In the latest economic bulletin, Bank of Italy estimates inflation at 1,3% in 2024, loans to businesses intended for investments are decreasing, while in the private sector high profit margins absorb the recovery in wages
According to Via Nazionale, the service and construction sectors in particular improved in the first quarter, while sales abroad recovered. Second quarter seen further growth
In the middle of the session the Ftse Mib reached 34.770 points. De Felice (Intesa): "Growth will accelerate already in the second quarter, with 3 rate cuts from the ECB by the end of the year". On Wall Street, eyes on Boeing
The Italian Public Accounts Observatory of the Catholic University, directed by Giampaolo Galli, analyzes the effects of the 110% Superbonus, taking into account the enormous extra deficit caused and the recessive effects on the economy resulting from the abolition of the benefit
The inflation estimate for 2024 goes from 2,7% to 2,3%. Lagarde on rate cuts: "We will know more in April and much more in June." Stock markets up, government bonds down
THE CANCELS OF THE ECONOMY OF FEBRUARY 2024 – The Red Sea risks widening conflicts: does it also pose risks for inflation? Why hasn't the rise in rates slowed down economies too much? How will the ECB react to Eurozone weakness and…
Tomorrow on FIRSTonline the Lancette dell'economia, the historic column by Fabrizio Galimberti and Luca Paolazzi, will answer the main questions on the near future of the Italian, European, American and Chinese economy
For 2023 growth drops to +0,6% but accelerates slightly this year%. "Forecasts worsened due to the deterioration of the international context"
With a critical article in the Manifesto, the Bari economist Gianfranco Viesti encourages the Democratic Party to take up the challenge of differentiated autonomy to fight a battle for the reconstruction of Southern Italy which has the fight against inequalities at its centre. But without a policy…
Volatility could come from geopolitical tensions. Perissinotto: "The capitalization of interests will be the driver of performance"
In focusing on the budget strategies of member countries, the Parliamentary Budget Office underlines that Italian debt remains the second highest in Europe after Greece
Speaking to the ABI executive, the governor of the Bank of Italy admitted that "we are in a phase of cyclical slowdown". In 2023 growth at +0,6-0,7%. "Banks in a positive phase" but beware of the risks
THE CLOCKS OF THE ECONOMY OF JANUARY 2024 – What are the geopolitical risks that threaten a year of modest growth? What factors will anticipate or delay the decline in rates? Is the soft landing of the American economy confirmed? What is behind the stability of employment and…
THE CLOCKS OF THE ECONOMY OF DECEMBER 2023 – What are the markets' reasons and the central banks' reasons for the decline in rates? Is the US economy headed for a soft landing? What weapons does China have to support the economy? Why the…
Svimez Report 2023 - In 2023 the South grew by 0,4%, compared to +0,8% in the Centre-North - Employment rises, but also precariousness and poverty - Risk of "unsustainable fragmentation" from differentiated autonomy
Italy passes the tests of the rating agencies. Even the fearsome Moody's confirms the Baa3 rating and improves the outlook for our country's economy
The first agreements between Biden and Xi encourage the markets but the economic scenarios are not exciting
Artificial Intelligence can be very useful for reducing the growth gap between Europe and the USA but it cannot work miracles - For a real turning point it is essential to train human capital and imagine a new industrial policy
Did the markets celebrate the Fed's victory over inflation in early November? But is it really like that? And what will the effects be on rates, on growth, on the stock markets? Fabrizio Galimberti and Luca Paolazzi will explain it tomorrow on FIRSTonline in the famous…
Panetta is considered a right-wing Draghi: his technical competence is beyond question, but to become a good Governor he will have to demonstrate independence from political power, especially on 3 points. Will he make it?
