China is growing again. The PMI data this morning signal the first rise in business activity for six months now. The PMI index has risen above 50. The news has given the Bull new impetus. And so Tokyo opened the week with a rise of 0,4%, reaching a 5-month high during the session and then slowing down. The Asia Pacific index rises by 0,7%, Hong Kong +0,23%.
Crude oil still rose (115,16 Brent) on the wave of news from Iraq where the ISIL offensive is intensifying. But the winds of war in Iraq, as well as the crisis in Ukraine, are not holding back the markets much: the injection of confidence in the markets carried out by the Federal Reserve has accentuated, just a few days after the mid-year turning point, the optimism .
And so:
– The Vix (or fear) index, which measures market volatility, slipped in Chicago to its lowest level since February 2007.
– The MSCI All Country World Index, based on a basket of blue chips from around the globe, is at an all-time high. The increase in value over the past five days was $380 billion.
– US Stock Exchanges are up: in the week Dow Junes +1,3%, S&P +1,1%, Nasdaq +1,4%.
– The Eurostoxx 600 also hit a high +0,3% , up for the tenth consecutive week.
– Increase risk appetite in emerging markets; Kenya has Kenya (single B rating) issued 2 billion dollars over the week at 5 and 10 years with coupons of 5.875% and 6.875% respectively, Cyprus (Caa3/B /B-) has a 5-year security in euro around at 5% yield. And Iraq, while the armored cars of Al Qaeda are approaching Baghdad, has placed a medium-term bond at 7,2%.
– Gold +3,3% over $1300 an ounce and silver +5,1% over $20.
In this context, the setback of Piazza Affari -0,7% during the week, conditioned by the technical maturities of futures and options, is apparently surprising: since the beginning of the year, the gain is 16,1%. The yield on 10-year BTPs rose to 2,94% (from 2,91%), with a spread at 160. The Treasury will offer Ctz and Btpei between 25 and 2,5 billion at the June 3,5 auction. Today the amount of Bots to be auctioned on June 26th will be communicated. Among the appointments of the week we note the shower of PMI indices (the one that measures the confidence of company purchasing managers) between the Eurozone and Asia; home sales in the US; consumption in Italy, the United States and Germany.
Today rain of coupons on Piazza Affari. Separate the dividend:
A2A €0,033;
Acea €0,17 for the balance (down payment €0,25 distributed on 23 December 2013)
Enel 0,13 euros
Exor €0,3350
Iren 0,0523 euros
ordinary Italmobiliare €0,15 and savings €0,255191
McLink 0,055 euros
Moncler €0,10
BANKS. BPER INCREASE UNDERWAY, FINAL SPRINT FOR MPS
This morning one of the last operations on the capital of Italian banks starts; Banca Popolare dell'Emilia-Romagna (-4,4% on Friday) is offering 7 new ordinary bonds for every 16 already held at a price of 5,14 euros per security, 3 of which at nominal value and the remaining 2,14 as premium. Bper proposes to the shareholders a much less dilutive operation than those in progress at MPS and Carige: 750 million requested against a capitalization of 2,6 billion. The discount on the Terp (the theoretical price after detachment of the right) is around 26,5% against 35,5 for Mps and 40% for Carige.
The rest of the industry is under pressure. On Friday, the last day of trading for the option rights to be exercised by 27 June, Banca Monte Paschi adjusted to parity with the rights after strong fluctuations: after spending a good part of the session, the stock fell to 1,874 euro, in the final stage it made a leap which led it to close at 2,184, up by 4,6%. The option right ended the session at €20,87, up 9,2%. According to Equita's analysis, whoever buys MontePaschi at 1,46 euros per share pays 0,77 times the Tangible equity (shareholders' equity excluding goodwill) and can aim for an increase in the share of up to once the Tangible equity. The target price set by the broker is 1,9 euros and the judgment is Buy.
Full success for the capital increase of Credito Valtellinese subscribed at 99,62%, for an amount of 398,5 million. The market also punished the delays in the sale of the bad banks of Banco Popolare -2,37% and Unicredit -2,43%. The CEO of Prelios, Sergio Iasi, feared on Friday the postponement of the offers for Release and Uccmb, the companies that manage the problematic loans of the two groups. Banco Popolare has admitted that the initial roadmap will suffer some delays. The deadline for binding offers to mid-July is also looming for Uccmb.
TV RIGHTS, FAVORITE MEDIASET, SKY SCREAMS PENALTY
Crucial day for Mediaset (-2,2% on Friday). Today, in fact, the football league has been assigning the rights for Serie A football since 2015. Sky, beaten by the Alfa Romeo on the rights for the Champions League, presented the highest offer both for the satellite (355 million for the best 8 teams ) and for digital terrestrial (430 million) while Mediaset offers more for package D (the other 12 teams exclusively). In economic terms, therefore, Sky prevails but the League seems intent on not assigning the two most valuable lots to the same bidder.
