In the last sixty years the phenomenon of globalization has recorded continuous progress. The sharp decline produced by the 2008-09 crisis was followed by an intense recovery in the following two years and a stabilization in more recent years. In 2013, however, the maximum recorded in 2007 has not yet been recovered.
In the cross-border dynamics observed in recent years, it is not only the areas of origin and arrival that change but also the content of the transactions. In the past, international trade has been dominated by flows of raw materials and labour-intensive production. In more recent years, on the other hand, the exchanges with the most intense growth are those with a high knowledge content.
Using McKinsey's definition, flows of this nature would amount to just under $13 trillion, about half of international trade in goods, services and financial investment. As far as the future is concerned, the indications are not always in agreement. It should be noted that the largest part of international exchanges still takes place in the narrower regional ambit, a circumstance which suggests a great deal of room for the progress of the globalization process.
On the other hand, however, protectionist measures have multiplied. The dynamism of international exchanges is inevitably affected by the "passing of the baton" between developed and emerging countries. Indeed, in advanced countries, the elasticity of imports with respect to economic growth is much higher than in emerging countries (2,5 times compared to 1,6 times). Up until the mid-90s, the globalization process was largely identified with the development of commercial exchange; in the following two decades, however, its profile was increasingly marked by the dynamics of financial flows.
According to BIS surveys, in mid-2014 international banking assets were close to $30 trillion. After growing approximately 50 times over thirty years and reaching an all-time high in March 2008 (approximately $35.500bn), the aggregate experienced a considerable decline lasting over five years which reduced its size by approximately 20%. ; in the last twelve months, however, a limited recovery has been observed (+6%).
Attachments: Focus no. 02-13 January 2015.pdf
