For those who rejoice at every small increase in US employment, one fact: the 40% of Americans have been laid off at least once in recent yearsThe worst blow in 2022: the number of layoffs had reached a record 15,4 million. That is: one thing is the employment data (largely characterized by low and very low wages), another is that of those who lose their jobs. And again, one thing is the creation of jobs, another is the number of employed people because, as has been happening for years in North America, an American often has to have two jobs to afford a bearable lifestyle.
But the even more surprising fact is that more than half of those fired are workers in the technology sector. Never happened before. Because – managers, politicians, scholars unanimously warn – together with inflation and the crisis, the effects of theArtificial intelligence. Only mitigated, however, by the most important American program of investment in R&D since the war, the Biden government's Chips and Science Act which with about 53 billion dollars has triggered investments - announced or already underway - by private individuals for a value of 400 billion with 110 thousand job forecasts. The wave of restructuring and automation, however, is much stronger.
Hi-tech has crashed
The complexity of the world of work is such today that it becomes insufficient and even distorting to comment on a single piece of data without examining the other items, which are often more indicative of reality. The major American experts have been admitting this for at least two years now, once the most reluctant to consider in depth those "sensitive" data, dazzled only by theunemployment trend. And as Gregg Jantz, founder of the counseling center “A Place of Hope” and author of the best-selling book, points out The Anxiety Reset, the country is approaching a “serious mental health crisis.” As they have repeatedly written Forbes, Reuters, Bloomberg e wsj (just to mention the most popular media), it's been two years that the tech industry, usually an unstoppable engine of almost bulimic job creation, is laying off, at an impressive pace, technicians, middle managers and researchers.
Here's How Many Will Lose Their Jobs by 2030 (and Where)
And since numbers don't lie, here's what actually happened in both the American manufacturing industry and the hardest hit, thehi-tech, largely due to automation and AI. In the last two years alone, 28 percent of workers have been laid off. By 2030, 20 million will lose their jobs in manufacturing, and more than half of those in high-tech, with a potential to destroy jobs in all sectors of the US economy of 73 million workers, equivalent to a staggering 46 percent of the current number of workers. And Artificial Intelligence would become and has already become – by unanimous opinion – the primary cause of this tsunami. This means, writes Forbes, that surprisingly, most of the layoffs come from the privileged sectors, where full employment was supported by elite immigration and a search for personnel from one state to another with a competition of incentives, gifts, benefits.
Structural crisis or not?
Since 2022, annus horribilis for employment after the Covid boom, experts had taken for granted a period of strong and lasting recovery. Instead, layoffs recorded their highest peak in 2023 and then continued largely in hi-tech and manufacturing, with increasing numbers. The fact that the employment index recorded positive variations – albeit weak – does not at all indicate, as has been observed, that there have been positive effects on hi-tech. Ad August, According to Reuters, US employers have announced the highest number of layoffs in five months, driven by cuts in the technology sector, in a context of bleak prospects.
“More than half of August’s job cuts were in the technology sector, totaling 39.563, up sharply from about 6.000 in July and the highest number since January 2023. The healthcare sector had the second-largest number of announced layoffs, with 6.158 cuts.” The data reported comes from official sources and in particular from the most consulted outplacement firm, the Challenger, Grau&Christmas. And while the annual total is down compared to 2023 (the record year for cuts), it is hi-tech that is instead maintaining a worrying trend. Companies are also implementing investments in robotics and automation in addition to artificial intelligence. Furthermore, the company points out, companies could disguise the cuts associated with AI under other labels. To tone down the unflattering image of AI, the highly paid consulting firms of the digital multinationals they are busy predicting a future full of prospects. “The retail and communications industries are going through massive technology upgrades,” says Cliff Jurkiewicz, vice president of global strategy at Phenom, a human resources technology company. “Artificial intelligence is driving the expansion in technology. Like disruptive technologies before it, AI is creating new roles and new skill requirements for existing roles.” But two key facts belie the optimism.
The Promises of Artificial Intelligence
The first is the extreme vagueness of these promises, as it is not clear which areas of expertise are safe or which new roles will be available. Many internal experts at the companies, in private and requesting absolute anonymity, declare that these are promises that are intended to mask reality and postpone the problems. In 2023, when, for example, 240.000 jobs disappeared in the technology sector, the big tech companies blamed economic uncertainty, the need to restructure after the surge in hiring during the pandemic. Never to AI. But the worrying technological trend has continued in 2024 thanks to automation and AI. The second, much more worrying fact is the united reaction of the financial world worldwide. In the past week, the U.S. equity funds recorded about $879 million in net sales in the technology sector, the largest weekly outflow in six weeks, a negative sign of declining confidence.
Concerns in Europe too
A recent report by Alix Partners interviewed nearly 350 technology executives across North America, Europe, Middle East e Africa yielded very similar results. 25% of US technology leaders said they forecast layoffs for 2025, while 37% expressed uncertainty about the need to reduce the workforce. As for the area emea, 28% of tech executives expect layoffs and report high uncertainty. With a common comment: As investment in AI continues to increase, we should expect further cuts to fund it. What jobs are least likely to be affected by AI? Those rooted in human empathy and physical capabilities, such as healthcare, skilled trades, education, and creative professions.
