To those who are about to vote for the parties that would like to leave the euro, I would suggest not to tire themselves out in searching for the reasons that justify it, for the advantages that should derive from it for our country. This "doing good for Italy" is an exercise that for some time now has little enthusiasm for the majority of voters, despite the insistence of the writings of the major commentators who, in this specific case, envisage truly dramatic scenarios in the event of a return to the lira.
I would rather suggest thinking only of your own sinister personal gain. As an economist I can guarantee that it is a choice that is not only understandable but also justified by the science that I have now been practicing for more than forty years. After all, Adam Smith, the father of political economy, preached this: look to your individual interest and you will serve everyone's interest!
So I would ask, before going to the vote on May 25, to ask yourself two obvious and simple questions. With the abandonment of the euro, will I be able to arrive better at the end of the month? Will there be more opportunities for me and my children to find work?
Let's try to answer, using common sense above all. If we leave the single currency that we have been using for almost fifteen years now, it is because we want a new devalued lira and we are convinced that it will enrich us. Will we have higher income, in real terms, which allows us to buy more? Certainly we will feel bad when we go abroad as we like to do. But even in Italy there would be no reason to be happy because there will be inflation – it has never been seen that a devaluation of the currency does not cause an increase in consumer prices. If we are among the 16 million pensioners, inflation (even if it is modest) will penalize us, unless we delude ourselves about the possibility that any government will not only devalue but also increase pensions. Same thing if we are civil servants. If, on the other hand, we are among the approximately 13 million who work for private companies, can we really hope that things will go better, that we will be able to achieve wage and salary increases greater than inflation? Only if our employers manage to increase our productivity, a miracle since it has practically not increased for over ten years.
So? What must happen if a devaluation is to revive the economy will happen: workers' real incomes will fall. If we add public pensions and salaries, roughly 30 of the 47 million voters will certainly be worse off. Without forgetting that before the euro, by dint of devaluations, we played industries where we were among the first. For example, we produced better cars than the German ones and today those who work for Volkswagen and BMW earn much more than those who work for Fiat and have also enjoyed a year-end bonus, the same for everyone, of 6/7000 euros.
