Here we are. Today at 16pm, the 22 in Italy, in what US President Donald Trump has dubbed “the day of liberation”, the US administration will officially announce the imposition of universal “reciprocal” tariffs. The rates will have immediate effect: will come into force immediately after the announcement from the Rose Garden and will be added to those already decided on auto imported, which will start on April 3, and on thealuminumAccording to the latest hypotheses, the White House tenant is thinking about 20% tariffs on all countries which have trade with the US. Meanwhile, The European Union sharpens its weapons and prepares the reaction, despite the Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has invited its European interlocutors to “avoid fueling an escalation of duties against duties”. The impact of the tariffs on Italy could vary from a few tenths of GDP in the best case scenario to half a percentage point in the worst.
US tariffs, the announcement today: here are the hypotheses in the field
At the moment there is no certainty. Until a few hours ago, there was talk of "reciprocal" tariffs and differentiated country by country. But now Trump has changed his mind and, according to the Wall Street Journal, is preparing to impose 20% tariffs on all countries that trade with the United States. An idea – warned the chief economist of Moody's Analytic Mark Zandi – that, if it were to materialize, would risk in the worst case scenario making the American economy slide, causing the unemployment rate to skyrocket to 7,3% and causing the loss of five million jobs by early 2027. The other hypothesis is that of duties reciprocal for all countries to be negotiated with interested parties. It is not even excluded that Trump could still opt for a “mixed” system, with three levels of tariffs aimed at individual countries or groups. We will just have to wait and see which countries and sectors will be most affected.
The American president sarcastically stated that he would be “very kind” to the United States’ trading partners when he made the announcement. Other countries “have taken advantage of us and we will be very kind to them, compared to what they have done to us,” he continued, assuring that US customs duties will be “lower” and in some cases “significantly lower” than those imposed by other states. “The tariffs will put an end to unfair trade practices,” White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt added in an interview with Fox, stressing that with the tariffs, “the rest of the world will feel what the Americans have felt. Tariffs will ensure reciprocity".
The reaction of the European Union
Speaking at the European Parliament plenary session on Tuesday, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said: “This clash is not in anyone's interesto”: the EU-US “is the largest and most prosperous trade relationship in the world and we would all be better off if we could find a constructive solution. At the same time, it must also be clear: Europe did not start this fight. We do not necessarily want revenge, but we have a strong plan to take revenge if necessary".
“Many Europeans feel completely discouraged by the US announcements,” von der Leyen continued. “I want to be clear: Europe did not start this fight. We think it is wrong. But my message to you today is also that we have everything we need to protect our people and our prosperity.” “We have the largest single market in the world. We have the power to negotiate. We have the power to push back. And European citizens should know: together we will always promote and defend our interests and values. And we will always fight for Europe,” she stressed, she concluded.
As regards individual countries, the France, together with other Member States, has proposed to use the anti-coercion tool, which allows for the adoption of economic measures against states that exert unfair commercial pressure. The Italian Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni, for his part, invites not to respond blow for blow and to take time to negotiate. "We must avoid fueling an escalation of tariffs against tariffs, because everyone would pay the price,” the Prime Minister reportedly told her supporters, and she will probably try to take advantage of Vice President JD Vance’s visit to Rome, scheduled for the end of April, to try to open a gap and make a dent in US resistance.
Mattarella: “A united response is needed from the EU”. Meloni: “Adequate action if necessary”
US tariffs are a “deep mistake" so from the European side "a compact response is needed, serene, determined", said the President of the Republic, Sergio Mattarella, meeting Estonian President Alar Karis at the Quirinale. Speaking at the award ceremony for the Maestro dell'arte della cucina italiana prize, the Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni she said instead: “I remain convinced that we must work towards avoid a trade war in all possible ways which would not benefit anyone, neither the United States nor Europe, which obviously does not exclude having to imagine, if necessary adequate responses to defend our productions".
US tariffs: what Italy risks
Together with Germany, Italy is among the countries which risk the most serious consequences. To date, in fact, the United States represents the second largest export market for our country, with approximately 65 billion euros in sales (3% of GDP), with a surplus of almost 39 billion. Also to be considered indirect exposure which weighs on many intermediate goods that our companies sell to other companies, Italian or foreign, which then export to the United States.
According to Confindustria estimates, the US market would be worth 7% of industrial production. Italian exports – explains the Confindustria Study Centre – are more exposed than the EU average to the US market: 22,2% of Italian sales outside the EU, compared to 19,7% of those in the EU”. Among the sectors most exposed to duties, the most notable are beverages (39%), the motor vehicles and other means of transport (30,7% and 34,0%, respectively) and the pharmaceutica (30,7%).
According to the latest calculations, in the best-case scenario the impact of tariffs on our economy will amount to a few tenths of GDP, while in the worst-case scenario it could exceed half a percentage point, effectively wiping out the increase in Gross Domestic Product forecast for 2025 and 2026. Italy would thus return to stagnation.
