Il month of November of financial markets starts off on the right foot, despite a terrifying international scenario, some quarterly reports worse than estimates and a less than encouraging macroeconomic picture. The European squares they close today anyway rising, in tune with the positive trend on Wall Street in the American morning.
Business Square it appreciates by 0,88% e missing of a I blow 28 thousand base points reached in the session, still doing a little better than Frankfurt + 0,75% Paris + 0,65% Amsterdam + 0,51% Madrid + 0,61% London + 0,29%.
Supporting global sentiment (the closing was also positive in Asia) is the possibility that the aggressive monetary policy seen during the year in Europe and the USA has come to an end. This evening at 19,30 pm Italian time, the Federal Reserve will decide on rates and the market is betting on a new stop, while still listening to Jerome Powell to understand whether the cost of money could be adjusted upwards again in the coming months. In an optimistic trend, purchases of government bonds also return.
The dollar rises and oil appreciates
While waiting the dollar strengthens while the 'euro weakens, for a change around 1,0533. The Petroleum rises, balancing between the war in the Middle East which pushes prices higher and the disappointment with the performance of manufacturing activity in China, after the October contraction seen yesterday. Today a new disappointment comes from the US ISM manufacturing, while weekly oil inventories in the US were higher than expected.
Il Brent, expiring January 2024, rises by 0,8% to 85,7 dollars a barrel; Texas crude, December 2023, shows a similar increase to $81,6 per barrel.
Ahead of Powell, prices rise and interest rates fall T Bond, with the ten-year bond falling around +4,8%. Also encouraging purchases of US government bonds is the fact that the Treasury Department says it will slow the pace of increases in auctions of longer-dated debt in the November-January quarter and expects to need another quarter of increases to satisfy your financing needs.
The manufacturing sector is collapsing in the US
Today's important macroeconomic page sees two important US data also from a Fed perspective: the higher-than-expected drop in ISM manufacturing and a new increase in payrolls in October, but below market estimates.
On to the further contraction of manufacturing The recent strikes by the United Auto Workers (UAW) union may have had an impact, having had an impact on new orders (significantly declining) and employment. According to data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), the manufacturing PMI it then fell last month to 46,7 from 49 in September, which was the highest value since November 2022. This is the twelfth consecutive month in which the PMI is below the threshold of 50, which separates growth and contraction, it is the longest period since the 2007-2009 recession.
On the other hand the private companies, last month, added 113.000 workers to their payrolls, versus estimates of an increase of 150.000.
Piazza Affari shines on All Saints' Day
Despite a half-service session, with the banks closed for the All Saints' Day, Piazza Affari ends a brilliant day, obscured only by the collapse of Iveco Group -8,9% after the quarterly. The company saw net profit double to 94 million euros, with an adjusted net profit of 84 million, above estimates (74 million), but disappointed on the revenue front. Furthermore, the negative data on free cash flow of 375 million was not liked, while observers took the increase in guidance for granted.
The most effervescent title on the list was nexi +4,02%, which has been in the spotlight for some time due to rumors of ever new purchase candidates. The latest rumors are from Sole 24 Ore according to which there would be a third group involved and formed by SilverLake with the US financial group Hellman & Friedman (H&F), already an important shareholder of Nexi with 20%.
Among the best performances of the day was that of Telecom Italy +3,69%, recently observed specially for the open game of network sales.
File another cash session too Stellantis +1,94%, while recovering Tenaris +1,82% and are the banks are positive, starting from Bper +2,25%.
Among the titles in red: Cnh -1,58%. Finally, after the recent gains, profits were recorded on Prysmian -1,1%, Amplifon -0,53%, Campari -0,57%.
Declining spreads and yields
The session was positive forbond, still in the wake of the slowdown in inflation in October seen yesterday. The spread between ten-year BTPs and Bunds of the same duration it is at 189 basis points (-1,15) and the rates fall to +4,64% and +2,76% respectively.
