The Stability law that arrives in the Council of Ministers tomorrow is worth more than expected: 30 billion euros, of which 11,5 billion recovered by raising the deficit-GDP 2014 from 2,2 to 2,9% (in any case below the European threshold of 3%) and 16 arriving from spending reviews. For this year alone, the cuts to public administration are worth 13,3 billion: five will come from the ministries, three from the Regions, 1,8 from the Municipalities and 3,5 from the Provinces.
The new package of measures was announced yesterday by Prime Minister Matteo Renzi in front of the Confindustria audience in Bergamo, with the clarification that the new maneuver will not contain "not even a penny of extra taxes": on the contrary, on the fiscal side we will see a cut from 18 billion, "the largest reduction ever attempted in Italy".
Here are the main measures listed by Renzi:
– Confirmation of the bonus from 80 € in the pay slip for those earning less than 1.500 euros per month. This intervention alone weighs 10 billion euros.
– Abolition of the labor component of theIRAP, “a tax that drives you crazy”. The cost is 6,5 billion.
– Three years without paying contributions on new ones permanent contracts (1,5 billion).
– The agreement with the banks for theoptional advance of the severance indemnity in paycheck.
– The foundations will be laid for it to exist from 2015 one municipal tax for which the mayors will assume "responsibility". So goodbye to the distinction between Tasi e IMU. However, it is not clear whether the measure will also involve the Tari.
– One billion for investments in stability pact for local authorities, with a “77% improvement”.
- School: one billion for teachers and extraordinary maintenance interventions.
- New universal unemployment benefit, for now financed with 1,5 billion.
- The families many will receive aid of around 500 million, probably with child allowances or personal income tax deductions.
– Possible, but still very uncertain, the restoration of the generalized deduction on the tax on the house in Imu 2012 style, or 200 euros for everyone with the addition of 50 euros per child.
To pool the necessary resources, the government could also work on other fronts. An intervention on municipal companies and a cut to healthcare outside the package managed by the regions is not excluded. Another 1,2 billion should arrive from the cut of some tax deductions, while another billion and a half is expected from the increase in taxes on slot machines.
THE JUDGMENT OF BRUSSELS
In the eyes of the European Commission, called upon to evaluate all the maneuvers of the member countries of the Union, the problem is that the new Italian stability law implies a two-year slippage of the balanced budget, initially planned for 2015 and now postponed to 2017.
The Secretary of the Treasury, Pier Carlo Padoanhas set aside a special reserve of 2,5 billion as a precaution in the event of disputes from Brussels. On the other hand, yesterday the Parliamentary Budget Office, a body envisaged by the Fiscal compact, approved the Economic and Financial Document, acknowledging that the postponement of the balance is justified by "exceptional circumstances".
Padoan assured that “there is no negotiation with Brussels” on budget balances: “We are in an absolutely normal process. The Commission will immediately receive, upon approval by the Council of Ministers, the numbers of the Stability law and then we will start a normal dialogue which will end quickly, after Brussels has examined not only the numbers, but also the logic in which this program is part ”.
An opening came yesterday evening from the president of the Eurogroup, Jeroen Dijsselbloem: “In assessing the medium-term objective, i.e. a balanced budget – said the Dutchman – account must be taken of the structural reforms and their effect on the budgets, but on condition that they have been preliminarily approved by the national parliaments, because this it makes them believable, ensuring they're not just ads."
Much less conciliatory Jyrki katainen, current EU commissioner for economic affairs and future vice-president of the Commission, a position that will give him veto power over the decisions of the commissioners dealing with economic matters. “There are no official negotiations with Italy but we have received information, especially on structural reforms – said the Finnish hawk, standard bearer of rigor who has always been close to Angela Merkel -. The Italian authorities informed us what they intend to do, it was very helpful. Once we have the data that the states give us, we will look at the debt and the deficit and compare the commitments with what they have done, it is a purely arithmetic exercise".