There is no default on the horizon for the Italian economy but the party is over, GDP is slowing down, inflation is not falling enough, confidence is falling and the debt burden is becoming more cumbersome
Growth forecasts slow down, but this does not change the "judgment" on the country's ability to manage its debt towards the market
THE CANCELS OF THE ECONOMY OF OCTOBER 2023 – What effects will the Hamas attack on Israel and the Israeli reaction have on the economy? Is this another 'black swan'? “High rates and for a longer time” is the new mantra of the markets: is it justified?…
In its October Economic Bulletin, our Central Bank reports a general slowdown in the economy, including Italy - Inflation is also falling but not enough
Growth or recession, inflation, rates, currencies, stock markets, but what effect will the new conflict between Israel and Hamas have on economic affairs? The 14th edition of the Lancette dell'Economia will reveal it on Saturday 50 October on FIRSTonline
With a letter sent to the Mef, the Parliamentary Budget Office validated the macroeconomic forecasts contained in the Nadef, but warned: "Uncertain estimates, downside risks prevail"
GDP growth at 0,8% and deficit over 4%: these are the macro-sizes that will inspire the Nadef to be examined by the Council of Ministers this afternoon. In essence: less growth and more deficit - To obtain EU approval on the extra trade deficit…
The President of the Mario Negri Institute explains what are the scientific reasons that make cultivated meat appreciated and hopes that the Government will reconsider by dropping its bans
Domestic demand is weighing on GDP in the second quarter, with all the main aggregates decreasing
Precisely on the eve of the central bankers' summit in Jackson Hole, the report by two economists, Anna Wong and Eliza Winge, highlights how in a single summer the triumphal tours of Beyoncé and Taylor Swift and the boom…
"In the second quarter, the judgments of companies on the general economic situation remain unfavorable overall", reads the Bank of Italy survey. Inflation at 5,8% in 12 months, selling prices on the rise
According to the Prometeia 2023 Forecast Report, Italian GDP is 2,5% higher than the pre-Covid one. The conditions and obstacles for growth
Nine Italian regions are placed in the third band, eight in the fourth and four in the last band, a sort of Dantesque group. This is the verdict of the RAI (Regional Attractivness Index) elaborated by the Nord Est Foundation on the basis of 26 parameters grouped into…
Lagarde: "Have we finished the journey? No, inflation is too high for too long" - The stop from July on reinvestments of securities has been confirmed - Stock markets weak, the euro rises
The hands of the economy in June 2023 - The Italian economy is growing more - or slowing down less - than in the Eurozone: what factors explain this performance? And what other stumbling blocks lie in wait for the world economy? Why China's Rebound Not…
A joint commitment between the Government and the social partners against inflation and the acceleration of investments and reforms for the full implementation of the PNRR: these are the recommendations of Governor Ignazio Visco in his latest Final Considerations in the Bank of Italy
After the controversy over the delays, the Minister for European Affairs Raffaele Fitto intervenes in Parliament: "The government's goal is to give the country full implementation of the Plan".
Apple's recent decision to move iPhone production from China to India is a sign of Delhi's growing ability to attract foreign investment in an economy that will become the third largest in the world by 2027
The Draghi government leaves a rich legacy, with rapidly recovering public finances, strong exports, faster recovery than other countries. But above all with a method made of cohesion, industrial policy, screwdriver work, support for demand and businesses. It is convenient…
After +3,2% in 2022, next year will close for Italy with a 0,3% drop in GDP. The USA and China are slowing down, -3,4% in 2022 for Russia. According to the IMF, the "energy shock is not transitory"
INTERVIEW WITH GIAMPAOLO GALLI, economist and co-author of the book on "Economic growth and meritocracy" - "One cannot fail to notice the contradiction of those who, like FdI, asked for less powers for Europe during the electoral campaign and are now calling for the intervention of the …
We publish the introduction of the book "Italy and the thread of growth" by Luca Paolazzi, published by Marsilio. Resuming the path of development is possible but there are many challenges to face: here are the ones
THE HANDS OF THE ECONOMY OF SEPTEMBER 2022 - Are the difficulties of reading the economy dissipating? Yes, in the sense that the recession really comes. Can it be mitigated? With what policies? How serious is the gas problem? The (relative) weakness of…
Stefano Micossi leaves the management of Assonime after 23 years. His speech, given at the Luiss conference in his honor, clearly highlights the unsolved problems that are blocking the growth of the Italian economy and that the political forces…
According to the North-East Foundation, in twenty years the Italian GDP per capita has fallen from 22% above the European average to 6% below - Slow growth is the problem holding the country back: here is the ranking of the region's GDP per capita For…
Furthermore, according to President Cavallari, thanks to tax revenues there is an improvement in public finance balances - As for the Aid decree, "the measures are temporary"
Larger companies are better able to satisfy the demand for professional growth of young talents but especially in the North of the country they are few even if something is changing in the North East
On FIRSTonline on Saturday 11 June, the monthly analysis of short-term scenarios curated by Fabrizio Galimberti and Luca Paolazzi returns. Inflation, recession, rates, stock exchanges, currencies: what's going on?
