The Italy remains in the grip of the African heat. The third heat wave of summer 2026 continues to strengthen and the latest weather forecast updates push the possible end of the hot phase further forward: the long-awaited drop in temperature, initially scheduled for July 20, may arrive only after July 23.
A long period of intense heat has been shaping the Italian climate for weeks. Since May 24th, temperatures have remained steadily above the seasonal average, with anomalies that at times reached exceptional levels, up to 8-9 degrees above normal.
According to experts, this situation confirms an increasingly evident trend in the 21st-century climate: periods of extreme heat that are more frequent, persistent, and intense than in the past. The hardest hit so far has been the Center-North, but the South is also experiencing significantly higher temperatures than historical averages.
An African anticyclone is moving over Italy: intense heat will continue until July 23.
The latest projections confirm the dominance of the African anticyclone over the Mediterranean and Italy. The third heat wave could therefore continue for several more days, with the most critical period expected between mid-July and the 23rd.
The scenario is reminiscent of the one already experienced during the previous hot phase between June 17th and July 1st, characterised by a long persistence of scorching air, high temperatures even during the night hours and conditions of marked physical discomfort.
Weekend weather forecast: thunderstorms in the North, intense heat in the Central and Southern regions
The weekend will be marked by an Italy divided between some unstable episodes in the North and a new phase of intense heat over the rest of the country. The subtropical anticyclone will continue to guarantee typically summery conditions, with high temperatures and maximum attention in the cities most exposed to the heat.
Florence will be among the locations with red dot due to the risk associated with high temperatures, while Rome, Perugia, Pescara e Turin will be affected by an orange alert level.
Saturday 11th July The North will experience a warm but more variable day, with scattered thunderstorms moving from west to east and increased cloud cover in the eastern regions, particularly in Friuli. Sunny and warm weather will dominate in Central Italy, with a few possible showers limited to mountainous areas. In the South, the weather will remain mostly stable, with clear skies and high temperatures, although isolated thunderstorms are possible along the Apennines.
Sunday July 12th The African anticyclone will remain dominant: sunnier conditions will return to the North, but severe weather will still be possible between Romagna and the mountainous areas. Central Italy will continue to experience intense heat, with some isolated episodes in the mountains, while the South will remain stable, with mostly sunny skies and temperatures above the seasonal average.
Heatwave peaks in mid-July: Sardinia nears 43 degrees, cities near 40 degrees
The most intense phase is expected in the second part of the week, when the African anticyclone will reach its maximum expansion over Italy.
Forecasts indicate temperatures reaching 40 degrees in Sardinia, with temperatures up to 43 degrees possible in the island's inland areas. Many Italian cities could also see temperatures approaching 38-39 degrees: among the most exposed areas are Florence, Terni, Bologna, Ferrara, Foggia, Mantova, Modena, Parma, Pavia e Piacenza.
The heat will also affect large urban centers: Rome and Milan could reach temperatures close to 37-38 degrees, causing severe heat stress for the population.
When will the heat end? A respite is possible after July 23rd.
A first chance for change comes from the end of the third ten days of JulyAccording to the latest forecast scenarios, the African anticyclone could gradually begin to move towards the Balkans, making way for a return to conditions closer to normal climatic conditions in Italy.
The extreme heat could therefore ease after July 23, although the atmospheric evolution will remain to be monitored in the coming days. Meanwhile, Italy will still have to face a phase characterized by above-average temperatures, intense heat, and a summer season increasingly marked by the frequency and duration of extreme events.
