Oil, Brent at the lowest since 2021 and Goldman Sachs revises them downwards. Fears of recession and a drop in energy demand, combined with increased production by OPEC+ countries, continue to put pressure on the…
Trump's tariffs trigger $2,5 trillion Wall Street rout. Trump says everything will be great afterward. Tokyo has another bad day, China is closed. European stocks are seen opening modestly lower.…
Uncertainty over the true extent and duration of the tariffs that Trump will launch on April 2 is shaking up stock markets, which are in a state of turmoil over fears that the trade war will pave the way for stagflation. In 2025, Tesla…
Tomorrow's meeting between Trump and Putin on Ukraine fuels the hopes of European stock markets, also boosted by Germany's investment plan, but US Secretary of State Bessent chills optimism: "We do not rule out recession". Wall Street, however…
ECONOMIC HANDS FOR MARCH 2025 – Fear and uncertainty undermine the American economy: will it lead to recession? Is the trade war similar to the one in the XNUMXs? Are the risks for the European economy to the downside or upside? Deflation…
Ref Ricerche's economic report: the repercussions of the fiscal squeeze on growth with the greatest uncertainties regarding the stability of the construction sector. A recession phase is likely despite the recovery of public works attenuating the contraction
Third rate cut for the ECB. "We are heading for a soft landing", reassured Lagarde, admitting however that "the economy is weaker than expected". Stock markets rise, Piazza Affari above 35 thousand points
The contemporary art market is facing unprecedented challenges due to saturation and rampant speculation. An excess of supply has diluted demand and forced resale values down. What is the future?
After the decline on Wall Street and the bad mood on Asian stock markets, European stock markets should have the strength to bounce back today. This week the ECB will pronounce itself on rates, next week it will be the Fed's turn
Interview with Angelo Bolaffi, philosopher and political scientist, a great expert on Germany. The origins of the electoral exploit of the pro-Nazis of Afd which however cannot be projected at a national level. The inequalities between East and West matter but the real weakness of…
Beyond the stock market fluctuations, the US economy belies the prophets of doom: the data deny that it is on the verge of recession. Waiting for the Fed's moves
European stock markets closed sharply lower, only partially recovering from the initial collapse caused by the dramatic opening of Wall Street, with the Nasdaq down 6% due to fears of recession. Will the Fed opt for extraordinary intervention?
The markets retreat heavily upon reopening and are preparing for a new wave of volatility for fear that a sharp slowdown in economic growth in the United States will force the Fed to take action too quickly, recovering…
THE CLOCKS OF THE ECONOMY OF JULY 2024 – Why can we exclude a recession? Can we expect a correction in the stock markets? What was the role of the 'Magnificent Seven' in Wall Street prices? Why did the stock markets rise both in…
Saturday 13 July on FIRSTonline the new issue of Le lancette dell'economia, the monthly economic analysis column edited by Fabrizio Galimberti and Luca Paolazzi which will address all current economic issues
The Rising Sun raises its head. No more zero rates. Wages are rising, Toyota is leading the charge but not everyone trusts. Inflation is already scary but for the big names the stock market is bull
The recession in Germany and the absence of Wall Street for Martin Luther King Day are pushing down all European stock markets and Milan is no exception
THE CLOCKS OF THE ECONOMY OF DECEMBER 2023 – What are the markets' reasons and the central banks' reasons for the decline in rates? Is the US economy headed for a soft landing? What weapons does China have to support the economy? Why the…
Speaking at a Financial Times event, Mario Draghi analyzed the current state of the EU which must become "a union capable of expressing a unique foreign and defense policy". On Ukraine: "War preceded by retreats on fundamental values, no to compromises"
There is no default on the horizon for the Italian economy but the party is over, GDP is slowing down, inflation is not falling enough, confidence is falling and the debt burden is becoming more cumbersome
THE CANCELS OF THE ECONOMY OF OCTOBER 2023 – What effects will the Hamas attack on Israel and the Israeli reaction have on the economy? Is this another 'black swan'? “High rates and for a longer time” is the new mantra of the markets: is it justified?…
Growth or recession, inflation, rates, currencies, stock markets, but what effect will the new conflict between Israel and Hamas have on economic affairs? The 14th edition of the Lancette dell'Economia will reveal it on Saturday 50 October on FIRSTonline
Oil production cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia push up prices and could fuel a monetary tightening if there are risks of a recession
What monetary policy will be that of the Fed and that of the ECB which will emerge from the world summit of central bankers in Jackson Hole scheduled for tomorrow - This is what all the stock exchanges are asking, today down, with the exception…
THE HANDS OF THE ECONOMY OF AUGUST 2023 – The economy is holding up in America and panting in Europe: what are the reasons for the gap? Do rising oil and gas prices threaten disinflation? Rates go up: are we close to the peak? The…
Interview with Alessandro Marino, Secretary General of the Italian-German Chamber of Commerce on the causes of Germany's slowdown: what repercussions it can have on Italian industry and the economy and why
