Barring any dramatic developments, the ECB will raise rates by a quarter of a percentage point at its meeting on Thursday, September 10th. The future, however, remains more uncertain.
The Federal Reserve chairman doesn't rule out further hikes and urges Wall Street to stop looking to the central bank's words for guidance. The dollar and yields are rising, with assets most sensitive to the cost of money under pressure.
The Federal Reserve has held off on an imminent rate cut and continues to prioritize credibility in the fight against inflation. Some board members favor an even more restrictive stance, which would lead to a rise in...
The halt comes after the rate hikes announced in June. "Uncertainty caused by the conflict in the Middle East remains high," the ECB says. Lagarde: "I won't leave before 2027."
During his debut speech in Sintra, Warsh said that inflation risks have diminished: "Interest rates must return to being the main instrument of monetary policy, the Fed's balance sheet will have to shrink."
The ECB president's words are being interpreted by markets as a sign of a reduction in expectations for short-term rate cuts. "We must not move too quickly," Lagarde said.
The ECB's Economic Bulletin: "Interest rate decisions will be based on the assessment of the inflation outlook and associated risks, in the light of incoming economic and financial data. The Governing Council does not commit to…
The precious metal is particularly affected by the strength of the U.S. dollar and growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain its restrictive stance. Silver is also down, falling below $60 an ounce yesterday.
The U.S. central bank's board, under Warsh's new leadership, kept rates between 3,50% and 3,75%. At his first press conference, Trump's nominee made it clear that inflation will remain...
All eyes are on every detail emerging from the new Fed chairman's speech and how he intends to address rising inflation and solid employment. Brent crude returns to pre-war levels in Iran on expectations of strong...
The deposit rate rises to 2,25%. The ECB board unanimously decides. Lagarde: "The risks are upward for inflation and downward for growth."
In the next two weeks, all the major central banks will meet and make decisions. In 2020-22, they underestimated the wave of inflation and were slow to act. Today, the conditions are very different: if they raised rates for fear of making the same mistake,…
The ceremony took place at the White House, with President Donald Trump in the front row and Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas administering the oath. Warsh replaces outgoing President Jerome Powell.
ECB, what the economic bulletin says: the war in the Middle East "is weighing on economic activity" and the data "point to a weakening of growth since the outbreak of the war", with consumer and business confidence about the future having "undermined"
The ECB's 2025 annual report marks a turning point for the Eurozone, with inflation returning to close to 2% and growth better than expected, but the outlook for 2026 remains more cautious. Vice President Luis De Guindos calls for…
The US central bank kept the federal funds rate range between 3,5% and 3,75%, but the meeting highlighted a growing internal division on the outlook for monetary policy.
4-year Premium Bond from Poste Italiane, 3% gross yield at maturity, new liquidity, early repayment and requirements: here's how it works and who it's suitable for
"The economy is growing but we will decide from meeting to meeting", said the president of the US central bank, now nearing the end of his mandate which will certainly not be renewed even if he will remain on the board until 2028.
The ECB's final meeting of 2025 ended with rates unchanged, but it forecast stronger economic growth. Lagarde: "The economy is resilient, but strengthening the euro area is urgent."
U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell announced the widely anticipated rate reduction, the third consecutive in 2025, following the one at the end of October. The "dots" confirmed projections for further cuts in the coming years.
The ECB hasn't raised any surprises regarding the cost of borrowing. Lagarde believes the impact of tariffs will be visible over time, but the truce in Gaza, the US-China agreement, and the EU-US trade deal have mitigated some downside risks.
The measure, widely expected by markets that are in positive territory today, passed with 10 votes in favor and 2 against. Starting December 1st, sales of portfolio securities will cease.
The president of the US central bank admits that "the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is still restrictive" and that therefore a further cut is more than possible after the 25 basis point cut announced last week.
The cut had been expected by markets for several weeks and repeatedly called for by the White House. The favorable inflation trend convinced the central bank to lower the rate to a range between 4% and 4,25%. Here's how it went…
Lagarde: "The disinflationary process is over, we're in a good position." "Trade uncertainty has decreased, and risks are more balanced." On France: "We're monitoring market trends; we have tools to address them if transmission isn't efficient."
The Unipol-Bper-Popolare Sondrio team, along with Leonardo, is leading the progress of Milan, one of Europe's most successful stock exchanges. Markets are keeping a close eye on the Fed and the Trump-Putin summit on Ukraine in August.
