In Europe, for the escalation of tensions in the Middle East, the major concerns are for the'gas price surge, even more than for those of the Petroleum, with attention to Qatar's LNG supplies shut down and a European gas stock levels below normal.
As the conflict in the Middle East widens with the Lebanon under Israeli fire, Trump He defended his willingness to act on Iran with a full-scale war by saying that the United States will “everything you need” to achieve its military objectives in Iran, continuing the attacks even for more than 4 weeks.
Meanwhile, an official of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards announced today that the Strait of Hormuz è closed to maritime traffic and that the country will open fire on any vessel attempting to pass through it. Added to this is the'interruption of LNG production di QatarEnergy, the world's third-largest producer, further reducing global supply.
Gas exceeds 60 euros (+40%), Oil above 82 dollars
The price response of oil and gas it could only be at the rise. Following yesterday's path, today too the same path runs. European gas price on the Amsterdam Stock ExchangeThis morning at the opening the price jumped to touch 59 € It then dropped to around 56 euros and rose again at midday to 62 euros. Yesterday, gas closed at 44,5 euros/MWh, an increase of 35%.
The price of the continues to run Petroleum. The Nymex crude Oil in March it was quoted at 75,30 dollars with an increase of 5.71%. Brent Crude It has surpassed the $80 level and is now at $82,10, up 5,61%, its highest level since January 2025,
A shift in gas outlook: from abundance to fears of scarcity. Fears of shutting off supplies in Qatar.
Until this weekend's attack, the narrative had consolidated that strong exports of liquefied natural gas by countries such as the United States and Qatar would have secured the supplies for all of 2026. In an instant the the situation has turned around and now that one narrative has now given way to the expectations of shipping delays and significantly higher prices.
Yesterday the Qatar, the third largest LNG exporter after the United States, has liquefied natural gas production stopped with the precautionary closure of oil and gas facilities across the Middle East following Iranian drone attacks on facilities in the vast complex of Ras LaffanThe complex houses Qatar's gas trains, massive processing units that cool natural gas until it becomes liquid for export by ship. Qatar's LNG production is equivalent to approximately 20% of the world's supply and plays a key role in balancing fuel demand in both the Asian and European markets.
According to analyst firm Kpler, LNG buyers in Asia account for more than 80% of shipments come from Qatarr. The China, the world's largest LNG importer in 2025, relied on Qatar for 29% of its LNG imports last year, while'India, The world's fourth-largest LNG buyer, it relied on Qatar for approximately 45% of its supplies. To fill any gaps resulting from closures, China, India, Japan and South Korea will likely increase interest in orders from other suppliers.
But Europe also has the problem of low gas supplies.
Although Europe secured only 7% of its LNG supplies from Qatar in 2025, according to analyst firm Kpler, the knock-on effects of a possible prolonged closure will likely have an impact on all trade flows, according to analysts. This is also happening in another unfavorable situation: Europe finds itself with a gas stock levels below normal, following a combination of new gas storage rules, above-normal winter temperatures and subdued economic activity, analysts note.
Major gas consumers and storage operators across Europe must decide quickly how to defend yourself from any risks of further gas exhaustion, while avoiding being overwhelmed by panic buying that could further increase global LNG prices. Europe has drastically reduced its historic dependence on Russian oil and gas since 2022, with Russia's invasion of Ukraine, precisely in favor of Liquefied Natural Gas, importing it mainly from the United States and Norway.
The problem is that, with gas stocks already at multi-year or record lows, many of Europe's largest gas consumers may have no choice but to increase purchases, even as gas costs continue to rise. Natural gas inventories in Germany, Europe's largest gas consumer, started March with just 27% capacity, compared to an average of 64% capacity for the same period of the year from 2023, LSEG data shows. Gas inventories in Netherlands home to Europe's main gas trading hub, they represent only about 10% of capacity, compared to an average of around 48% in early March.
L'Italy, that is the second largest gas consumer in Europe, currently has gas reserves of approximately 50% of capacity, a decidedly significant safety margin better than most Northern countries, but still below the average of 60% capacity at the beginning of March. Overall, European gas inventories in major markets are currently about 30% full, compared to around 54% at the beginning of March.
Concerns about inflation and GDP. A comparison between the US and Europe.
Europe is a net importer of oil and gas, while the United States, on the other hand, is a net exporter of oil and gas. In Europe, every increase in prices translates into a tapering growth andinflation comes knocking again. In the'import energy, inflation also matters and fragility. Goldman Sachs estimate that a +10% average oil and gas can subtract approximately 0,2% of GDP from the Eurozone over four quarters.
“With manufacturing having an impact on GDP in Germany and Italy, “The jump in gas prices is a direct blow to production costs,” observes eToro analyst Gabriel Debach. “It is inflation which could come back to bite just as the ECB is wondering about the next cuts."
And here comes the true European knot: thea transmission to final pricesIn 2022 and 2023, the shift from energy to consumer prices was almost double that of normal periods. When energy prices rise in a still fragile environment, the effect can be amplified, Debach says.
In the United States the dynamic is the opposite: they are net exporters of oil and gas and the rise in crude oil is also a internal income transferIn the United States, a $10 a barrel increase reduces growth by only about 0,1 percentage points, or even less than 0,05 if the shock is temporary.
Even in terms of inflation the difference is clearA 10% increase in oil adds about 28 basis points to thegeneral American inflation and only 4 basis points to the underlying, given Goldman Sachs. It's a visible boost, but not destabilizing if temporary. In Europe, the same average increase in energy prices can translate into an increase in inflation of between 0,15% and 0,3%. This puts monetary policy at a crossroads: protecting growth or defending price stability.
For the Federal Reserve A temporary shock can be absorbed. For the ECB, the balance is more delicate. The situation worries the ECB. Philip Lane, chief economist of the European Central Bank, told the Financial Times that a long war could exert a strong pressure on the rise on theinflation e reduce the growth rate in the euro area.
