: In view of theMPS meeting on October 29, the bank has specified that the approval of the two takeover bids on Banco Bpm and Banca Generali will be separate from the acquisition of 13,3% of Generali as part of the Mediobanca transaction. The merger, if approved, would also include an extraordinary distribution to shareholders and would leave MPS with an 8,8% stake in the capital of Generali. Meanwhile, Leone has approved by majority the merger plan by incorporation of Insurance Alliance. Still on the banking front, according to what was reported by the German media, the unions of Commerzbank they would have reported to UniCredit a willingness to cooperate, after about two years of opposition.
Tail light too Tim e Post.
Out of the main basket, Webuild announced that it has obtained the authorization required by Italian legislation on Golden Powers in connection with the offer on Trevi. Bank Ifis, instead, quantified the impact of the Bank of Italy's inspection on the income statement at 170 million euros, net of the provisions already accounted for in the first half of the year. Bff Bank Finally, it announced the sale of a portfolio of non-performing loans worth 127 million euros, a transaction that reduces the capital deficit expected for 2028.
Government bond yields rise againThe Italian 10-year bond rose to 4,71%, from 4,60% at the previous close, reaching its highest level in the last three years. The spread with the Bund of the same maturity, which rises to 109 basis points, four more than the day before and once again above the 100 level.
The other markets
Il Petroleum is trying to recover ground after yesterday's decline, but still remains below key levels. Brent is moving just below $100 a barrel, while WTI is rising slightly but remains below $92. According to the Financial TimesUS President Donald Trump is also reportedly pushing for a possible ban on American diesel exports, with the aim of containing prices ahead of the midterm elections.
However, attention remains focused on the Strait of HormuzOil market movements appear to reflect the possibility of easing tensions and a possible reopening of the route. On Wednesday, options pointing to a drop in Brent prices outnumbered those pointing to a rise by nearly three to one. This signals greater caution regarding price stability, even though there is still no agreement on reopening Hormuz.
Little moved the gas Ttf of Amsterdam, at 72,1 euros per MWh (-0,3%). THE' rises slightly to $4.191 an ounce, while theeuro remains at lows of 1,1321 dollars, against 1,1331 the day before.
