Achtung, “there is pressure on Draghi”, headlines Handelsblatt. Mario Draghi's last performance will be staged today at 13,45 pm in anticipation of the farewell pass from the ECB which will be celebrated at the meeting at the end of October. And it will not be an easy recitation, in the face of divisions within the Central Bank in the face of a difficult situation that escapes the usual therapies based on the easing, albeit necessary and inevitable, of rates: 6 members of the ECB out of 25 would be skeptical about the therapy anti-recession.
DEPOSIT RATE CUT BUT NO QE
The European Central Bank is expected to announce a cut in the deposit rate by 10 basis points, to -0,50%. But the markets are also awaiting indications both on any new cuts and on any new instruments. However Draghi, given the resistance of the bankers in the North, should leave the task of starting QE 2.0 to Christine Lagarde, at the top of the bank since the beginning of November.
It won't be the only news. The ECB offices, faced with the risk that sub-zero yields lead banks to collapse, should also introduce a multiple regime on deposit rates: banks that only bring excess liquidity to the Frankfurt parking lot, compared to the required reserves, should be exempt from payment. There should therefore be measures capable of pushing up the Euribor and making the rate curve in the euro area less flat, in support of the banks.
PRUSUS, THE INTERNET COLOSSUS, ARRIVES FROM SOUTH AFRICA
Meanwhile, two pieces of news underline the decline of old Europe in the world balance: the offering of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on the London Stock Exchange; the discovery that the largest Internet company listed since yesterday in Europe, Prosus, comes from the Johannesburg Stock Exchange.
While awaiting the decisions in Frankfurt, the first of the central bank leaders (today, among other things, the bank of Turkey is meeting), meanwhile holds the usual barrage of broadsides against President Trump's Fed, which has come to hope for interest rates negative for the institution. But Trump was also the protagonist of "a gesture of goodwill": the postponement of the tariff increases scheduled for October XNUMX by two weeks.
ASIA AT THE TOP FOR SIX WEEKS
These changes favor a positive opening of the financial day.
Asian price lists have risen to a maximum of six weeks. The Japanese stock market is still advancing (+0,9%), as are the Csi 300 index of Shanghai and Shenzhen (+0,4%). The renminbi, the Chinese currency, appreciated against the dollar at 7,08.
The exception is Hong Kong (-0,4%) on the wave of the stock exchange offer for the City. The stock of the ex-colony stock exchange, Hkex, lost 3,3%.
IT BOND HOLDS BACK, OIL RISES
Last night on Wall Street the S&P500 closed up 0,7% at 3000 points, Dow Jones +0,85%. NASDAQ +1,1%.
The markets continue to distance themselves from safe-haven assets: the 1,76-year Treasury Note yields XNUMX%, thirty basis points higher than the levels at the beginning of the month.
Oil prices are recovering after the renewal of the axis between OPEC and Russia which has balanced the expectations of a relaxation of the embargo on Iran. Wti at 56,18 dollars per barrel (+0,7%).
In Piazza Affari yesterday Eni -0,2%. HSBC cut the judgment to Hold, target price of 14,6 euros, from the previous 17 euros.
The euro-dollar, which dropped by 0,4% yesterday on the effect of signs of a reawakening of producer prices in the United States, moved to 1,101 this morning.
CONTRAST PLACE OF BUSINESS, FRANKFURT HALLS
Piazza Affari did not find a precise direction on the eve of the ECB directorate. Following the script of the last few days, the uncertainty about the banks has translated into short-term day trading: purchases in the morning, sales in the afternoon with the transparent fear of remaining with the match in hand.
The index (+0,10%) thus closed with a slight gain at 21.891 points after having exceeded 22 at the start.
Draghi's expectation does not scare Frankfurt (+0,75%). Angela Merkel this morning cools down expectations of an increase in investment spending, a hypothesis you spoke about yesterday, again during the debate in Parliament on the budget law, by the Finance Minister. The chancellor says that Germany must first complete the already substantial investment plans underway. Sale Paris +0,44%.
