The worst may perhaps be behind us. The conditional is a must given the partial unpredictability relating to the evolution of the pandemic, but the acceleration of the vaccination campaign, which has reached the target of 500.000 vaccinations per day, could finally help accelerate the recovery we have been waiting for a year. This is foreseen by Ref Ricerche and Confindustria, which have released the estimates for 2021.
FIRST QUARTER GDP
In the meantime, the preliminary estimates for the first three months of the current year have also arrived, when according to Istat, GDP decreased by 0,4% compared to the previous quarter and by 1,4% in trend terms. “In the first quarter of 2021, the intensity of the trend decline in GDP is reduced, going from 6,6% in the previous quarter to 1,4%”, comments the National Institute of Statistics. The new contraction, "of a smaller extent" than that recorded in the fourth quarter of 2020, "is affected, in particular for the tertiary sector, by the economic effects of the measures adopted to combat the health emergency", concludes Istat which has the quarterly data on employment was also released today (-254 thousand employed compared to the previous quarter).
CONFINDUSTRIA FORECASTS
"The Italian economy sees a recovery from the crisis, in line with Europe", found the study center of Confindustria in its monthly analysis "congiuntura flash".
According to CSC experts, GDP is "closer to a rebound". “In Italy, the first easing of the anti-Covid restrictions began in April – they explain – This will lead to a small positive sign in GDP in the 2nd quarter, after the slight contraction in the 1st (-0,4%). The scenario is confirmed in which a strong rebound will take place in the 3rd quarter, thanks to the increase in vaccinations; however, with regard to their pace, which has accelerated, downside risks remain”. We recall that just yesterday, April 29, Italy almost reached the target of 500 thousand daily administrations, possible thanks to the efforts of the Regions, but also to the increase in deliveries recorded in recent weeks.
In the flash situation of the Confindustria Study Center there is also a reference to the Recovery Plan which, after the definitive go-ahead from Parliament and the Cabinet, will be delivered the same day to the European Commission. "From the impressive NG-EU plan, at the starting point, recovery aid will arrive as early as the second half of 2021", predict the experts according to which our country will therefore benefit from the first 25 billion arriving by the summer.
REF SEARCHES ESTIMATES
On an annual level, the Italian GDP could grow by 4,4% this year and by 4,3% in 2022. These are the forecasts of the Ref Economic Studies Center, according to which the pre-crisis levels will be recovered at the end of next year. “If the vaccines will also have the desired efficacy against the variants of the virus, the impacts on the economy will also be significant”, explains Ref. “Consequently, the economic scenario incorporates the progressive reopening of many activities and a recovery of production levels at starting from the second half of the year”.
Growth, Ref predicts, will be driven by household consumption and, in particular, by the increase in those expenses that have been prevented in recent months due to anti-pandemic restrictions. And therefore hotels, travel, restaurants and shows. The reduction of these expenses has led Italian families to increase their savings: a good 100 billion more since the pandemic began.
Going forward with the forecasts, in 2021 the deficit/GDP ratio is estimated at 10,2%, but it will drop to 4,5% in 2022, while the debt/GDP is assumed to be 158,3% in 2021 and then drop slightly to 154,2% next year.
THE GDP OF THE EUROZONE
Preliminary estimates of the first quarter GDP of the main Eurozone countries were also released today. To stand out in the negative is the Germany, down 1,7% compared to the fourth quarter of 2020. The Portugal, where the Gross Domestic Product recorded a decrease of 3,3% compared to the previous quarter and of 5,4% year on year.
In Spain instead the quarterly decline was half a percentage point, but the government expects a strong rebound in growth for 2021, to 6,5%, after a 10,8% drop in GDP in 2020 due to the pandemic, one of the biggest declines among developed countries.
Shyly grow back there France, where in the first three months of 2021 GDP increased by 0,4%, after the 1,4% contraction recorded in the fourth quarter of 2020. The figure is better than the expectations of analysts who had forecast a stagnant GDP.
Overall, in January-February-March, the Gross Domestic Product fell by 0,6% in theEurozone and in 'Ue by 0,4%, according to Eurostat estimates. In the fourth quarter of 2020, the drop was 0,7% in the Eurozone and 0,5% in the EU, after the rebound in the third. On a trend basis, seasonally adjusted GDP data show a drop of 1,8% in the Eurozone and 1,7% in the EU, after -4,9% and -4,6% respectively in the previous quarter.
