Demography, Livi Bacci: "We need 2-300 thousand immigrants a year"

Demographically, the impact of the pandemic on Italy in 2020 was devastating. According to Istat, the population was reduced by 384 thousand units: as if a city as big as Florence had disappeared. At the same time, we recorded the lowest number of newborns since the unification of Italy (404, -3,8% year on year) and the all-time high of deaths since the Second World War (746.146, +17,6%). All in a scenario that was already critical before the virus, considering that in 2019 our birth rate was among the worst in the European Union, with 1,27 births per woman (worse than us, according to the Eurostat data, only Spain with 1,23 and Malta with 1,14).

Faced with such numbers, what should we expect for the future? We asked Massimo Livi Bacci, professor emeritus of Demography at the University of Florence, honorary president of theInternational Union for the Scientific Study of Population and academic of the Lincei.

Professor, what do you think the effects of Covid will be on Italian demography in the medium term?

«As regards survival, which is among the highest in the world, I assume an optimistic perspective, assuming that the diffusion of vaccines takes place without a hitch and that uncontrollable variants do not appear. The pandemic cost about a year and a half in terms of life expectancy in 2020 and will perhaps have less of an impact in 2021. It is to be assumed that survival in 2022 will be able to return to pre-2020 levels, resuming the underlying trend towards improvement. In 2021 it will be the births, which will reflect the conceptions that took place in the acute period of the pandemic, to mark a further decline, a consequence of the situation of uncertainty, the increase in unemployment, the fall in incomes. A part of this decrease is presumably due to a postponement of the couples' reproductive programs and could be recovered later, but a substantial part will not be recovered, and will weigh on the birth rate for the year, pushing births significantly below the little more than 400 that took place in 2020".

The birth rate also dropped during the lockdown: is it the fear of the future that drives you not to have children?

«In times of crisis or danger, the postponement of a pregnancy is a natural reaction, historically verifiable in the populations of the past. Especially in today's populations, in which the "command" of reproductiveness is complete and uncertainty invites reproductive prudence».

In this context, what role does immigration play for Italy and for Europe?

«Italy, in Europe, is with Spain the weakest large country in terms of demographics. The forecasts leave no doubts about the future decline in the working-age population, which can only be partially counteracted by an increase in activity rates. Immigration, well managed, is an accessible remedy, and migrant candidates, as is well known, are not lacking. But it is necessary that politics can converge in recognizing the facts and data, deliberately ignored and mystified, in order to build shareable and feasible migratory projects».

Do you share the position according to which the decline in population will weigh on the sustainability of the public debt?

«It is not the decline itself, but the modality of the decline: in the next thirty years, in Italy, the over-XNUMX year olds will double and the adults will decrease. It doesn't take much theory to understand the fiscal consequences of such an imbalance."

We come to the Italian government: what unprecedented measures could it adopt to counter the demographic decline?

«A sensible migration policy – ​​discussed and democratically approved in Parliament – ​​which envisages two or three hundred thousand arrivals a year; good integration mechanisms with particular reference to women; strong investments in second generation immigrants for schooling and training; graduated access to full political rights. And, with long-term effects, a social policy that sees birth, growth and training at its centre. The single child allowance is a good start».

What effects can it have?

“By itself, the effects on births will be limited. But it could be the beginning of a new policy: in the first place, the single check will allow for a better use of resources in favor of families and children, hitherto used in a disorderly and unfair manner. Secondly, it can constitute the cornerstone of a more incisive policy which links interventions in favor of the family with those aimed at increasing female employment (in a couple, two sources of income are often indispensable to ensure the stability necessary to plan a birth), to encourage gender equality (strongly unbalanced within the family), to accelerate the autonomy of children to place them earlier in the job market and make them capable of making vital decisions (starting a family) today pathologically delayed».

What are the mistakes to avoid?

“Haggling, postponing, grading, watering down, doing this but not that. All interventions must be started immediately. And they must be maintained over time, removing them from economic situations and changes of government».