The war in the Middle East and the threat, which later became reality, that theIran is about to attack Israel they scare the bags, that today close again in drop in Europe, while Wall Street is moving in red mid day.
Square Business loses 1,04% and retreats below 34 thousand basis points (33.771), with banks at the bottom of the list, in the face of inflation below 2% in the euro zone - in a context of stagnant economy - which will almost certainly push the ECB to further rate cuts this month.
The banking sector also weighs down Madrid, -1,68%, which wears the black jersey, while losses are more contained Paris -0,81% and Frankfurt -0,64%. It's out of the chorus London + 0,46%.
In New York the DJ is losing 0,43%, the S & P 500 1,01%, the Nasdaq 1,74%. For now, Wall Street does not seem inclined to change pace, despite a final surge that allowed the DJ and S&P 500 to close yet another record session yesterday.
Iran Attacks Israel? Oil Soars
I price lists Europeans, which were showing a weak trend today, accelerated downwards after the indiscretion that Iran is about to launch an attack against Israel with ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones, which could hit air force bases and an intelligence headquarters north of Tel Aviv. The news was revealed by sources in the US administration and was also reported by the News, also citing three Israeli defense sources. This is one of the most feared scenarios also from the markets, which inflames however the PetroleumNovember Texas crude is up 4,52% and trading above $71,2 a barrel; Brent, the most traded contract in December, is up 4,21% at $74,72 a barrel.
Investors also protect themselves with the , which after a few slow days is back in the spotlight. Spot gold is up 1%, to a price of $2.662 an ounce.
Strengthening on the foreign exchange market dollar, after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell yesterday cooled expectations of another 50 basis point rate cut in November.
According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25 basis point cut at next month's meeting is 62,7%, compared to 41,8% a week ago. The euro-dollar is in the 1,106 area.
On the macro front, the US labor market showed signs of strength with the August job openings data slightly up to 8 million, above estimates, while the ISM manufacturing and construction spending data disappointed, both coming in below expectations.
In the area euro there has been an opening to a new cut by the ECB “hawk” Olli Rehn, governor of the Finnish central bank.
“We have received further confirmation from recent statistical data that inflation is slowing. This means, at least in my view, that there is more reason to lower rates at our October meeting. The recent weakening of the eurozone growth outlook tips the balance in the same direction.”
Inflation below 2% in Euroland. Manufacturing at a standstill
The macroeconomic elements of the day acted as a spur to a more accommodating stance by the ECB.
In particular theinflation in the region it is below 2% for the first time since 2021: consumer prices in September mark +1,8%, from +2,2% in August, thanks to the sharp drop in the energy component.
The bad news instead comes from manufacturing, with the publication of the PMI (drawn up on the basis of a survey with the purchasing managers of companies) that anticipate a difficult economic situation. In September the index fell to 45 points from 45,8 in August, touching the lowest level in the last 9 months, but doing slightly better than the estimates given at 44,8. It remains in contraction (below the limit of 50), especially in Germany, where the index fell to a 12-month low, to 40,6 points, from 42,4 in August. In Italy the index fell to 48,3 from 49,4.
Piazza Affari, Oil and Leonardo Rise. Stellantis Stalled
The current situation favors a strong recovery in oil and oil service stocks, while there is no redemption for Stellantis after yesterday's plunge of nearly 15%. The Italian-French company appreciates by 0,16%, but shows no signs of real recovery in the wake of the reduction in earnings forecasts for the current year.
They stand out at the top of the main list Tenaris + 2,83% Eni + 1,52% Saipem +1,09%. The defense title also puffs out its chest Leonardo + 1,7%.
Well the utilities: Italgas + 1,29% Snam + 1,09% Enel +0,64%. The electric giant also reached its highest level since 2021 in the session, following rumours released yesterday about a meeting between the CEO of BlackRock, Larry Fink and the CEO of Enel Flavio Cattaneo, before an institutional meeting with the prime minister at Palazzo Chigi. According to Reuters, the subject of the meeting appears to have been BlackRock's interest in power plant sites to be decommissioned and converted into AI data centers. According to Banca Akros, "there is little visibility on the negotiations. However, even if the deal were to go ahead, no particular impacts for the company are expected."
The losses are hitting banks the hardest, despite Jeffries raising his price targets for many stocks in the sector.
The worst blue chip of the day is Bper -4,85%. They are also in deep red Banco bpm, -4,39%, Ps -3,53% Pop from Sondrio -3,2% Unicredit -2,76% Understanding -2,66%.
Sales have returned to luxury Moncler -3,4%.
stm loses 2,4%, without benefiting from the start of a strategic collaboration with Qualcomm, in AI-powered wireless connectivity systems. In a joint note, it is emphasized that the collaboration will develop into the next generation of industrial and consumer IoT solutions powered by Edge AI.
The spread is stable
Lo spread remains stable at 133 basis points, with rates falling. In particular, the Bund fell below 2% today for the first time since December 2022.
As the closing approaches, the yield on the 10-year BTP is indicated at 3,37%, that of the Bund of the same duration at 2,04%.
