Morale under the heels this morning Sant'Elpidio a Mare, headquarters of Tod's, "sentenced" to remain listed on the Stock Exchange. As expected, the flop of the offer, which raised only 12,49% of the capital, was not taken well by the market. The Della Valles have remained well below the threshold of 90% of the capital: the share held by the family plus the 10% controlled by Lvmh (Bernard Arnault, on the strength of a call, did not participate in the takeover bid) does not reach the 87%. And so the value of the stock, which had fallen below the offer price (40 euros) only on Tuesday, fell this morning to around 32 euros, more or less to the levels of early summer before theannouncement of the voluntary takeover bid.
A dip of -17% abundant which plunges the value of Tod's to very low levels: just over one billion in capitalization for all four brands of the brand: Roger Vivier, Hogan and Fay as well as the house label. Too little: for the Tabor fund, the company from the Marches, even before a restructuring, is worth almost double: at least 70 euros per share. Just to make a comparison, a year ago Exor has spent more than 500 million for only 24% of Louboutin, or more than two billion euros. Is it possible that the competing brand, i.e. Roger Vivier, one of the brands that will be the object of the "revolution" that Diego Della Valle promises to continue, is offered almost free of charge?
Opa Tod's: Della Valle turns around and prepares the restructuring
In a sense, the failure of the offer can be interpreted as a gesture of trust on the prospects of the Marche group. The partners, mostly investment funds, not just speculative ones, have decided that it is worth supporting the family's projects. And so, in the face of a large group of sellers who until the end hoped for a relaunch of the family, there are investors who have decided to hold on. Diego Della Valle who, according to well-informed people, had recently had second thoughts about leaving the Stock Exchange, takes note of it.
In reality, the possibility of proceeding with the delisting by means of a merger with the vehicle used for the takeover bid was not excluded in theory. But this is not the path chosen by the Della Valles: the shares brought in acceptance of the offer will be returned and re-entered into the availability of their respective owners, by tonight, as announced by the group. A part of these securities will be dumped on the markets, another will remain in the hands of investors ready to participate in one profound restructuring which aims to separate the four brands of the group.
Opa Tod's: the Fondi revolt
In reality, for a company active on the global market, with a strong (and necessary) image policy, the flop of the operation represents a wound of no small importance. From the outset, financial operators rebelled against the prospect of selling the shares at the same price paid in the year XNUMX at the time of the company's IPO. Of course, unlike other darlings of the market (see Brunello Cucinelli) he discounted on the Stock Exchange a certain diffidence towards the warrior entrepreneur who in the past did not hesitate to engage in battle on other fronts (see RCS). And the image operation with Chiara Ferragni didn't help that much. The influencer, who entered the board as an independent, is now part of the patrol expressed by the majority because as an independent she could not work for the group's brands. Ferragni herself, however, did not participate in the board meeting which approved the offer price.
Tod's: towards the division of brands
In short, despite his reluctance, Diego Della Valle will have to share the fruits of the group's restructuring with the market, which will pass from the separation of the brands and their subsequent valorisation. A promising business even if, the entrepreneur had anticipated at the time of presenting the takeover bid, the division of brands in the short term it could lead to higher costs and lower profitability. A risk that some funds, at least the value ones, seem ready to take. And don Diego, the great host of the Colosseum, will descend into the arena with them.