THE HANDS OF THE ECONOMY OF JULY 2023 – In Italy and in the world, the 'engine room' of the economy, in this anomalous cycle, are services: why is industry in recession and how will it be able to support its activity again? How much ammunition does the government have…
For the Kairos strategist, the third quarter of 2023 will offer good opportunities to lighten positions and make portfolios more defensive. 2024, on the other hand, will be a year of cyclical recovery
To understand the immediate future of the economy, you need to answer 17 crucial questions: the hands of the economy by Fabrizio Galimberti and Luca Paolazzi will do it tomorrow on FIRSTonline
Interview with Mario Noera, Bocconi economist. The season of high rates is a serious problem for Italy which carries the weight of an enormous debt. The opposition should have jumped on the Green Deal in its entirety instead the project was…
Biden drops the ace in view of the 2024 presidential elections and focuses on Bidenomics: "We will grow the economy from the bottom up". Here is what the economic doctrine on which the president aims to win the elections provides
Today the Treasury closes a fabulous collection of Btp Value that is approaching 2 billion - The small European recession does not scare the markets and Wall Street officially enters the Bull area: from 12 October the S&P index is…
The modest technical recession in the Eurozone leaves the Stock Exchanges of the Old Continent and, even more so, the American one indifferent
Will there really be a flight from deposits around the world, paving the way for bank insolvencies and a credit crunch heralding a violent recession? Tomorrow the Lancette dell'Economia by Fabrizio Galimberti and Luca Paolazzi will answer
Intesa Sanpaolo analysts have analyzed the outlook for crude oil prices for 2023. The risks of a rise or fall in crude oil prices. Here's what's in the Report
According to Kairos' strategist, Alessandro Fugnoli, the economy is doing better than expected but it now has to face the uncertainty of the war in Ukraine, the rise in interest rates and the albeit mild recession: here's how to behave on the stock market
2022 was a turbulent year but forecasts for 2023 are better than expected: the economy will slow down (+0,7%), but not into a recession. From the ECB rate hikes negative effect of 1% until 2025
INTERVIEW WITH LORIANA PELIZZON, Ca' Foscari economist who deals with the stability of financial markets and systemic risks - "The financial system is fragile by definition and monetary policy is not an exact science" - So far "the…
According to Alessandro Fugnoli, after the exploits of the first few months of the year, the stock market seems to be oriented towards a lateral phase "until inflation and growth send clearer signals". Here's what to do
European Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni is more positive for 2023 and 2024, although some risks persist. Here are the winter 2023 economic forecasts presented by the EU Commission
Recession or economic recovery? How do you explain the recovery of the Stock Exchanges and how long will it last? These and other questions will be answered tomorrow by the Hands of the February 2023 economy
According to the Governor of the Bank of Italy, Ignazio Visco, Italy is able to manage the effects of the monetary restriction, but the ECB must evaluate the intensity and timing of the tightening to avoid the two risks that endanger the economies
Inflation slows due to the drop in gas prices with prices at a year low. And in Europe a cautious optimism is starting to prevail without going through the most painful road: the recession
THE HANDS OF THE ECONOMY FOR JANUARY 2023 - The economy is not worse than expected: will the recession be avoided? China bets on reopening: will it be disappointed? The markets expect milder advice from central banks: will they be denied? Because it improves the spread…
Slowdown without recession? Inflation at its peak or not yet? On Saturday morning, all the great unknowns of the moment will be answered by the Hands of the economy on FIRSTonline, the monthly analysis column of the economic situation with an eye on structural changes by Fabrizio Galimberti and…
The Svimez 2022 report presents a worrying picture of the future of the South. Very tight times to spend 252 billion available. A drastically different approach is needed or the recession will be severe in the South
In 2023, the British GDP will register a contraction of 1,4% - Maxi maneuver announced by 55 billion of spending cuts and tax increases to cover the hole in the public accounts
This afternoon at the Calidario di Venturina, in the province of Livorno, the conference "The Italian economy between inflation and recession" opens, promoted by Castagneto Banca 1910 - Speeches by Mannari (Castagneto Banca 1910), Locatelli (FIRSTonline), Macchiati (Luiss) and D'Alimonte (Luiss)
DBRS Morningstar confirmed Italy rating, keeping it at BBB - Manufacturing, private debt, savings and households save us, but beware of policy weakness
After +3,2% in 2022, next year will close for Italy with a 0,3% drop in GDP. The USA and China are slowing down, -3,4% in 2022 for Russia. According to the IMF, the "energy shock is not transitory"
On the eve of the new Fed tightening, the World Bank raises its voice: "Stop" - Yesterday another day of passion for the Stock Exchanges - Bond yields on the rise - Gold collapses
Alessandro Fugnoli, Kairos Strategist, explains why the market will no longer touch the highs of August but not even the lows of June after the declarations of the Central Banks
All eyes of the markets are turned today to the Jackson Hole meeting and Powell's speech at 16pm: where is America on inflation and the recession and what will the Fed do on rates?
