Sure, the blue chips continue to be the locomotives of the markets, but the mid and small caps They represent an excellent platform on which to place your investment and participate in the race, at lower prices. This emerges from the Italian Mid/Small Caps Monthly di Intermonte which analyses the sector shortly before the curtain opens on the second quarter accounting season and shows “several interesting opportunities thanks to attractive ratings, estimates on resilient profits and improvement of the liquid assets" says the report edited by Andrea Randone, Head of Mid Small Cap Research. “The companies in the sector represent a efficient access to growth trends global, benefiting from more convenient multiples and a progressive strengthening of market conditions”.
Since the beginning of 2026 (data as of June 22) Business Square gained 16,4%, driven mainly by Ftse Eb (+17,2%), while the Ftse Italia Mid Cap stopped at +10% and the Ftse Italia Small Cap It's even in negative territory (-2,1%). Larger-cap companies have also performed better in the last month, with an 8,3% gain versus a 7,1% gain for mid-caps and a 5,2% gain for small-caps.
Despite performance still varying across segments, the data appears to indicate a progressive strengthening of market conditions, with no evidence of a deterioration in fundamental expectations or clear signs of valuation bubbles among Italian mid- to small-caps, the report says.
Il mid-cap rerating since the beginning of the year it has been equal to 14,3%, close to the 15,2% recorded by blue chips, while that of small caps has been limited to 3,6%. Furthermore, the evaluation award of mid and small stocks compared to the Ftse Mib has decreased to 17%, below the historical average of 21%, a sign that the market does not show speculative excesses. Added to this is an improvement in the liquid assets, which grew by 44% in mid-caps and by 32,4% in small-caps compared to last year.
For Intermonte however the geopolitical framework The outlook remains "deeply uncertain: markets are wavering between hopes that the US-Iran agreement will pave the way for a resolution to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and doubts about whether this agreement actually has any substance." Risks related to inflation and the economic slowdown remain "variables that are difficult to predict, not yet fully incorporated into consensus estimates," while initial indications of second-quarter 2026 results highlight "operating performances that in many cases are less brilliant than in the previous quarter."
Estimates, Re-rating, and Liquidity: Intermonte's metrics
Since the beginning of 2026, we have implemented a upward revision of 1,5%/1,7% of our stime on 2026/2027 EPS, the report says, but these figures would be negative (-2%/-0,7%) if energy stocks were excluded. In particular, over the past month, estimate revisions have been positive for large-caps (+1,2%/+1,7% on 2026/2027 EPS). Focusing on our mid-small-cap coverage, we have implemented an upward revision of +0,2%/+0,1% on 2026/2027 EPS over the past month.
If we compare the performance since the beginning of 2026 with the change in estimates for the '26 financial year in the same period, we see that the FTSE MIB stocks have recorded a re-rating by 15,2% (it was +6,6% a month ago), mid-caps by 14,3% and small caps by 3,6%. On a P/E basis, our panel is trading at a 17% premium to large caps, below the historical average premium (21%) and the level of a month ago (21%).
Looking at the trend of the official Italian indices, we note that the liquid assets Large-cap liquidity over the past month (measured by multiplying average volumes by average prices over a given period) is up 37,1% compared to the same period a year ago (last month it was up 16,1% year-over-year) and 16,4% year-to-date. The picture is also improving for mid- and small-caps: specifically, since January 1, 2026, liquidity has increased 44% year-over-year for the former and 32,4% for the latter, with a notable improvement for mid-caps over the past month.
The 10 best and 10 worst performances for Intermonte since the beginning of the year.
Among the companies followed by Intermonte at the top of the 2026 ranking is Tesmec, which has recorded a 131% increase since the beginning of the year. Followed by Mon-Fri (+ 77%), wiit (+ 64%), Pharmanutra (+ 62%), Somec (+ 51%), Italian Exhibition Group (+ 50%), Danieli (+ 50%), Star7 (+ 39%), Revo Insurance (+ 34%) and Ovs (+28%). Just outside the top ten are Datalogic (+ 26%), Cy4Gate (+ 25%) and Igd (+ 22%).
On the opposite front, the strong corrections of Misitano & Stracuzzi (-85%), Bff Bank (-67%) And The Italian Sea Group (-67%). Completing the negative ranking Webuild (-29%), Propeller (-28%), Marr (-26%), Ariston Holding (-26%), Interpump (-25%), doValue (-24%) And Cementir (-17%).
The companies that recorded the highest rerating
The analysis of rerating, i.e., the increase in valuation that the market attributes to stocks in relation to the evolution of expected earnings, highlights a ranking that is somewhat different from simple stock market performance. Ahead Tesmec remains in the top spot, with a rerating of 137%, ahead of Lu-Ve (72%), Wiit (67%), Datalogic (52%), Italian Exhibition Group (51%), Pharmanutra (48%), Cy4Gate (41%), Revo Insurance (37%), Intercos (26%), and Fine Foods (23%). IGD and Anima (22%) also rank among the top positions. At the other extreme These include The Italian Sea Group, which shows a de-rating of 67%, Bff Bank (-46%), Misitano & Stracuzzi (-41%), Webuild (-29%) and doValue (-23%), a sign that the market has significantly reduced the multiples recognized for these companies.
Companies with the highest expected EPS growth
Among the metrics most closely monitored by investors is the expected growth in earnings per share in 2026 compared to 2025. Intermonte's ranking sees Aquafil in first place, with an expected increase in EPS of 123%, followed by doValue (+83%), Gpi (+71%), Redelfi (+52%), Tecno (+50%), Piaggio (+46%), Seco (+35%), DHH (+33%), Carel Industries (+32%), and Somec (+32%). Just outside the top ten are Danieli and El.En., both with expected growth of 30%, followed by Revo Insurance (+29%).
