The day of ECB has arrived and is expected to make its first consecutive rate cut in 13 years. If this move is already priced in, it will be the outlook for monetary policy that will be the focus of traders' attention as they wonder how accommodative it can still be. European stocks are seen opening cautiously. The asian bags are overall positive in the wake of the good performance of Wall Street and the good performance of technology stocks where the stellar accounts of the Taiwanese giant stand out TMSC.
In New York, the Dow Jones marks the third all-time high in four days. Nvidia +3%
A day of gains for the New York Stock Exchange, which closed trading with a sharp rise in contrast to the weak performance of European stock markets. The Dow who reached the third all-time high in four days with a +0,8%. Along the same lines, the'S&P-500 makes a small leap forward of 0,47%, reaching 5.842 points. Almost unchanged the Nasdaq 100 (+0,07%); the S&P 100 was slightly positive (+0,42%). Nvidia gains 3,13%. The best performers in the S&P 500 were the utilities (+2,03%), financials (+1,22%) and materials (+0,83%) sectors. Sector rotation led to the rise of the Russell 2000 index of small caps, which came close to its highest level in the last three years. In the post-market, Expedia has risen to the indiscretions of the Financial Times an interest of Uber. Watch out today for U.S. retail sales and earnings data. Netflix, also to obtain information on the mood of consumers.
Dollar rises against euro on monetary policies and Trump polls
In the foreign exchange market the dollar rose on the back of improved forecasts for Trump's run for US president. Trump's tariff, fiscal and immigration policies are considered inflationary and therefore negative for bonds and positive for the dollar. The euro is stuck was at $1,0862 and stuck near its lowest since early August. After all, the single currency reflects the ECB's rate-cutting policy: it has already fallen by 2,4% in October and the interest rate markets are pricing in major cuts in Europe next year compared to the United States, despite US rates being at 4,75% and European rates at 3,5%.
Investors expect Trump to deliver a strong economy, fewer Fed rate cuts, and softer rules for cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin rose 15% in a week to $67.615. Gold settled at $2.677 an ounce, just below record levels.
Il Petroleum is recovering from two-week lows, with attention on developments in the Middle East and China's stimulus plans. Brent crude rose 0,27% to $74,42 a barrel, while WTI crude rose 0,37% to $70,62 a barrel. Both have fallen 6-7% so far this week, after OPEC and the International Energy Agency cut their demand forecasts for 2024 and 2025.
In Asia, TSMC stands out: profits sharply up and above consensus
Le chinese bags At the end of the session they reduced the initial increase with the CSI 300 index of the stock markets Shanghai and Shenzhen which only gains 0,1%. The high remains volatility in the securities segment real estate company with the CSI 300 Real Estate down 5% today from +5% yesterday.
Chinese authorities have added another piece of guidance to the aid package: the support program for Real estate projects started and not finished (white list): The allocation rises to 4.000 trillion yuan (562 billion dollars) from about 2,23.000 trillion yuan already allocated. The aim is to have unfinished homes completed and handed over to buyers, who have been exasperated and agitated for a couple of years now. But there was no new gesture to excite the markets about a significant recovery in a sector where the squeeze on lending had triggered a wave of defaults, while falling prices had shaken household confidence.
Outside mainland China, the stock exchange Hong Kong is up 0,8%. The Hang Seng Index had rebounded 3% at the start of the session, after having lost about 4,5% in the previous three sessions. Yesterday, Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu anticipated a Simplifying the IPO process, an increase in the lending limit for the home buyers has always been reduction of duties on imported liquor.
Spotlight on Tsmc (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) especially after disappointing forecasts from chip equipment supplier ASML triggered a sharp decline in semiconductor stocks earlier in the week. Tsmc surged 54% inNet income in the third quarter, at 325,3 billion dollars from 211 billion a year earlier and above the 300,2 billion estimated by analysts, a sign of the increase in semiconductor demand used in applications of artificial intelligence. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, the world's largest contract chipmaker and a major supplier to Apple and Nvidia, saw its profit rise . Among Asia's big tech names, Alibaba Group + 1,8% Tencent Holdings +2%%.
The Nikkei 225 Index Tokyo is down 0,5%. Yen at 149,4, roughly the same level as yesterday. In September, the Japanese exports they recorded the biggest drop since February 2021, recording weakening global demand. Exports fell 1,7 percent from a year ago, led by automobiles, mineral fuels and construction machinery, sliding into negative growth for the first time since November last year. Economists had expected a 0,9 percent increase. Imports rose 2,1 percent, while the trade deficit narrowed to 294,3 billion yen ($2 billion).
European stocks awaiting ECB
European stock markets expected to be little moved with the Eurostoxx50 future up 0,06%.
Finnish telecom equipment supplier Nokia today announced a 9% rise in third-quarter operating profit and said many areas of its business are now turning a corner, even if some continue to suffer from market weakness. Comparable earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) rose to 454 million euros ($492,73 million) from 418 million euros a year earlier, beating the 424 million euros expected by analysts in an LSEG survey.
Stellantis is recalling 44.500 hybrid crossover SUVs worldwide because the vehicles' brake pedals may come loose and stop working. The recall includes 21.069 vehicles in the United States, about 2.280 in Canada, 134 in Mexico and about 20.987 outside North America. The White House said the Italian-French group must honor commitments to the United Auto Workers union and to communities affected by the plant closures in the U.S.
Today's macro data
to 11 trade balance in August of the Eurozone (previous: 15,5 billion euros) and of theItaly (previous: 6,7 billion euros). Nagli United States at 14pm the weekly requests for unemployment benefits (previous: +33.000 units to 258.000), the retail sales in September (previous: +0,1% month-on-month; consensus: +0,3% month-on-month), the index Philadelphia October Fed (previous: 1,7 points; consensus: 3 points), at 15:15 p.m. industrial production in September (previous: +0,8% month-on-month; consensus: -0,1% month-on-month) and at 16 p.m. company stocks in August (previous: +0,4% month-on-month; consensus: +0,3% month-on-month) and the index Nahb in October (previous: 41 points). In the meantime, the euro is down 0,30% at $1,085.