During the assembly of Unindustria Lazio, concerns emerged about the stability of the economy, but also about the opportunities ahead for Rome and the Region
THE HANDS OF THE ECONOMY OF MARCH 2022 - The war in Ukraine is rekindling inflation and hurting the recovery: what scenarios for the world economy? Which countries are most exposed? Will the commodity surge impact the price/wage spiral? How are they going to react…
Russia's attack on Ukraine causes European equities to lose appeal and Goldman Sachs revises its 2022 targets downwards with a deterioration in the growth and inflation mix
According to the Prometeia-Intesa report on industrial sectors, the record recovery of 2021 weakened in the last part of the year. 2022 growing but beware of geopolitical and energy risks
In March, with new macro projections, new assessments on rates - Inflation high for longer than expected, but down during the year
After the interlude, the Government must fully take control of the implementation of the PNRR and accelerate if it wants to achieve the objectives agreed with Europe
Where is the economy really going in Italy and in the world? And where should you invest your savings these days? The hands of the economy by Fabrizio Galimberti and Luca Paolazzi respond on this and more on Saturday 11 December on FIRSTonline
The new plan approved by the Board commits direct resources for 65 billion - Identified 4 priority areas and envisaged a new logic in the management of shareholdings - President Gorno Tempini: "Cdp is called to do its part to…
From China to the USA to Europe, the medium-term forecasts on the economy are less enthusiastic than the rebound this year and next year and bring the need to build a new development model that tackles the problems back on the agenda …
The markets fear a return to the conditions that characterized the XNUMXs, but according to Kairos' strategist these are unfounded fears: here's why
During his speech on the Nadef, the premier announced the arrival of a provision on safety in the workplace and the appointment with the first control room on the Pnrr - On October 12, the G20 on Afghanistan - Land registry: "No taxes on first homes "…
The council of ministers approved the update note of the Def - 2021 GDP at 6%, deficit at 9,4%, 18 billion a year of margin for the next 3 years - Irpef reform and social safety nets on the way...
In 2021, GDP will grow by 5,9%, but reforms and investments are needed for structural growth - No to the renewal of the 100 quota - Digital literacy in Italy below the EU average
The data for the second quarter certify the better-than-estimated GDP rebound. The economic recovery in Paris will continue at +5,3% also in 2022. The government's economic policy is focusing on a recovery plan on the supply side…
The final data for the second quarter confirm GDP growth of 2,7% compared to the previous quarter and of 17,3% compared to July 2020 - Industry and services are on the rise
Research carried out by Cdp, the Celf study center and the Milan Polytechnic underlines how the use of minibonds and basket bonds as alternative financing instruments can help SMEs find liquidity and strengthen the capital structure.
Innovation, complementary technologies and human capital are the foundations on which to build a post-Covid recovery that is sustainable for both the environment and the social fabric - The results of 3 international conferences
The Bull is celebrating in the West but not in Beijing where Xi Jinping has decided to slow down an excessively unbalanced development on the debt front. A few days before the celebrations for the centenary of the Communist Party of China, what is changing?
Moscow will greatly reduce fiscal stimulus this year, prioritizing maintaining fiscal buffers as a safeguard against external shocks. To combat counterfeiting, by 2024 a single national marking and traceability system will cover…
According to Istat, in the first quarter, GDP fell by 0,4% on a quarterly basis but Confindustria: "Robust recovery in the third quarter" - Ref: "In 2021, GDP will rise by 4,4% thanks to vaccines". Reached the target of 500.000 doses administered…
A first easing of restrictions could come after Easter, towards normality in May and June - Sharp drop in GDP in the first quarter, recovery in the second and acceleration in the third and fourth
What effect is the swing between anti-Covid closures and reopenings having on the economy? And is inflation waking up or is it just a paper tiger? But why are long-term rates rising? All this and more on Fabrizio Galimberti's Lancette dell'Economia and…
According to Prometeia, Italian GDP will rise by 1,2% in 2023 thanks to EU aid and the spread will remain stable with ECB measures, but Italy will not be able to grow without structural reforms
Intervention by the governor of Bank of Italy: "GDP will not return to pre-Covid levels before the second half of 2023" . We need to make up for the serious digital delay and the undersizing of businesses. Next Generation Eu is an opportunity not to be missed to come back…
The plans launched with phase II are expected to stimulate the economy in the two-year period 2021-22 by +2,4% in France, +2% in Germany and +0,7% in Italy. Italian imports should increase by 0,7% (12 billion) and exports by 0,8% (13 billion):…
The over 200 billion that Europe is ready to make available to Italy are not a gift from heaven to be squandered but have the very specific objective of creating permanent and sustainable growth and above all require institutional reforms and investments in…
INTERVIEW WITH LORENZO CODOGNO, economist, visiting professor at the London School of Economics and former general manager of the Treasury - "Supporting growth is decisive for making public debt sustainable and the use of European funds, including the Mes, will be fundamental"
