Nobody knows how it will end the craziest political crisis in the world but perhaps something more will be understood from how it will formally open on Tuesday 20 August in the Senate.
The leader of the League, Matteo Salvini, who he seems to have repented that he has virtually opened it, will he confirm the no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte or will he make the most sensational reversal in a desperate attempt to remain in the government and to mend with the Five Stars? And Conte, who in recent days has suddenly regained some courage and some autonomy, he will try to mend with Salvini and with the League or will he come clean and deepen the rift between former government allies? And the Quirinal? How will the President of the Republic regulate himself in the face of an unexpected and unpredictable crisis like that of August XNUMXth?
Only in the next few days will it be possible to understand something more about theevolution of the crisis, but, compared to Salvini's initial gamble, that by sending Conte home he hoped to capitalize on his electoral support and rush to early elections, something starts to move.
Among the many possible scenarios, two – those desired by Salvini – seem at least for now to be in clear decline. On the eve of the confrontation in the Senate, both the Lega-Cinque Stelle reconciliation and the use of early elections they are not among the most popular solutions.
Salvini would make false cards, even at the cost of losing his face, to mend relations with the Five Stars and remain at the Viminale keeping all the ministers of the League in the Government, but both Conte and the Five Stars do not seem to be moved in the face of attempts at self-criticism and requests for forgiveness from the now somewhat bruised leader of the League. And yesterday the meeting of the pentastellati top management at the Grillo house seemed to put a stone on the alliance with Salvini, branding him as "unreliable". But even recourse to early elections, which will depend on the evolution of the crisis and which will obviously be up to the Head of State to decide, does not seem to be at the top of the wishes of parliamentarians. For two reasons: one obvious, the other entirely political.
The obvious reason why, except for the League, no one burns with the desire to run to the vote – even if the secretary of the Pd, Nicola Zingaretti remains open but appears in the minority after the pro Ursula pronouncement of the former premier Romano Prodi – is that nobody wants to give up a seat in Parliament with the risk of not returning. But the political reason that seems to cool the thrill of the vote is that the surprise move by former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi ("The most important thing to do is block Salvini's way in the interest of the country in a very difficult moment for the economy ”) seems to have opened the eyes of even the most distracted: why pave the way for those who, like Salvini, could win the next elections by storm, conquer the leadership of the Government, of the two Chambers and of the Quirinale and then take us out of the euro and from the Europe?
But if the re-edition of the Lega-Cinque Stelle government and recourse to early elections do not seem, at present, to be the most probable solutions, the final result of the crisis remains shrouded in fog.
The week that is about to begin and Tuesday's appointment in the Senate could be decisive even if the crisis will not be short-lived because there are still many variables in the field but, among the many, three seem to be the main solutions on the table, with different probabilities of success.
- ONE COLOR COUNT with external parliamentary support – In the face of the divorce between Lega and Cinque Stelle it is not certain that Conte will leave the scene and, if he receives a new assignment from Sergio Mattarella and finds the necessary parliamentary support, including external (Pd? Forza Italia?) he could give life to a monochromatic government supported by the Five Stars with the commitment to complete the constitutional reform based on the reduction of parliamentarians - which means postponing the elections for at least six months - and to prepare the budget maneuver necessary to avoid the VAT increase. It is the solution that Giuliano Ferrara has been recommending for days from the columns of the Foglio and he has some chance of success.
- INSTITUTIONAL GOVERNMENT based on the Five Star-Pd axis - It is the goal indicated by Renzi but also by many other leaders of the Democratic Party and by the president of +Europe, Bruno Tabacci: to bar Salvini's way, avoid early elections and give rise to a Government that approves the budget maneuver avoiding the increase in VAT and the reduction in the number of parliamentarians. A government that would be based on the political understanding between the Five Stars and the Democratic Party and that would be open to the support of other parliamentary forces (Forza Italia? Leu?) who oppose Salvini's plan. It is not an easy prospect but neither is it impossible, even if the Democratic Party - which however has yet to convince itself of the goodness of the choice suggested by Renzi - would not like Conte's stay at Palazzo Chigi (the appointment as European commissioner is hypothesized for the Prime Minister) would prefer another more institutional prime minister and would ask for a downsizing of Deputy Prime Minister Luigi Di Maio.
- GOVERNMENT OF LEGISLATURE centered on a strong political agreement between the Democratic Party and the Five Stars not only for the emergency, as the institutional government would be, but for the next three years. It is the prospect invoked by Zingaretti but also the most difficult because it would require a political agreement between the Five Stars and the Democratic Party based not only on the next budget maneuver and the reduction in the number of parliamentarians but on a program that addresses all the main problems of the country on which the distances between the two contracting parties are often abysmal. At present it seems the least probable prospect in this legislature but politics, as we know, is the art of the possible and the impossible.
Hopefully one point will not be forgotten in the next government negotiations even if it may seem utopian: first the interests of Italy and only after those of the various political parties.