The unstoppable rise in gas prices, the crisis of the euro against the dollar and the risk of recession scare the Stock Exchanges: Milan, Paris and Frankfurt are among the worst in Europe but the crash of the Nasdaq is also very heavy
According to the German Central Bank, “production decline in the winter months has become much more likely” – “Price risks in the event of a complete stop on Russian gas”
The PMI manufacturing indices in July drop everywhere below the threshold that separates expansion from contraction, at their lowest for over two years - The lowest figure is the Italian one
Powell denies that America is heading towards a recession, but warns that the rate hike is not over - The Nasdaq sparks - Quarterly earnings also help the stocks
The new round of US quarterly reports begins on Thursday. Could the impact on guidance and results curb the dollar's run? All the unknowns, questions and answers
THE HANDS OF THE ECONOMY OF JULY 2022 - The United States is close to recession and Europe? The Fed goes straight and wants to kill inflation. But will the struggling economy do the Fed's job? Will the dollar über alles continue? The Russian gold embargo…
“The ECB will raise rates without causing the economy to fall, but it is unlikely that it will find a solution for spreads. The State must do a lot, but not invade the space of private individuals".
Another day of passion for the stock exchanges due to a set of factors that conspire negatively - It's the worst semester on the stock market since 1970
Lots of news for Piazza Affari: Eni postpones the listing of Plenitude while De Nora goes ahead. Green light for the Benetton takeover bid on Atlantia. In Europe, meanwhile, the recession is advancing
According to a former Fed governor, "the economy risks a crash a la Willy the Coyote" - The spread falls while waiting for the ECB parachute - Brussels is working on the gas cap
In times of war, are you more concerned about the risk of recession or the resurgence of inflation? Tomorrow, Saturday 7 May, the hands of the economy will respond on FIRSTonline
Caporetto of Wall Street, which renounces its faith in the Fed of the day before and ends up knocked down: the Nasdaq has lost 5% - What will Europe do today? - The spread is close to 200
THE HANDS OF THE ECONOMY FOR APRIL 2022 - The war in Ukraine brings down the confidence of households and businesses, and inflation drives up rates: is the recession approaching? Will Europe really do without Russian gas? How do the…
The world economy is on the march. But some countries are running and others are stuck. The same differences exist in the sectors. What causes them.
The caution of the ECB on the economy in the first quarter and the resurgence of the pandemic keep the markets apprehensive. Bad banks and oil companies but luxury rises with Ferragamo
In the second quarter, British GDP dropped 20,4%, officially entering the "worst recession ever recorded".
The collapse of GDP in the second quarter also in Italy, France and Spain weighs on share prices but the super-profits of the Big Four of the Internet push the Nasdaq upstream - At Piazza Affari the best stock of the Ftse Mib is…
The Coronavirus is only the latest systemic crisis that has shocked the world in the last twenty years - But, as Thomas Friedman, winner of two Pulitzer Prizes, wrote in the New York Times, of which we publish the complete Italian version, the bells…
After the OECD forecasts on the recession, all equity lists are in the red, except for the Nasdaq where the big names in high tech continue to run - Waiting for Powell's intervention but the Fed will not change rates - Piazza Affari loses…
The impressive sequence of data from the recession. The gap between countries. The fears in Phase 2. Why supply and demand remain misaligned
Positive futures this morning, but uncertainty reigns supreme on the markets - Rain of quarterly reports in Piazza Affari: the Coronavirus effect is felt, but the strongest limit the damage
The collapse of the GDP in all countries is frightening and pushes down all share prices - Lagarde's ECB moves are not enough - Piazza Affari leaves more than 2% in the field.