"In praise of happy growth - Against ecological fundamentalism", published by Marsilio, is the title of the new book by Chicco Testa, which crushes the many clichés of an entirely ideological environmentalism and against scientific progress, which it does not defend at all…
According to Prometeia's forecasts, in 2020 GDP will drop by 10,1%, while the deficit/GDP ratio will jump to 11% - "Worst recession ever recorded in times of peace, only in 2025 will GDP be able to return to pre-Covid levels "
The reissue of the book by Pierluigi Ciocca, former Deputy General Manager of the Bank of Italy, "Rich forever? Economic history of Italy from 1796 to 2020", once again questions the real reasons why Italy is no longer growing and puts highlights the…
Only three variables could cause stock prices to fall: more inflation, less growth and more uncertainty - But it is not a probable scenario for the year that is upon us - This is why investing in the stock market remains the preferable option in these…
Even Ray Dalio, the founder of the largest hedge fund in the world, raises the alarm about inequality but there is no unity of purpose on what to do - The lesson of the historian Scheidel al Mulino - If the enormous difference in level is not remedied…
According to the Althesys report on behalf of the Birra Moretti Foundation, the shared value of the Italian beer supply chain has grown by 17% in three years
In his new book "Società Signorile di Massa" the sociologist Luca Ricolfi proposes a reading of Italy today that is completely different from the current one - He claims that inequalities have not increased and that today there are many people who, instead of committing…
The European Parliament gives the green light to the new Commission, which takes office on December XNUMXst - The new president wants to give more time and space for investments, complete the banking union and change the approach to migrants - A thousand billion for the New…
Congiuntura Ref explains in its latest report how and why the ECB's actions alone are no longer enough to support growth - Public investments are needed - How to implement them? Among the hypotheses in the field is the golden rule
Boston Consulting Group research “The Italian Comeback Kids. Lessons from successful turnaround” quantifies in just 32 the large Italian companies that have started running again after two years of declining Ebitda.
Palazzo Madama gives the green light to the provision, in which the Government had placed its trust, with 158 votes in favour, 104 against and 15 abstentions - Conte: "Let's relaunch the economy" - The Democratic Party: "The provision demonstrates the lack of thought of the …
From Salva Roma to the many tax news on Ires, Imu, Inail, ecobonus and scrapping folders: here are the news coming with the summer maxi-provision on which the Chamber of the Chamber has given the green light to trust
The vote in the Chamber of the Chamber of the provision on which the government has already announced its confidence has been postponed. Back to committee for changes after the blitz on development funds. The League gets the go-ahead for enhanced autonomies. But it opens…
Faced with Salvini's attacks on Europe, the prime minister says he wants growth but the results of his government speak for themselves: higher spread, investment freeze, consumption stagnation - Assonime's 3 NO's
Sharp drop in industrial production (-1,9% in April) prompted Bundesbank to sharply cut 2019 GDP estimates - German locomotive slows
Trade is under strong pressure due to the escalation of tariffs, the slowdown in Chinese GDP and the volatility of oil - Insolvencies (+2%) and corporate debt will continue to grow, while Made in Italy exports are holding up for now
On a trend basis, the GDP in the first quarter fell by 0,1%, putting an end to 6 years of positive changes - On a monthly basis, growth was +0,1% - Stable inflation
In the monthly Bulletin, the Central Bank confirms the slowdown in the economy linked to the drop in foreign demand. But the wage boost can support consumption in the medium term
Compensation will be triggered automatically in 90% of cases - Simplified arbitration is envisaged for the remaining 10% - Here are the limits and requirements to remember
The government's deficit-financed and no-growth redistributive policy resembles a cake without yeast that does not increase confidence and exacerbates Italy's economic problems
The number one of the Commission met Prime Minister Conte this morning, who announced the arrival of a "growth decree within this week" - The Luxembourger added: ""There is great love between Italy and Brussels, we must tell all ministers…
In 2018, the Italian economy grew by 0,9%, 0,1% less than previous estimates and a marked slowdown compared to 2017- Public debt rises to 132,1% of GDP, deficit down to 2,1. XNUMX% - The tax burden is stable
The association that brings together joint-stock companies calls for the adoption of "economic policies that are more attentive to growth and capable of curbing the current recession" by overcoming the uncertainties of budgetary policy and defending the independence of the central bank
In the press conference at the end of the year, the prime minister bets on "robust growth" in 2019 despite the adverse opinion of all international organizations - "We are not the government of lobbies and economic committees" - And he does not rule out a…
The proliferation of new digital products and the advance of innovation should turbocharge global economic efficiency, yet total productivity still remains weak, especially in Italy. Here are the reasons
