According to a recent report by Atradius, theglobal economy must face new pressures resulting from the deterioration of the commercial context. Trade appears to be increasingly influenced by duties, export controls and considerations geopolitical rather than efficiency.
In this scenario, emerging Asia remains the main engine of global growth, supported by stronger external positions, deeper domestic markets and improved policy frameworks. However, if India, Thailand, Philippines e Vietnam are more exposed to debt and political uncertainty, China e Malaysia, thanks to strong domestic demand, credible policies and effective institutions, are best placed to withstand external shocks.
US-China reshape trade as Asia grows at different speeds
La rivalry between the United States and China It is redirecting trade flows through tariffs, export controls, rules of origin requirements, and supply chain scrutiny. Beijing remains central to the global manufacturing sector, particularly in high-tech, clean energy, and electronics. However, its strong exports also reflect weak domestic demand and fuel tensions over production overcapacity and subsidies. This benefits Vietnam , Malaysia e India, but investments increasingly depend on infrastructure, political stability, and regulatory compliance. Demand for artificial intelligence is supporting regional exports, but it also adds concentration risk.
At the same time, the United States offers a large market, while theXNUMX-XNUMX business days It provides access to more stringent regulations, bordering on exasperation. Overall, Atradius describes a more regionalized, regulated trade landscape, influenced by geopolitical considerations rather than economic efficiency.
In the two-year period 2026-27 theEmerging Asia is provided growing strongly, even if the economic trend is becoming increasingly uneven.
Vietnam and India lead, China and Malaysia focus on domestic demand
Il Vietnam is the country that records the better performance, with GDP growth driven by investment and electronics exports, although rising inflation and financial stability risks point to overheating pressures. India is also showing robust growth, supported by strong domestic demand, infrastructure spending, and investment, but faces major inflation challenges.
La Malaysia benefits from demand related to artificial intelligence, electronics exports and investments in data centers, although its prospects are increasingly tied to the global technology cycle. China It remains a key benchmark for growth, but foreign demand cannot continue to offset the weakness of household consumption and investment.
The Indonesia maintains stable growth, although the credibility of its policies is subject to some reservations. Thailand remains held back by weak domestic demand and high household indebtedness, while Philippines they face the most challenging near-term combination of high inflation and weak growth.