The solution that Infront will propose to the companies will therefore be to assign the digital terrestrial rights to Sky which offered 422 million and the satellite to Mediaset (350 million), a solution that will pave the way for Murdoch's appeals in every venue. Meanwhile, Sky itself has signed an agreement with Telecom Media Broadcasting for the use of five channels to possibly be used for football. The news pushed L'Espresso up +1,3% on Friday: in April TI Media and L'Espresso signed an agreement for the integration between the subsidiaries Telecom Italia Media Broadcasting and Rete A, respectively owners of three and two multiplexes digital. Upon completion of the transfer, TI Media and L'Espresso will respectively hold 70% and 30% of the joint venture which already hosts the free-to-air channel Cielo (Sky). The war of frequencies (and football) did not go well for Urbano Cairo, editor of La 7 and president of Turin: Cairo Comunications lost 6,61%, burning the positive effect of the agreement with Ei Towers.
No less important for Mediaset is the Spanish match on Digital +. By July 4th. The Biscione will have to decide whether to adhere to Telefonica's tempting offer, which offers 355 million for 22% of the platform (which in any case will require investments of around one billion) or whether to relaunch. Delicate choice: on the one hand there is the prospect of a strong financial effort, on the other the risk of losing a unique industrial opportunity. Meanwhile, Telefonica surprised the market by cashing in with the sale of the Telecom Italia convertible -2,6%. The Spanish giant is proceeding along the path of integrating traditional services (less and less profitable) and the supply of content via pay TV. It is not clear whether in conflict or in agreement with the Mediaset group.
THE FRESHMAN STUDENTS ARE ARRIVING IN PIAZZA AFFARI
Among the topics to be mentioned are also the IPOs. Cerved will debut tomorrow in Piazza Affari after the IPO which saw good demand from abroad: out of 96 million shares, 89,6 (183,9 million of requests) have been assigned to foreign institutional investors.
On the third day of the roadshow, the Fineco IPO has already received enough applications to cover the entire amount offered at least once. This is what can be read in a note sent by one of the banks following the operation. Unicredit, which currently holds 100% of Fineco, will sell 30% of the subsidiary's capital, a share that could rise to 34,5% in the event full subscription of the greenshoe.
Meanwhile, Rottapharm, the pharmaceutical company controlled by Luca and Lucio Rovati, warms up the engines for the listing on the stock exchange, with the first meetings with analysts and the dissemination of studies on the company. Banca Imi, one of the bookrunners of the operation, gives the company an overall valuation of between 1,68 and 2,12 billion euro. The company aims to launch the offer in early July. The landing in Piazza Affari is expected in the middle of the month, after those of Fincantieri and Fineco.
Salini Impregilo has completed the placement of shares at 3,7 euro, achieving the objective of bringing the free float to 40,03% of the share capital. The transaction involved 44.740.000 newly issued shares, equal to 9,96% of the share capital, for a total value of 165,538 million euro, and the sale of 94 million shares held by Salini Costruttori, for a value of 347,8, 13,5 million. Furthermore, Goldman Sachs, Mediobanca and Banca IMI have exercised the overallotment option to purchase or subscribe for an additional 59,97 million shares. Following the operation, Salini Costruttori will hold 360% of the share capital and will be subject to a XNUMX-day lock-up.
THE NEW SALINI AT THE START, ONLY LUXURY IS WEAK
Brilliant Finmeccanica, +3,46% to 6,735 euros after the board gave the green light to the guidelines of the plan which provides for the merger by incorporation of the main subsidiaries (AW, Alenia Aermacchi, Oto Melara, Wass, Selex Es) into the holding and their transformation into divisions.
“As Renzi says, we will deal with it”. Sergio Marchionne, CEO of Fiat thus replied, during the Bocconi Alumni American conference in New York, to the criticisms of the secretary of the CGIL, Susanna Camusso, who defined the position taken by Fiat as "dangerous" with the blocking of overtime and the suspension of the transfer of 500 workers on layoffs from Mirafiori to Grugliasco. The CEO of FCA confirmed the listing on Wall Street "by October of this year" and reaffirmed his support for Prime Minister Matteo Renzi. “I like the attitude of him, the freshness of him. I support any plan that changes rules that are no longer competitive".
Luxottica closed up 3,5% after Bank of America raised its target price to 47 euros. But the slowdown in luxury continues. Since the beginning of the year, Brunello Cucinelli has fallen by 37%, Ferragamo by 25%, Tod's -22%. Yoox, the digital boutique whose share at the beginning of the year had reached a value of 35 euros fell below 20. Meanwhile Carlyle sold 7,13% of Moncler, -0,50% (-22% from beginning of 2014) by eliminating the stake at a price of 12,04 euros per share.