In the second quarter of 2025, according to Bankitalia, buying or renting a house in Italy will become increasingly expensive due to rising prices and rents, while the supply of properties will decrease, especially due to the effect of short-term rentals.
Trump is attacking Powell from several angles, according to his "Flood the Zone" strategy. The Fed chairman is resisting. The FOMC meeting is next week: interest rates are expected to remain unchanged.
The deposit rate remains at 2%. ECB: "The economy is holding up, but the outlook remains exceptionally uncertain, especially due to trade disputes." Lagarda hopes for a quick resolution to the negotiations.
A decision awaited by the market that will allow the ECB to evaluate the economic context and the effect of possible tariffs
According to research by Fabi, last year Italian banks recorded overall profits of €46,5 billion (+14%), rising to €112 billion over the three-year period. Revenues are expected to surge to exceed €300 billion in 2022-2024.
At the Monetary Policy Forum in Sintra, Portugal, the Fed chairman responded indirectly to Donald Trump, who had put him under pressure: "I will continue working, 2025 will be a difficult year". Lagarde: "EU inflation at 2%, target achieved but we remain…
In his weekly column “Il Rosso e Il Nero” Kairos strategist Alessandro Fugnoli explains the reasons why markets are holding up in the face of the Israel-Iran conflict and explains the reasons, in the short and medium term,…
The ECB cut rates by 0,25%, bringing the deposit rate to 2%, underlining the "exceptional uncertainty" that characterizes the current context due to the trade war. Lagarde: The president: "Today we arrive at the end of the monetary policy cycle".…
The central bank confirms “one or two cuts within the year” but warns of possible recession, while Nvidia records record revenues (+69% year-on-year thanks to Data Centers), but signals growing risks linked to tensions with China
Mortgage rates and consumer credit: what are the advantages for families after the rate cut by the ECB? Between calculations and estimates, on a 30-year loan the impact can reach 200 euros per month
The Chairman of the Federal Reserve predicts that the tariffs will also have a negative impact on unemployment. "Tariff increases significantly larger than expected and so will their effects." Until there is a clear picture, the Fed will not touch rates
After the Fed's no-show yesterday, today it's the turn of the Bank of England, the Swiss National Bank and the Riksbank to announce their decision on rates. European stock markets are seen opening at parity. Keep an eye on Nexi, A2a
The ECB's further 0,25% cut in interest rates will have an impact on consumers' pockets that could mean - depending on the type and duration of the home loan - up to…
ECB President Christine Lagarde warned that a trade war, caused by US tariffs, could slow eurozone growth and increase uncertainty about inflation. “Tariffs are bad in every sense”
At the Astrid Foundation, a paper by Pierpaolo Benigno and Edoardo Reviglio on "European Safe Assets" was discussed, within a project for policy proposals on European governance, coordinated by Giuliano Amato, Franco Bassanini, Marco Buti, Paolo Gentiloni, Marcello…
After an already positive start, European stock markets closed with large gains after a lively start on Wall Street, with Milan consolidating above 36.000 points. The automotive sector was the driving force: Iveco and…
The ECB continues to distance itself from the Fed, so much so that in 2025 the two central banks will follow two very different paths. Between doves and hawks, here are the expectations for next year
In a week of key monetary events and political turmoil, investors remain in control. Bitcoin continues to rally. European stocks closely follow German events
In 2023, the increase in mortgage interest rates, caused by the ECB's anti-inflation measures, made financing more expensive. Now, with inflation under control, rates have returned to historic levels and in Italy the APR on mortgages…
Third rate cut for the ECB. "We are heading for a soft landing", reassured Lagarde, admitting however that "the economy is weaker than expected". Stock markets rise, Piazza Affari above 35 thousand points
After the cuts in June and September, the Eurotower cuts rates again by 25 basis points. Stock markets rise. ECB on prices: "Target of 2% will be reached during the next year"
Inflation continues to weigh on the Eurozone, with forecasts of an increase of up to 2,5% in 2024. The ECB will act on rates with flexibility, without following a specific path, but based on economic data.
From the Franciscans of the 13th century to the current debates on bank extra profits, money is always at the center of controversy. Demand deposits are not savings, and taxing extra profits seems more like an electoral promise than a concrete solution.…
It's Fed Day. Today, the U.S. central bank will announce its first rate cut in four years, but uncertainty is rising about the amount. Eyes on Powell, how will the markets react?
