As reported by the Bulletin MiSE Exchanges with foreign countries, between April and June of this year, the growth of Italian GDP recorded a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0,3%. On a trend basis, i.e. if compared to the same period of the previous year, there was an even greater increase (+0,7%). Looking at the individual expenditure items, it can be seen that, if on the one hand consumption shows a slight recovery (+0,3% and +0,5%), on the other investments, which are essential to get out of the recession, recorded a drop of 2015% in the second quarter of 0,3. In this context the export of goods and services continues to be the strategic component capable of making a positive contribution to national wealth. Even this year, Made in Italy grew by 1,2% on a cyclical basis and by 4% on a trend basis, where, in the period considered, the trend GDP of the Eurozone grew by 1,5%, while that of the EU +1,9%. If we take a look at developments outside Europe, the USA achieved a particularly significant acceleration (+2,7%) confirming an intense recovery in the country's economic activity. The major national and international research institutes believe that 2015 will be the year in which the recession ends for Italy. In particular, the latest forecasts ofEconomist Intelligence Unit and OECD they estimate a GDP growth of between five and six tenths of a percentage point. However, a decidedly more optimistic scenario is reported to us by Confindustria. Analysts predict that the favorable combination of external elements such as the collapse in oil prices, the devaluation of the euro exchange rate, the acceleration of world trade and the decrease in long-term interest rates will generate a 1% boost for Italy of GDP in 2015 and a further 1,5% next year.
Between January and July of the current year, the current account balance was positive by just under 19 billion euro, with an increase on a trend basis of 5,3 billion. This positive result is, to a large extent, consequence of the excellent performance of the trade balance which closed the first seven months of the year with a surplus of over 31,9 billion. The substantial step forward in the trade balance, which improved by around 2014 billion on the first seven months of 4, is attributable to one export growth of 4,1% which was faced with a minor increase in imports (+2,7%). To this must also be added the contraction (equal to over 1,4 billion) in primary and secondary income liabilities, which represent current account items historically in deficit with foreign countries. As reported by Bank of Italy, primary incomes represent the compensation due to institutional units for their contribution to the production process or for the provision of financial assets or for the leasing of natural resources, while secondary incomes include current transfers between residents and non-residents, i.e. the supply of real resources or financial assets by a resident institutional unit to a non-resident one (and vice versa) without a corresponding economic counterpart. In its most recent outlook from last May, la European Commission revised downwards Italy's current account surplus for 2015: from 42,6 billion estimated in January to 36,5 billion, equal to 2,2% of GDP.
