THE FEAR OF THE FED STRICT DROP THE PRICE LISTS. IN MILAN THE BUNDESBANK SHAKES THE BANKS
Has the autumn of price lists already begun? On the eve of the governors' meeting in Jackson Hole (Wyoming, land of bears) the race for safety suddenly restarted on the markets, with significant effects at all latitudes. In Asia, the belief that the Fed's monetary policy turnaround is a matter of weeks away is causing a massive exodus of funds from Asian markets. The result? The Tokyo Stock Exchange this morning lost just under 1,4%. The titles of the exporters most closely linked to turnover in Asia are down sharply: Daihatsu loses 4,5%. Hong Kong is worse -1,5%, shocked by the collapse of Everbright -23%, the financial proton of the blackout in derivatives.
But the real note of concern concerns the collapse of currencies such as the Indonesian ringitt (the Jakarta Stock Exchange -10% in four days) or the Thai bath, destined to follow the crisis of the Indian rupee. It is the result of the abrupt exodus from ETFs on emerging markets, which however does not spare even Australia, which is close to another rate cut.
Wall Street also retreats in the final, after a waiting session, in view of news on the Fed's monetary policy: Dow Jones -0,47%. S&P -0,59% loses even the Nasdaq -0,38% despite the purchases on Intel +3,2% and Apple +2,1%. The biggest discounts concern the banks: Citigroup down 1,4%, Morgan Stanley –1,7%, JP Morgan -1,8%. The European stock markets also slow down: London -0,5%, Paris -0,9%, Frankfurt -0,3%, Madrid -1,9%.
Braking, as usual, is much more robust for Southern European price lists. The Milan Stock Exchange, Europe's black jersey, closed the session in sharp declines: FtseMib index -2,4%. Madrid follows -1,9%. Piazza Affari fell back heavily after a rally that saw it gain 9,4% in the last month and 3% in the last week.
RECORD BUND AND BOND WAITING FOR THE FED MINUTE
First and foremost, the upward trend in real rates on the money market is at the origin of the decline: the yield on US ten-year bonds rose to its highest level in the last two years at 2,875%.
In Europe, the German 17-year yield is at a 7-month high. Unlike what happened in the last few sessions, the phenomenon also affected BTP rates. The spread between the Bund and the BTP widened by 237 basis points to 4,26 points: the BTP yields 8% (+1,88 basis points) and the Bund 1% (+XNUMX basis point).
Meanwhile, anticipation is growing for the governors' moves. Investors' attention is focused on anything that can provide indications on what the Fed will decide at the next meeting of the FOMC, the monetary policy committee, on 17-18 September. The first important indications will come tomorrow evening with the release of the minutes of the last meeting of the Fed, that of 30 and 31 August.
In Europe, meanwhile, the Bundesbank has already spoken: the low interest rate policy proclaimed by the ECB will have to take into account any surges in inflation. In summary, this is what the Buba bulletin claims: the recovery of growth beyond the Rhine, in Jens Weidmann's opinion, must be governed with the usual monetary rigor, even if this could put the recovery of the European periphery at risk .
BANKS CRASH, BINI SMAGHI TOWARDS MPS
It is no wonder that the banks, protagonists of the July/August rally, paid the price for the sudden freeze in Piazza Affari: Unicredit -5,2% Understanding -4,1% Where's Banca -5,1% Banco Popolare -4,5% Banca Popolare dell'Emilia Romagna -4,8% Mediobanca -3,9%. It's an exception Mps Bank +0,06%, after an effervescent morning.
The candidacy of Lorenzo Bini Smaghi has emerged for the presidency of the Mps Foundation. The General Deputation will meet today, but it should still be an interlocutory meeting and no decision should be made on the appointments of the president of the MPS Foundation, nor on the names of the managing Deputation and the board of statutory auditors.
Discounts also for insurance: Fondiaria Sai -3,7%, Generali only falls by 1,5%.
MOODY'S BANKS ITALCEMENTI THAT REBELS
In the industry segment, Fiat it lost 3,6%. “We ask Fiat to invest more in order to be a base from which production can also arrive in other countries,” Minister Flavio Zanonato explained in Rimini, announcing that Sergio Marchionne is available to discuss this. There has already been a meeting with the premier, Enrico Letta, a "positive" meeting from which confirmations emerged on the group's investments in Italy and on the fact that the plants will not be closed. The Italian government has also undertaken to present a plan by September to encourage investment by international companies in Italy which could also benefit the Lingotto.
Fiat Industrial – 2,46% – Societé Générale raised the target price from 9,7 to 10 euros, confirming the hold recommendation, to take into account the adjustments for minorities and the number of shares after the merger with CNH. Exor -3%. Finmeccanica -2,6%. They also fall Mediaset -3,7% and Diasorin -3,5%.
Eni and Enel finished down by 1,9%. Telecom Italy -2%. Moody's cuts its corporate family rating by Italcementi to 'Ba3' and the probability of default to 'Ba3-PD', with a stable outlook.
This is what we read in a note from the rating agency, which underlines how the company's credit parameters have been below expectations in the last twelve months and remains concerned about the concentration of the group's activities in France, Belgium, Egypt and Morocco. noting that Egypt's credit rating has recently been downgraded. For its part, Italcementi believes that this is “a hasty decision that does not fully evaluate the increasingly tangible results of our cost efficiency measures and strong liquidity position. An evaluation carried out by looking in the rear-view mirror.
In red Tenaris -2,76%. Banca Akros' experts confirmed the reduced rating and the target price at 15,5 despite the news of the agreement signed with Ternium and Tecpetrol International for the construction and management of a combined cycle plant in Mexico.
The only title on the list to close in the black, even if only slightly, was Parmalat which closed the session with +0,08%. In fact, attention has been rekindled towards a potential delisting after last week the parent company Lactalis, through the Sofil holding, bought about 2 million shares for a value of 5 million euro. But the hypothesis of a delisting is not probable in the short term for the Intermonte experts. "The purchases serve to offset the dilution following the issue of shares in favor of late creditors", commented the experts, confirming a neutral rating and a target price of 2,4 euros.