Commenting on the Unicredit-Commerzbank deal, Lagarde said: "Banking consolidation has been long-awaited, it will be interesting to see how it goes." And on the Draghi Report: "These are structural reforms, I hope that the authorities in charge will follow that path." Inflation estimates confirmed, revised those…
With today's decision, the deposit rate goes from 3,75% to 3,50%. Due to the new operating framework, the other two drop by 60 points. The ECB confirms its inflation estimates
From the Jackson Hole symposium Jerome Powers confirms: "the upside risks to inflation have decreased, while the downside risks to employment have increased. The time has come to cut rates." Stocks rising sharply
The Nobel Prize winner for Economics warns that the Fed must urgently cut rates. While it might seem like an attempt to influence US elections, Krugman stresses that the cut is necessary for economic, not political, reasons
After the ECB, the Bank of England also distances itself from the Federal Reserve and cuts interest rates, encouraged by the return of inflation. But Governor Bailey warns: "Prices will rise, caution is needed"
The ECB does not reveal itself and does not provide indications on the next moves: "We are not committed to any particular rate reduction path," says Lagarde. Inflation above 2% also in 2025, price pressures still high
The stock markets are celebrating the failure to achieve an absolute majority in the French elections. Political uncertainty wins over the fear that an extremist government will arrive. Spreads are falling, while yields on German bunds are rising
Taylor Swift not only broke records with her world tour "The Eras Tour", but also sparked a debate about the global economic impact, influencing inflation and prompting central banks to react
Twentieth episode of Guide to Finance created for FIRSTonline by Ref Ricerche with the collaboration of Allianz Bank Financial Advisors: a journey into the world of hedge funds in the light of interest rates and the evolution of indexing in the modern stock market illustrated…
Nineteenth episode of the Financial Guide created for FIRSTonline by Ref Ricerche with the support of Allianz Bank Financial Advisors. We talk about the centrality of exchange rates, fundamental in economies open to the rest of the world. He explains the importance of it…
No indication from Christine Lagarde on the ECB's next moves: "The speed and timing of the reduction remain uncertain". She then specifies: "We have not entered a phase of rate reduction"
After three years of restrictive monetary policy, the first rate cut since 2016 arrives, but the ECB warns: "Price pressures remain strong". The new estimates on GDP and inflation
Investors' eyes are focused on the words of Christine Lagarde who could give indications on the next moves, waiting for US data. Europe positive dragged by tech stocks, oil tries to rebound, spread down
In its latest report, the Autonomous Federation of Italian Banks takes stock of mortgages, certifying the drop in rates. Strong reduction for the fixed, but the variable is also starting to decline
The Fed's interest rates remain unchanged. President Jerome Powell explained that American inflation is still too high and that the path to reducing it "is uncertain" as rate cuts now become uncertain. We will see…
The economy remained weak in the first quarter of 2024 but is expected to strengthen in the coming months. Inflation is expected to remain stable before falling to 2% next year, despite the risk of a rise due to the war in…
In the 2023 annual report, the ECB underlined the consolidation of progress against inflation, attributing it to a total increase in interest rates of 200 basis points, with clear effects also on BTP yields
Saturday 13 April on FIRSTonline the new edition of Lancette dell'economia, the monthly economic analysis column edited by Fabrizio Galimberti and Luca Paolazzi
If inflation continues to approach the objective, "it will be appropriate to reduce the current level of monetary policy restriction", the Governing Council puts it in black and white. Lagarde: "We don't commit in advance, but we decide meeting after meeting"
By virtue of the latest inflation data, the ECB could start reducing rates in June, bonds are flying. Fineco runs in Milan, Stellantis goes down after registration data
Interview with Jakob de Haan, president of Suerf, one of the most important groups of central bankers, economists and financial managers – “It seems that the period of high inflation will soon be behind us” – “At the moment wage increases are the indicator…
As happened to many other central banks in the euro zone, in 2023 the Bank of Italy recorded a gross loss of 7 billion, but the risk fund absorbed the red and the year ended with a profit...