MADRID LEAKS INDITEX (ZARA)
In Madrid (-0,23%) Inditex loses ground (-3,88%) which owns, among others, the brands Zara, Massimo Dutti, Bershka, Oysho. In the first fiscal semester (ends at the end of July), the Spanish giant of the clothing sector achieved a net profit growing by 9,9% on an annual basis, to 1,54 billion euros. But the net result of about 815 million is slightly lower than analysts' estimates.
The European Central Bank will today cut some growth estimates during and forecasts will highlight a modest rise in inflation in the coming years. Reuters anticipates this by quoting Eurotower forecasts: Growth for this year and for 2020 will be indicated not much above 1%.
LONDON, THE OFFER FROM THE FORMER COLONY IS HOLDING OFF
The liveliest stock exchange is London (+0,96%) electrified by a mega offer arriving from Hong Kong on the London Stock Exchange.
The market company that operates the Hong Kong stock exchange and clearing house — Hkex — has made a £31,6 billion ($36 billion) takeover offer to take over the London Stock Exchange group. The offer, which has not been agreed, presupposes that the operator of the London stock exchange shelve the planned acquisition of Refinitiv. It is almost certain that the LSE board will reject the offer.
Borsa Italiana depends on the English Stock Exchange, but above all Mts, the platform on which listed and unlisted government bonds are traded in wholesale unit quantities, a strategic asset for which the golden share could be adopted.
This week's decision by Boris Johnson to suspend parliament for five weeks is illegal and should be reversed. This is what Scotland's highest court of appeal ruled, causing an embarrassing setback for the British prime minister.
PROSUS, THE 100 BILLION GIANT ARRIVES IN AMSTERDAM
Without any emphasis Prosus made its debut yesterday in Amsterdam, a semi-unknown digital giant controlled by the South African Naspers, already listed in Johannesburg, traded at its debut with a market value of more than 100 billion euros, in second place among the big European digital technology behind to the German Sap. Prosus invests in a portfolio of global web companies, in sectors ranging from fintech to digital services (Russian mail R.) to food delivery (Deliveroo).
The group's best-known investment so far is a 31% stake in Chinese tech giant Tencent, a gaming giant and owner of the hugely popular messaging app WeChat.
BTP YIELDS ARE ALSO FALLING
A session of wide swings also for the Btp, whose yield went from 1,04% in the morning to 0,98% in the late afternoon (from 1,01% on the eve).
The spread between 155-year BTPs and Bunds stood at 159 basis points from XNUMX at the end of Tuesday's session.
Today the Treasury is making available to investors up to 7,75 billion of the new 3-year BTP - coupon 0,05% - and the reopening of 7 and 30 years. In the final gray market, the three-year traded at 99,94 with a yield of 0,068%.
STM AT THE TOP, ALSO ON PRYSMIAN AND LEONARDO
In great evidence yesterday tech stocks and telecommunications. Stm stands out (+3,99%) supported by the launch of the new iPhones: the Italian-French group achieves 13% of its turnover with Apple.
Prysmian (+3%) and Leonardo (+1,65%) also rose.
Telecom Italia should be noted (+1,09%). JP Morgan upgraded the rating from Neutral to Overweight. Target revised to 0,69 euro from the previous 0,55 euro.
The banks, leaders of the rise in recent days, reversed course in the afternoon in view of the ECB directorate. In particular, Unicredit (-1,2%), Ubi Banca (-2%) and Banco Bpm (-2,6%) lose ground.
Also in the red are Pirelli (-1,22%) and FCA (-1,21%). Renault CEO Thierry Bolloré reiterated that the alliance between FCA-Renault, while valid in terms of industrial logic, has failed and there are no talks in progress.
Ferrari (+0,7%) is trying to recover after Monday's bankruptcy (-6%). Instead, Cnh is advancing (+2,47%).
EQUITA CHARGES TECHNOGYM
In the rest of the price list, the leap of Technogym (+7,5%) promoted by Equita which brought the recommendation to Buy from Hold with a target of 12 euros.
