A new collapse in prices of crude Following news that Iranian fuel could soon hit global markets, it offered relief for the outlook for inflation and pushed down the government bond yields, while stocks and currencies they remained more calm in view of the outcome of the first Fed meeting under Kevin Warsh.
Brent crude slips to pre-war levels below $79. Goldman Sachs lowers its estimates.
Markets appear to be pricing in a relatively high probability of a complete normalization of the flow of Hormuz after its three-month blockade drained oil supplies, with U.S. reserves at their lowest since 1983. Few details of the U.S.-Iran deal, which is expected to be signed on Friday, have yet to be publicly confirmed. However, a senior U.S. official said that the US to drop sanctions on Iranian oil, As part of the agreement to end the war, opening the prospect of millions of barrels of additional supply, Iranian tankers were seen crossing the US blockade zone, the first time in two months.
Brent crude oil fell below $79 a barrel, hitting its lowest level since the start of the conflict between the United States and Iran three months ago. Prices have fallen 15% in the last four sessions, recording the longest losing streak of the year on the prospect that the reopening of Hormuz could trigger a nuclear war. a wave of supply of crude oil.
Gold man Sachs It lowered its estimate for Brent crude in the fourth quarter of 2026 to $80 from $90 previously, and its estimate for 2027 to $75 from $80. Strategists said that flows in the Gulf have already increased to about 11 million barrels per day, and that reaching pre-war export levels would require only an increase of 12 million barrels per day through the Strait of Hormuz, up to 70% of pre-war volumes. Moreover, Iranian production could increase further thanks to the easing of sanctions.
Warsh's Fed Premiere Takes Place
A first time is always in the spotlight. And so it will be for Kevin Warsh who replaced Powell as head of the Fed and today makes his first statements at the end of the FOMC meeting. The market's attention will focus on how he will vote, on his press conference and how he will be able to explain the future perspectivesWarsh is not a supporter of forward guidance and may choose to refrain from providing an interest rate projection in the quarterly economic outlook released by the U.S. central bank. In particular, he expects a change in the way the Fed communicates with markets, as Warsh is unlikely to present his own “dot plot,” a closely watched chart, breaking with the practice followed by Jerome Powell, Janet Yellen and Ben Bernanke.
Warsh was chosen by Trump to cut rates but, with inflation above the target and employment solid, in theory it should instead increase them, say analysts who remain very uncertain about the trajectory of rates. Warsh will also have to deal with a board of directors in which his predecessor, Jerome Powell, still has the right to vote. Investors generally expect the Fed to keep interest rates in thecurrent range Between 3,50% and 3,75%. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, market participants expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged for much of the year, but are betting on a roughly 42% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike in December.
In addition to the Fed meeting, today the Swedish Riksbank It is expected to keep rates unchanged, but signal the possibility of a hike by the end of the year. Tomorrow, it will be the Bank of England's turn.
Yesterday, Wall Street focused on sectors sensitive to the economy rather than to tech.
Yesterday a Wall Street The Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500 closed lower, under pressure from technology stocks, taking a breather after the previous day's strong rally, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average recorded its second consecutive record close. Dow Jones closed up 0,64%, S & P 500 down 0,57%, Nasdaq down 1,15%. Investors were move towards economically sensitive sectors and they have sold technology stocks overvalued during the session, with the stocks of semiconductors down sharply after having risen dramatically in the previous three sessions.
SpaceX It rallied, but then reversed its initial gains. For much of the session, the rocket and artificial intelligence company's market capitalization was higher than that of Amazon and briefly surpassed that of Microsoft. SpaceX closed up nearly 5% at $201,80, bringing its market cap to $2.638 billion. During the session, it reached a record price of $225,64. The performance compared to the IPO price ($135) is already nearly 50%. SpaceX has formally reached an agreement for theacquisition of Cursor, an artificial intelligence startup, valuing the company at $60 billion, thus cementing a key element of Elon Musk’s strategy to catch up with competitors in the programming tools sector.
U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick reports Bloomberg, he warned anthropic that the company would need government permission to allow Foreign citizens access to its most advanced artificial intelligence models, threatening criminal and civil penalties for non-compliance. Today Wall Street futures on the rise (Nasdaq up 0,5%)
Asia shares rise slightly, government bond yields fall
Asian stock markets are mostly cautiously higher ahead of the Fed, while government bond yields fall. In JapanTokyo's Nikkei index is up 1%. Nomura Up 4%: Japan's largest brokerage firm raised its medium-term profit targets after a year of record earnings. Pretax profit is estimated at 750 billion yen ($4,7 billion) by the fiscal year ending March 2031, exceeding the previous target of more than 500 billion yen. Annual return on equity—a key indicator of profitability—is expected to be between 10% and 12%, up from the previous target of 8% to 10% or more. trade balance Japan's economy returned to deficit for the first time in four months, as the weak yen boosted the value of imports despite declining volumes. The deficit in May was 378,6 billion yen ($2,36 billion), compared to expectations of 547,6 billion yen. The yen averaged 158,29 to the dollar in May, depreciating 10% from a year ago, according to the ministry. A weaker yen makes imports of raw materials, including energy resources, more expensive, reducing suppliers' profit margins even as exporters gain a competitive advantage abroad.
In China the Hang Seng Index Hong Kong is at -0,5%. The CSI 300 of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges is +0,1%. The Taiwan Taiex is -0,5%. Chinese central bank he hinted at a potential change in its interest rate framework, focusing on the overnight rate, a move that would bring it more in line with other central banks globally. The People's Bank of China will improve the adjustment of short-term interest rates and increase overnight repo operations at the appropriate time, Governor Pan Gongsheng said. China also announced new money market measures to expand the use of its currency among entities such as foreign central banks and sovereign wealth funds. Furthermore, Chinese authorities will likely be forced to evaluate new measures to support the economy after the May data highlighted a further weakening of domestic demand.
The index Kospi Seoul is up 0,5%. South Korea's money supply posted its fastest annual growth rate in three years in April, as microchip exporters flooded the banking system with liquidity from the global artificial intelligence boom. The BSE Sensex index Mumbai, +0,5%. Straits Times by Singapore + 1%.
I government bond yields decennial from Japan fell by 1,5 basis points to 2,63%, while those on 10-year bonds Australians fell nearly 5 basis points to 4,787%, while yields on similar-maturity U.S. Treasuries remained near one-month lows.
The index of the dollar lost 0,1%, the yen moved little, at 160,2 to the dollar. held onto its gains after rising more than 6% in the last four sessions.Bitcoin consolidates Monday's +4% jump, remaining above the 20-month lows reached last week at 59 thousand dollars.
European stock markets saw little change at the start. At Piazza Affari, all eyes were on banks and Leonardo.
European futures point to a relatively calm opening for European markets: the Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0,1%.
Bpm bank Yesterday, the Board of Directors did not finalize the terms of a possible transaction with Monte dei Paschi. According to press reports, Bami is awaiting MPS's response before making an official proposal.
Diasorin – Deutsche Bank has cut its rating to Sell, with a target price of 58 euros.
Leonardo – It was awarded, together with some partners, the Erap program.
Unicredit – It has reached 42,4% of Commerzbank as part of the 40 billion euro takeover bid that began on May 5.