The Fed's fluctuating interest rate policy is putting the brakes on Asian markets. European stock markets open with caution in the last session of the quarter, which promises to be the best in recent years
In the latest economic bulletin, the ECB's governing council sees a brighter picture and says it is "ready to adapt all instruments to reach the inflation target of 2%. However, the risks for economic growth remain oriented towards the downside"
The Bank of Japan lowered its key interest rate to zero percent from minus 0,1 percent previously. Also stop the yield control program
The Rising Sun raises its head. No more zero rates. Wages are rising, Toyota is leading the charge but not everyone trusts. Inflation is already scary but for the big names the stock market is bull
The stock market rise has been going on for 18 consecutive months and sooner or later the correction will come. In the last episode of the podcast Al 4° piano, Kairos strategist Alessandro Fugnoli explains how to behave
Neither US inflation nor worse-than-expected industrial production are affecting the mood of European stock markets, which are all still on the rise. In Frankfurt, eyes on Adidas, Zalando and Volkswagen. Inditex drags Madrid
Gold reached new all-time highs rising to $2.100 an ounce. Switzerland also buys the metal. What is behind the rally?
The loss would actually have been 7,8 billion, but 6,6 billion was covered with the risk fund, which was thus eliminated.
According to Bank of Italy, after 24 months of consecutive increases and after reaching the highest level of the last 15 years in November, last December mortgage rates for families fell to 4,82% against 4,92 in the month...
Last year, almost 20% of UK-listed companies issued a profit warning. A figure that even exceeds that recorded during the 2008 financial crisis, according to Ernst & Young
Btp Value on offer until Friday. Rate cut, eyes on the Milan Fed. Milan black top in the EU, managed savings securities suffer. Oil companies are doing well
The debt-ridden Chinese real estate giant is in liquidation. In Europe the rate cut is closer, France launches the diktat. In the spotlight banks and managed
The third issue of the BTP Valore brings with it something new: the duration is lengthened due to the drop in interest rates. Here's everything you need to know
In the latest episode of the podcast "Al 4° piano", Kairos strategist Alessandro Fugnoli talks about what awaits us in 2024 which, "with due care", could be a positive year for investors
Not even the words of the ECB president today in Davos have stopped the pessimism of the markets, fueled by the news arriving from the Red Sea. The risk of recession pushes gas higher. Weak stocks and bonds
The effects of the first electoral challenges of the year stand out: in Taiwan the anti-China party wins. On the internal front, the dossier on the former Ilva is in the foreground. Inflation data for December will be released on Tuesday
Eighth episode of Guide to Finance, published by FIRSTonline, distributed in 16 languages and created by REF Ricerche with the collaboration of Allianz Bank Financial Advisors – Carluccio Bianchi, prof. Applied Macroeconomics contract at DiGSPES explains what…
The decreasing trend in prices should contribute to the increase in real incomes, while exports will align with the improvement in foreign demand. Geopolitical risk from war in Ukraine and the Middle East
Saturday on FIRSTonline the eighth episode of Guide to finance created by REF Ricerche with the collaboration of Allianz Bank Financial Advisors. Professor of macroeconomics at the University of Eastern Piedmont Carluccio Bianchi will explain what the yield curve is and how…
A survey by C2 Partners probes the sentiment of banks on the main topics of the period: from the next reduction in interest rates, to M&A, Big Tech and artificial intelligence
2023 has overcome recession fears with moderate growth. In 2024, inflation falls, but central banks navigate their policies uncertainly with the possibility of surprises in financial markets. The point on the economic situation by…
Stock markets around parity after the rally of the last few days, Wall Street futures are progressing. At Piazza Affari Leonardo is at its highest level for 6 years
During the press conference Powell did not go so far as to declare mission accomplished but implied that the increases are probably over. He also has rising openings in Asia and Europe. Today the ECB and Tim Board. Cucinelli on the shields
In his first official appearance as Governor at the 60th anniversary of Iccrea, Fabio Panetta underlines that interest rates are already at a level "sufficient to bring inflation back in line with the 2% objective" and "useless damage" must be avoided For…
Inflation is slowing down somewhat but rates, if kept high for some time to come, will be able to push it towards the 2% target always indicated by the ECB - Two-speed stock exchanges
In his podcast "On the 4th floor" the Kairos strategist, Alessandro Fugnoli, advises to "stay invested and wait for the course of monetary normalization to complete its course" but be ready to grasp the news
The prospect of higher and longer rates in the US has sent European stock markets into the red. Cost of money unchanged also for England and Switzerland, rising in Sweden - Oil companies down in Milan, good...
After Jackson Hole and while waiting for the new meeting of the Fed and the ECB, Andrea Terzi (Cattolica) and Creel (Sciences Po) intervene on the next moves of the central banks