The recession will be tougher than the XNUMXs: this is the alarm launched yesterday by the Monetary Fund, according to which our country will be the one to emerge worst from the Coronavirus: rain of sales on BTPs and higher spreads - Yet, Wall Street…
According to the IMF's World Economic Outlook, Italian GDP will record an unprecedented collapse in 2020, while the unemployment rate will soar to 12,7% - The repercussions of the coronavirus on all Eurozone countries are very serious while the global economy…
According to the Confindustria Study Center, the coronavirus "strikes the heart" of the Italian economy: GDP will collapse by 10% in the first half and by 6% at the end of the year
All of Italy is wondering when we will safely emerge from the quarantine - Not immediately but not even when the anti-Covid 19 vaccine arrives, which will take a year and a half or two - We talk about it after Easter - Reconciling the fight against the emergency…
In a letter to Conte, Gualtieri and Gentiloni, economists advocate an 8-point plan of the European Union to deal with the dramatic health and economic emergency we are experiencing
The Milanese Study Center has calculated the Coronavirus effect on the Italian economy sector by sector, reaching chilling estimates and it is not said that, after the imminent recession, the recovery will be V
The Coronavirus effect and the looming risk of recession put the financial markets in crisis - Sharp falls on all stock markets and Milan is among the worst - Stm, Juventus and Azimut lead the decline of Piazza Affari while…
According to the Prometeia analysis center, Italy's GDP will contract by 2020% in the first quarter of 0,3, causing the fourth technical recession since 2009 - Here's what we risk from the coronavirus effect
The first economic data for February will be released next week and it is very probable that the Italian GDP will be negative for the first quarter of 2020 - In the immediate future, the hardest repercussions of the coronavirus effect will be on services, but then they will weigh…
The clashes in Hong Kong, Johnson's latest plan on Brexit and the recession that is advancing in Europe are increasingly worrying the markets and reflecting on stock exchanges and bonds, currencies and raw materials: here's how
For ECB president, central banks should think about putting money directly into the pockets of those who spend it - Achtung Germany - Johnson denies Thomas Cook bailout
Industrial production fell 4,2% yoy and 0,6% from the previous month.
China cuts rates while Germany prepares the anti-recession cure even at the cost of violating the balanced budget - Johnson flexes his muscles to the Europeans - Today Conte resigns
Germany is one step away from recession and to face it, Chancellor Merkel does not rule out giving up a balanced budget to support investments - But Von Der Leyen's EU is also preparing to send…
In its latest forecast report, the Ref Ricerche study center states that basic income and quota 100 "could have limited effects on domestic demand"
After losing 7% yesterday following a disappointing quarterly result, Google today leaves more than 8% in the field and pushes the American stock market into negative territory - Piazza Affari, on the other hand, is up thanks to the rebound of Ferragamo and…
According to the OECD, the Italian economy is heading towards recession. The forecasts for 2019 for our country contained in the Italy Report do not leave much hope and according to the OECD, the Italian GDP will fall below zero this year, settling at -0,2%. But the…
The President's party has already announced its intention to contest the results - The opposition keeps Izmir and takes the cities of the Mediterranean coast - Erdogan's AKP remains the first party at national level, but the effects of the economic recession…
The hypotheses of alliances with Peugeot or Hyunday give shine to FCA and the parent company Exor and Ferrari even in a depressed session of the Stock Exchange - Campari also bucking the trend - Stm especially down but also Fineco, Pirelli ...
The American yield curve signals the risk of a recession and the Asian stock exchanges collapse while bonds soar - Gold and copper skyrocket - Waiting for the Ifo in Germany - The Tories process May - FCA at…
INTERVIEW WITH GREGORIO DE FELICE, chief economist of Intesa Sanpaolo - "There are signs for a recovery of the Italian economy in the second half of the year but large margins of uncertainty remain" - "For now we assume GDP growth in 2019 at…
In the first month of the year, Piazza Affari was among the most brilliant stock exchanges, with a significant rise, but yesterday it began to deal with the ballast of the recession: Ferrari is racing but the banks remain unknown - On…
Even if the reduction in GDP in the last two quarters of 2018 is modest, we must expect another minus sign for this year with negative repercussions on the public finances which once again put Italy in difficulty compared to Europe
After the anticipation of Prime Minister Conte, the official data has arrived. Based on preliminary estimates, GDP fell by 2018% in the fourth quarter of 0,2 - The decline follows the -0,1% recorded between July and September - Agriculture is doing badly,…
The Fed postpones the rate hike and Wall Street celebrates: Facebook in orbit - The City snubs the unknown Brexit - BTPs rise despite the imminent announcement of Italy's entry into recession - Luxury runs - Juve also falls in…
