Europe set on fire by hot african ofsubtropical anticyclone, with heat waves and sultriness that give no respite to 193 million people: it is a real heat emergency in the Old Continent and in Italy where the peak is expected for Monday 29nd June and we also have to deal with an alarming study of theEconomist according to which, in 3 days, the victims they could reach up to altitude 12milaThe exceptional heat wave is therefore moving to East moving progressively towards Turkey, but in France, where the pride marches in Paris and Lyon are cancelled, the situation remains very serious and in Germany the heat gives no escape to 75 million people.
African heat with the subtropical anticyclone
In Italy, record temperatures are recorded in South Tyrol (a Bolzano it was the hottest June night ever with the thermometer not dropping below 25,4 degrees) and in Sardinia, where temperatures reached 40-41 degrees in the internal plains. Emergency measures such as Genoa where the Bigo panoramic elevator stops, one of the main attractions of the Old Port, without air conditioning, and some are even canceling concerts. There are numerous inconveniences throughout the country: Modena 29 degrees have been reached in the rooms of the Emergency Internal Medicine department of the Baggiovara hospital, patients report while Cgil and Uil denounce "unsustainable temperatures in the museums of Florence“. THE Milan Pride parades regularly, although many are calling for consideration regarding moving the date. It's also a financial burden: the consumer association Assoutenti has calculated that the bill could reach up to 600 euros per month per family between the increased use of air conditioning, water consumption and expenses for ice cream or other products to cool down.
African subtropical anticyclone: forecast for Italy
Predictions on this African subtropical anticycloneThe end of the heat wave is linked to the weakening of the African anticyclone. Monday 29 the peak of the heat is expected. According to the Meteo.it, a more significant change could only come in the first days of July, when cooler currents could reach the Peninsula. However, experts point out that the transition to milder conditions may not be gradual. The large accumulation of heat in the atmosphere and marine waters could in fact favor the formation of particularly intense meteorological phenomenaThe arrival of cooler air could therefore cause heavy thunderstorms, heavy rainfall, hailstorms and localised cloudburstsThis would be a phase of potentially marked instability, a direct consequence of the long period of exceptional and persistent heat.
Always according to the Meteo.it, Wednesday, July 1st In fact, high pressure will begin to weaken as a wave of low pressure approaches from central Europe towards our northern regions. This will be a front of cooler but also markedly unstable air that will enter especially towards evening. Already during the day the atmosphere should be more unstable both in the North and in the Apennines with the development of scattered thunderstorms Locally extending to the Po Valley and toward the central Adriatic. The strongest events, with heavy rain, a risk of hail, and strong gusts of wind, are expected in the Northeast and, between evening and night, in the upper Adriatic and between the inland and central Adriatic regions. Equally strong but more localized episodes are not excluded elsewhere due to the pre-existing heat and humidity.
Thursday 2 The instability is expected to extend to the rest of central and southern Italy, with the risk of further severe weather events. severe bad weather It will be the price to pay for the long-awaited end of the intense and prolonged heat wave.
African heat in Germany and France
In Germany The warmest night ever recorded. Temperatures reached 29,4 degrees Celsius during the night, according to the German Meteorological Service (DWD). According to preliminary data, the record was set in Kubschütz, a municipality in Saxony. France, however, is heading towards more bearable temperatures on Sunday, following an 11-day historic heat wave and violent thunderstorms, but the delayed effects of the heat continue to burden hospitals and fuel fears of a high excess mortality rate.
African heatwave, Pregliasco raises alarm
This is no longer a simple summer heat wave, but a health event, a true health emergency, requiring an extraordinary response. When temperatures widely exceed 40°C and, above all, nighttime temperatures remain very high, our bodies are no longer able to recover from the heat stress accumulated during the day. It is precisely the persistence of the heat, even more than the peak, that is causing the increase in hospitalizations and deaths, especially among the elderly, people with chronic diseases, young children, and workers exposed to the outdoors. Weather forecasts indicate that the peak will affect Italy between today and tomorrow, with exceptional values in many areas of the country. Fabrizio Pregliasco, director of the specialization school in Hygiene and Preventive Medicine at the University of Milan La Statale, past president of Anpas and vice president of Samaritan International.
"We can't limit ourselves to red flags and recommendations to drink more," the expert warns. "We need a true national strategy for adapting to climate change: real-time epidemiological surveillance, active protection of vulnerable people, plans for cities, greater resilience of healthcare facilities, and enhanced home care. Extreme heat is now one of the major health emergencies of our time and risks becoming increasingly frequent. Continuing to treat it as an occasional emergency means arriving unprepared every summer," concludes Pregliasco.
African heatwave: The Economist study: up to 12 deaths
Il extreme heat peak recorded in Europe these days could cause up to 12 deathsThe estimate is that of theEconomist, which bases its calculation on the so-called "Masselot model", according to which the number of victims is not determined only by temperatures in absolute value, but also how unusual they areIn 2023, statistician and environmental epidemiologist Pierre Masselot and his colleagues at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, the British weekly reconstructs, modeled the relationship between temperature and mortality in 854 European cities, finding that when cities experience unusually high temperatures, people fare worse: 30°C in Manchester is much more lethal than in Madrid.
To estimate how lethal the current climate could be, writes theEconomist, “we combined Masselot's model with the average temperatures forecast for June 24-26, the peak of the heat wave”. The calculation “is imperfect”, because: “it does not consider factors such as humidity, but partially takes into account the night heat, which is one of the reasons this heat wave is so dangerous, because it leaves the body little time to recover“. “The results show that, in just three days, Extreme heat could cause around 12.000 excess deaths. Paris's mortality rate could increase by more than 300%, the largest increase in our analysis,” the British weekly continues, adding that “London's risk of death could increase by around 200%, Milan's by 170%.
